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If Russia invaded us in the morning, who would come to our aid?

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  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Seems the general response from people that actually answered is that the Brits would out of self interest, the EU have some sort of treaty in place that has yet to be tested, the US would definitely or would steer clear.

    And some seem to think supplying weapons and humanitarian aid is the same as boots on the ground. It is not. Boots on the ground and a big nuclear stick is the only thing that will deter Putin.

    And of course this scenario is highly unlikely, but still useful to think about it. Lots of highly unlikely stuff happens all the time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,924 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    It's all the west can do without escalating the war.

    Before the war Ukraine sat on the fence politically so as not to antagonise Putin. Made no difference he invaded Crimea then Ukraine regardless.

    Ukraine had "relatively" small military before the war. It's the war that Putin created that has enlarged it. Nothing to do with the west.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,924 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Because your scenario makes no sense.

    Even when USSR was at full strength it made no sense. Even less so now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,728 ✭✭✭The J Stands for Jay


    Ukraine had about 8 years warning, and they decided to prepare for it. I doubt we'd have a government that would prepare



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,924 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    More like you want to dicuss strategies to deal with what happens when you sail to the edge of your flat earth.

    What answer are you hoping for? You can see the resources going into the Ukraine. You can see the naval resources in NATO.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,887 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    The Brits would come to our aid, of course. Silly question.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It is never going to happen, but it would be worth it ust to se the look on the faces on the Boyd Barrets of this world as Russian tanks park on the front lawn on their "Average industrial wage" house.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,546 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande



    Since you are dealing in hypothetical scenarios, Russia is a land power, artillery is their M.O., the Russians would never invade Ireland. It's an island country next to the biggest US aircraft carrier in Europe (i.e. the UK), easy to block off the country and they don't have a suitable navy unless you count the oligarchs yachts (Russians spent $4.1 billion on yachts and $3.x billion on their navy.). The actual Russian military view of Ireland is that they should deny the Americans the use of landing strips here using nuclear weapons as part of a larger conflict.

    If you want a hypothetical scenario to chew on. Ireland is only strategic to Britain. Consider a case that relations between Britain and the UK & NI broke down to the extent that sanctions are applied to Britain by the EU including a military and economic blockade. With access to trading routes impeded and food supply threatened, Britain would have no option but to invade Ireland to secure trade routes and boost food supply. Who would come to our aid? France, Spain, maybe Germany? History says such "allies" only make token efforts.

    For arguments sake, lets consider alternative history, say time travel is a thing, Think Cuba. It's 1966 and a Marxist revolution led by Paul Murphy, Richard Boyd Barrett with a guerilla army supplied by Sinn Fein (still National socialist Marxist party) manages to seize power with a significant portion of the population backing them and declare the country an international socialist Soviet state? What would happen then?

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,536 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Your view on this is overly black and white.

    Are you suggesting that the only way to really help Ukraine is to get in there with an invasions of Russia and/or deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO troops in Ukraine??

    Of course providing 90+billion of so of aid isn't the same as boots on the ground but it is literally the ONLY thing that can be done that wouldn't result in a serious escalation of the conflict - an escalation that could very easily go nucleur.

    But to suggest that providing aid, providing safe shelter, increasing sanctions and so on, isn't actively helping Ukraine, is to be obtuse in your viewpoint.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    the same countries that would come to Ireland's aid would be the same ones that Ireland would assist if they were invaded.

    No one. Although Ukraine might send a few med kits and a couple of rosary beads.

    What would happen, is the rest of the world would impose massive sanctions on Russia, NATO would ship an unprecedented amount of military to UK side of the border and everyone could have a good laugh at Clare Daly and Mick Wallace.



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  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The weapons systems are the things that are actually making a difference to Ukraine not being overrun by the Russians. Sending in actual troops is what an ally does in time of war. Of course this would trigger WW3. The same arguments apply with NATO members BTW. Would the US or the EU countries trigger a nuclear war to protect Estonia for example? Or just redefine "support" to mean the kind of hands off support Ukraine are getting?

    The other stuff is just window dressing. A bit like the the US Republicans thoughts and prayers. Putin has a huge and growing war chest financed by ongoing European oil and gas purchases, their own advanced armaments industry and access to Chinese, Iranian and NK hardware that far outweighs any sanctions. We already provide safe shelter for many people that have no military or political alliances with us, so this isn't even a benefit.

    We could expect weapons systems but who is able to use them?



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,536 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    So 90 plus Billion is just window dressing?

    You don't think the support the Ukrainains have from the rest of the world (outside of weapons systems) is making any difference whatsoever?

    Of course it's a benefit - imagine the rest of the world actually telling Ukraine since March - sorry guys, you are on your own.

    The rest of the world has, in as safe a way as possible, heavily support Ukraine. I don't see any difference were it us, should Russia decide to invade this country, and again, all evidence would suggest that the assistance we would get would be greater than that which Ukraine is getting.

    Sanctions take time but to suggest they have no effect is daft.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,140 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    We have a perfectly adequate Defense Force....what exactly are we defending against?



  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]



    Europe spent $46 billion on Russian oil and gas in only 2 months : https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/28/business/eu-fossil-fuel-exports-russia-ukraine-energy-intl/index.html

    What's your source for 90 billion? This says that Kiev have only recieved €3 billion to date from the EU, and 18 billion is planned for the entirety of 2023 : https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/10/21/eu-to-provide-ukraine-with-18-billion-in-financial-assistance-for-2023-says-von-der-leyen



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    Because many Irish live on hopium rather than invest in our defense forces.


    They seem not to take the threat seriously...and yet the world is changing before our eyes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    You know Russian warships entered our waters recently?


    Russoa now has launched a European war, the Soviet union didnt dare to do this.


