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If Russia invaded us in the morning, who would come to our aid?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,157 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    For anyone interested in a pretty detailed overview of the current Russian military forces, and why they're underperforming in Ukraine I'd recommend a YouTube channel called Perun (not Perun Gaming, same guy different topic)

    The channel doesn't do any of the flashy nonsense that other channels do, he goes into pretty in depth analysis and tries to only use confirmed open source data. His videos are fairly heavy going, usually an hour each of PowerPoint slides, no flashy graphics. But he does present the stuff well and personally I find it very interesting (and yes, I'll admit I'm boring as hell 😁)

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,139 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Our main 'advantage' would be knowledge of the terrain and a supportive population also a nucleus of weapons and those willing to fight. No Ally will give aid if the local population is not fighting.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,250 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    We also have the problem that we're surrounded by water. Makes us difficult to invade by land, but also makes resupply in volume difficult and easy to interdiction by an invader

    Apart from the rather long land border we have with the NATO country up north!



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,157 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    Yes absolutely true, a lot of the NATO support for Ukraine wouldn't have happened unless there was a clear willingness to resist from the Ukrainian populace

    Images from early in the war of people lining up at volunteer centers, elderly women being trained to fire assault rifles and crowds of civilians welding vehicle barricades and preparing the old Molotov cocktail welcoming gifts were very powerful. I think without those then NATO countries would have been far more hesitant to send support

    The same would have to apply here. I'm a bit council if the Irish population's willingness to risk their lives against a superior for, however history has shown that when people's homes and way of life is under threat they suddenly become very enthusiastic about dishing out some violence in response. So that's something we'd have to find out if it ever happened, which is hopefully never

    I'm not sure lack of knowledge about the terrain is going to slow down an invading Russian army much. Slightly bizarre bit of trivia is that the best maps of Europe were made by the Soviets and often had a lot more detail than maps available in those countries

    Apparently they had cartographers undercover in many European states taking a lot of picnics near military bases and critical infrastructure

    I'll leave it to your imagination as to the reason for this 😉

    I don't know if they included Ireland in that exercise but I can't imagine why they'd skip us. As I said, there's some strategic value in this little island on the edge of Europe and the Atlantic

    The Russian federation inherited all that effort and I'm not sure our geography has changed so dramatically in 30 years as to make those maps useless

    The Russian army should also be capable of dealing with pretty challenging terrain and unless they drove the 1st Guards Tank Army directly into a bog they should be fine

    Although in fairness, I would not be at all surprised if Russian military command ordered an entire tank division into an Irish bog.

    Historically the biggest threat to the Russian military has been it's own command, and the war in Ukraine has demonstrated this is still very much the case

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,955 ✭✭✭Lewis_Benson


    America would help, they love us.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8 Didier


    Some people would come.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,157 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    True, but for that to be useful it's based on the assumption that Northern Ireland wasn't invaded as well (honestly I'm not sure the Tories would go to war over Belfast) and the Russian invaders would be happy to allow NATO forces to be landed in Northern Ireland to be used against them


    They could interdict any shops crossing over the Irish sea and it's anyone's guess as to whether they'll start shooting at each other. I mean if the Russian government has decided to invade Ireland, we can probably assume that sanity got off the train a few stops ago


    So it's a question of NATO would risk starting WWIII over Ireland and putting their ships in a position to be fired upon. As I said, I think the prospect of a Russian foothold in a strategically valuable position would force NATO's hand, but we're never really going to know unless it happens

    Again, I'm looking at this through the lens that the war in Ukraine never happened and NATO this (at least publicly) viewed Russia as a peer nation in terms of military power


    Nowadays I think there's a lot less fear of the Red tide sweeping across Europe and crossing the Rhine in 3 days.

    Frankly I wouldn't be surprised tomorrow if Poland and Lithuania decided to retake Kaliningrad and sink the Russian Baltic fleet because they felt they could get away with it

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,250 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Westminster doesn't give a damn about NI but they are not about to let Russia invade it without a significant armed response - nothing would convince me that the UK would not go to war over Belfast. Equally there is nothing Russia could do to stop transit of vessels between GB and NI without opening fire and same end then.

    I mean, you are correct that all logic and sanity will have gone out the window in the scenario that this is happening at all but I can't see a scenario where we don't have either support flowing in from NI or the UK and then NATO directly involved.



