Scottish independence

I agree that in that 8 years a lot has changed, and fully agree that the SNP are correct to push the narrative that the material change that was Brexit should be a reason for another referendum.

But it's still a relatively short period and in the polls in that time it's not as if independence has been surging, yes it's been on top, but has it ever gone beyond 60% ?

But comparing Westminsters refusal to allow another referendum to illegal Russian votes in Ukraine is just way off the mark.

From what I saw they will keep sterling for a yet to be defined length of time, so things like interest rates will be in the hands of the BOE rather than anything in Scotland.

Then at some point they will have their own currency.

But at the same time they plan to be in the EU.

Now I'm no expert but I thought a aspect of joining the EU was also adopting the Euro, it may not be a hard and fast requirement but if Scotland want to join the EU with their own currency doesn't help their position.

The relevant requirement is actually "adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union". There's a great gap, if you want it, between that and adopting the euro; at most it requires a country to join the euro when the euro convergence criteria are met, but even this is flexible. Sweden joined the EU in 1995, for example, when this was already the requirement (it dates from 1993) and it has yet to adopt the euro. Nor is it under any particular pressure to do so. But it does pursue an interest rate policy of effectively mirroring ECB interest rates; this tends to stabilise the SEK:EUR exchange rate.

So, flexibility is available. If they were to join the EU while still conducting the bulk of their international trade with rump-UK, they might wish to pursue an exchange-rate policy which sought to stabilise a Scottish pound exchange rate with both the euro and sterling; the EU would be understanding of that.

Its a requirement of any new members after 1992, but Sweden have so far managed to avoid meeting the criteria to change over for two decades and still have no intent to do so.

There’s an interesting perspective in this recent article, about the notion of Scotland exiting the Union and rejoining the EU:

If Scotland leaves the UK that will further complicate matters as the EU will not accept a new country entering the EU which has an uncontrolled border with England outside the EU, perhaps uses the English currency, has English nuclear submarines in Scottish waters, and will seek to have its haggis and eat it by wanting to keep the same trade, investment relations with England as it would like to have with the EU. The high state officials I spoke to were just puzzled by any question of Scotland rejoining the EU in the event of secession. No-one in Bercy or the Quai seems to have considered it an important question. 

I found that surprising, as these French über technocrats are usually thinking about most everything a decade ahead, all the more so under Macron’s tenure, whose European ambitions are well-known by now. Maybe it’s a bandwidth issue.

Lot of haggisims from the SNP.

As part of the EU they will have two border checkpoints with England on the M6 and A1 but will leave 22 more road crossing upoliced.

But I'm sure like the Brexiteers did they will claim such anomalies are not a problem and some yet to be invented technology will solve the any potential issues.

Matt Qvortrup, a politics professor who specialises in democracy and referendums, told the Sunday Herald that the SNP can only win a Scottish independence referendum by being more populist.

Can't see Sturgeon's SNP going down that road.

It would be great if the ruling is that a referendum can be called, but it seems unlikely if the pundits are to be believed. What I'm wondering is if the verdict is negative, will that energise the Scottish public, or are people so jaded with the doom and gloom of politics right now that it will be met with a collective shrug?

It’s no surprise at all that it was rejected, ultimately leaving Scotland trapped.

I suspect the Scottish government knew it was likely to fail, so what’s their next move? Continue to play the long game or go for more extreme measures(e.g hold a non legally binding ref to pile political pressure onto Westminster)?

100% correct.

The reverse psychology of galvanising previously ambivalent people, by telling them they are banned from doing something by a remote body in a different nation, is the surest way to bring that something about.

Sturgeon playing a masterful long game with all this.

Its good that there is finally a legal proof of how unfair it is and I think those in England on both the left and right really have no clue about why anyone would want independence (highly ironic from brexit types). Even those on the left on the likes of r/ukpolitics are usually vehemently anti SNP or scottish independence but ive never seen anything close to a good moral argument against self determination from anyone in this case, it always falls back to emotion over the survival of the Union even from the most rabid anti royalist socialists.

I am personally rather pleased with the court's decision.

I also think that Sturgeon and the SNP should focus on her own domestic problems and issues inside of Scotland rather than ringing the independence bell all the time, whilst asking and wanting more money from Westminster.

I am not saying that an independent Scotland can't live by it's own, but it would certainly be a mess if it's done by the SNP.

The real problem in Scotland is the SNP and it's only the SNP's domestic failures which bring Scotland only closer into dependence of Westminster.

There is a colonial 'the natives are not fit to look after themselves' bang off that tbh.

I can't see this doing anything but increasing the independence vote. If it was a deliberate effort to expose what is at the heart of the Union it could be a masterstroke.

The biggest mistake the Scottish ever made was not voting Yes to Independence the last time they had the chance too.

Of course they could never have seen Brexit coming or the disasterus Governments and leadership or shall I say lack or leadership that the UK would have after Brexit.

If they could I am sure they would have voted for Independence then and be on there way to joining the EU.

I am really not sure how they are going to get out of the mess that is the UK now. Maybe they could do as another poster said and have a referendum anyway against the wishes of there London masters or they could go the IRA route if they were really that desperate for it. But that might not be seen as too good by the EU either

I think they will have to try and compromise with there masters in London someway.

Scotland is not an independent coun ry and the Scottish government gets their budget set by Westminster so your stance that the issues in Scotland only pertain to Scotland and have nothing to do with how Westminster runs things is wide off the mark

People had different lifestyles and expectations 100 years ago. I doubt that any Scot would be prepared for that, just for independence's sake.

If I would have lived in Ireland back then, I doubt that I myself would have stayed around or would have had anything to celebrate. Even in the DeValera years, Irish emmigrated in masses. Times were not that rosy in Ireland back then.

"How is Scotland to achieve independence"

To me, there is only one route open now and that is a scenario after a Westminster election where the SNP votes are needed to form a majority, and a referendum is the price of their support.

It might be the only route but it is incredibly unrealistic, Starmer has ruled out an SNP partnership due to the price being an indy ref and the tories will also be unlikely to agree to such terms, also I doubt the SNP would ever support the tories regardless of the terms.

But even so this is hardly a democratic path to independence if all they can hope for is for English voters splitting in such a perfect way that the lib dems arent a viable option and only the SNP can help with a majority.