    Part of the reason was because we are not in NATO and do not have a proper navy or air force.


    Ireland is a convenient target to mess aroind with because there is no NaTO defense agreement yet it would stir up a lot of concern in the EU and in the UK. Could be as simple as sailing into our ports or around our island.


    How does Britain solve this problem for us exactly?



  • Registered Users Posts: 881 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    So true, which is why we should get behind England during this world cup - Its coming home



  • Registered Users Posts: 834 ✭✭✭Heart Break Kid


    Before you even get to who would come to our aid. Imagine how hard it would be to perform a naval or airborne invasion on the far west coast of Ireland.

    Unless they got look and landed in Kerry, they'd struggle in **** roads for miles. They'd have to deal with an extremely hostile population albeit not armed, extremely annoying. Your not landing in Dublin as you couldn't get the Russian navy in the Irish Sea without sparking interest from the Brits.



  • Registered Users Posts: 521 ✭✭✭Hungry Burger


    We have a Naval Service that is in a shambles with manning and can’t crew ships to send to sea, and the army don’t have enough soldiers to send overseas. So no, we don’t have a perfectly adequate Defence Forces! Nowhere near.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,546 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Function of the Irish defense forces is to protect the state from its internal enemies.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,768 ✭✭✭✭BattleCorp


    I couldn't see the UK allowing us to be taken over by the Russians. I'd say they'd step in. I'm thinking the Cuban missile crisis. Like the Americans, they wouldn't accept Russian nuclear missiles being based a couple of minutes away (or less).

    There'd also be a lot of pressure on the US to step in given the links between the two countries.

    I wonder have the Brits a nuclear missile or two stationed in the North?

    We'd have precious little guns to form some sort of guerilla resistance given that the Government are making it harder and harder to have a gun in this country.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,924 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    Putin can't make or buy what he needs to win the Ukraine war. Even before the war his armed forces were many decades behind the west in term of technology. He's burned through his most modern weapons (which weren't that modern). The only thing that has him still in the battle is sheer weight of numbers. Even there he's used his best troops as cannon fodder.

    That's what it cost him to wage war on his border. Never mind Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,924 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    They were pulling out the sister ship to the one that got sunk in the Ukraine. It was in such a sorry state of maintenance that it could neither defend itself or save it self once hit.

    Some minor harassment around Ireland is just Putin trying to save some face after having his navies butt kicked in the Ukraine.

    It's a non event.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,870 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    If irc from past threads you are one of the many extremely Eurosceptic accounts posting here (?) so you personally don't rate our being a member of EU as worth much and don't believe it helps Ireland in your kind of silly unlikely scenario. That is a you problem. The EU is definitely not the UN. I don't think the other members will, or even can just sit back and do nothing effectively (while Russian military is conquering an EU member state) any more than they could hang Ireland out to dry + let the Brits work their will on us during Brexit (also the expectation of and very confident prediction made by the Eurosceptic posters here). It's the principle & example that will matter when it comes to the reaction by the others.

    Leaving aside all that + pretending the rest of the EU do nothing collectively, where is Ireland located? Our 3 closest neighbours are US to the West (yes a long way a way but we are located "between" them and their Western European allies), the UK and France to East and S. East. They are 3 members of NATO all with fairly large armies, navies, airforces, enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world etc. and are currently...not on best of terms with Russia at all at all to put it very mildly since the dire events of Feb this year.

    They are just not going to lie back and tolerate the Russians taking a lease by force on a shiny new unsinkable aircraft carrier between them all IMO, and what Irish people actually think about it (e.g. if for some mad reason we are delighted with our new Putin overlords!) probably won't matter much. They will try and remove them, probably will do it quite quickly & easily too given evidence of Russia's military capability in Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,924 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    What's more the Russians have to fly/sail past those nations to get here.

    It would be tactical insanity. Charge of the light brigade ironically.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    It would also make a base to attack France. Think Cuban Missile Crisis. And the French have subs with missiles.

    At this stage Russia's GDP is probably about the same as Spain's. Like the French they have a long history of nuisance neighbours from our neck of the wood and wouldn't relish another.


    With all that's going on in Ukraine, I'm half surprised the Chinese haven't moved into Mongolia which used to be a Soviet backed state.



  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I am not extremely Eurosceptic. I am a proud EU citizen and voted in favour of all the EU referenda and the first Lisbon treaty. Because we were made to vote again, I voted no the second time. If that makes me "an extreme Eurosceptic" then so be it.

    Our EU membership is worth a lot economically, especially post Brexit. That much is blatantly obvious.

    Pointing out problems in something does not make you anti that thing. I don't believe in unconditional worship of particular ideas, ideologies or institutions unlike some on here. I was shocked at the EU triggering Article 13 without even notifying Dublin.

    Anyway, weren't we assured that the EU wasn't a military alliance for Lisbon 2? Or is that now in the bin?

    This thread is nothing whatsoever to do with the EU. I don't foresee or expect any direct military support because of our EU membership, as it implies we would have to provide direct military support were say Poland invaded, whether we wanted to or not.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,924 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997




  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Not sure what sort of "reality check" this is? It's a standards evaluation?

    And that great supporter of socialism, the journal.ie, talking in hushed tones about NATO 😂



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  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @[Deleted User] This thread is nothing whatsoever to do with the EU. I don't foresee or expect any direct military support because of our EU membership, as it implies we would have to provide direct military support were say Poland invaded, whether we wanted to or not.


    But it someone invaded us or attacked we would get direct military support from Poland and other EU countries whether they like it or not ,

    It's a two way street,you or we cannot be expected to be protected while crying about have to send military support to another EU country.

    We need to get rid of the rediculous triple lock which allows other countries a say of any Irish defense forces deployments,we need to develop our own defense polices and infrastructure



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