  • Registered Users Posts: 82,283 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    All you lads ever do is piss and moan about the US. Why should we



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,955 ✭✭✭Lewis_Benson




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  • Registered Users Posts: 82,283 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Eh, not feeling it no. That's your best appeal to involve the US in a nuclear war?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,955 ✭✭✭Lewis_Benson


    No.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,664 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    the ukraine war unlikely? its been going on for 8 years at this stage



  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The full scale invasion part of it. It would be similar if NK launched a full scale invasion of SK.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,139 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Because of distance and thier naval capability a Russian invasion would probably, if it happened at all, be a targeted strike on airports, ports and suchlike. They wouldn't have the numbers due to supply chain difficulty to hold the whole country in the face of any determined resistance.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,830 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Pretty much the Irish defence strategy in a nutshell.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,157 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    Our defence is our neutrality and the fact that we're at the edge of Europe

    If you look at European history, there's basically two types of country. Countries that invaded each other, and the countries that were in between the countries invading each other

    We're not exactly in either category since we're not on the way to anywhere, except maybe America

    There's pretty much only one country which conquered us and to a large extent that stuck for centuries because no-one else was nearby and bothered fighting the English for Ireland

    Yeah we got invaded by the Spanish, but that didn't exactly end well for them. And the French tried it once or twice before giving up


    A lot of defense policy starts with taking a very realistic look at what the threats around you are. Due to geography, we're only really under threat from a couple of nearby nations

    Rather than maintain the military force needed to stave off an invasion our government has chosen to pursue a path of nuanced neutrality and to ensure that we maintain good relationships with neighboring countries

    People are of course entitled to their opinions on that, but nevertheless it is a strategy, and we're at 100 years without getting invaded or being at war with our neighbours, which is more than just about any other European country can say (Spain, Switzerland and some of the microstates are the only others I can think of)

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,139 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    'because no-one else was nearby and bothered fighting the English for Ireland. Yeah we got invaded by the Spanish, but that didn't exactly end well for them. And the French tried it once or twice before giving up'

    I think what you said shows that Spain and France were bothered fighting them on our side?

    Anyway neutrality is not a defence in itself.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,955 ✭✭✭Lewis_Benson


    Michael D would walk up to putin and slap him right in the stomach.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,139 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    True but he might be accused of bullying someone smaller than himself.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,580 ✭✭✭Montage of Feck


    What has happened to the Germans? Once the most fearsome military power in Europe and now complete wusses in the face of Russian aggression. Maybe Merkel wasn't the great leader I had believed her to be.

    🙈🙉🙊



  • Registered Users Posts: 728 ✭✭✭20Wheel


    They just announced a 130 bn euro defense bump.

    And have sent mlrs, gepards, iris t, pzh2000's and billions in small arms and anti tank weapons.

    Thats what.

    Putin is a dictator. Putin should face justice at the Hague. All good Russians should work to depose Putin. Russias war in Ukraine is illegal and morally wrong.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,157 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    Well they only attacked us to get to England

    My point was that you can count on one hand the number of times Ireland got invaded by European powers, whereas countries like Poland or Belgium have at time struggled to go a decade without being invaded twice


    I'm not saying we're invasion proof, far from it. More that we're not really convenient to be invaded


    Most of our strategic value would come from being at the edge of the Atlantic

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,157 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    They launched a massive campaign of destruction and death across Europe causing the most devastating war in history. Not to mention the almost total annihilation of their own country in the process

    Afterwards they were a tad fed up of war so the German military has only aimed to be a defensive force since then


    It was only with the intervention of Western governments and the threat of attack from the Soviet Union that West Germany even bothered forming a military, and spread BS like the clean Wehrmacht theory in the process to improve public opinion of the new army


    If you're looking for more recent developments, the German military has suffered from deep procurement issues since the end of the cold war. They spend a significant amount of money on sustaining older equipment

    Plans for replacement often get cancelled or delayed and defence budget spending is often for a single year, making it difficult and expensive to sign long term supply contracts. There's a lot of questions about whether the announced spending will be guaranteed for years to come or whether it'll be a short lived sugar hit

    Consider that the French military manages to field an aircraft carrier with expeditionary capacity, a nuclear submarine fleet and it's own nuclear arsenal for less than the German defence budget. There's clearly a difference in value for money between both nations

    There's also the fact that German public opinion is very anti war. People supported Merkel being soft on Putin because they didn't want to start WW3. In the end they were wrong, but hindsight is always 20/20 isn't it


    It's worth noting that in school, Germans aren't really taught about their military victories during WW2. The school system doesn't want to glorify German military accomplishments, instead focusing on the horrors unleashed by the Nazi's, their incompetent management of the government and economy. This contributes to a generally very anti war mindset and consequently a relaxed attitude towards defence

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



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