So "X" - nothing to see here. Elon's in control - Part XXX

Independent external traffic analysis says that user numbers are dropping but an internal Sales FAQ says things are going great..

Which one to believe , so hard to know which one to trust.

There are multiple things at play.

Advertising spend will be decreasing across the board as the economies around the world tighten up so companies are going to want to be very sure about the return on any spend they do make.

If Twitter is unable to properly moderate the content then no advertiser is going to want their company/products appearing on the same page as some really nasty stuff posted by some troll.

On the flip side , if the "pay for blue check-mark" thing actually launches and a reasonable number of people actually sign up for it then potentially that's a plus for advertisers as you would assume that Twitter would have much better data about a paid up member than a random anonymous one making it easier to prove Ad value etc.

Now that is a huge "maybe" as it doesn't seem remotely clear how/when/if they are going to implement this nor if anyone will actually be interested in paying for it.

On balance there doesn't seem to be any easy way for Musk to drive increased ad revenue in the short to medium term and he has just saddled the company with a 20 fold increase in their debt repayments so his chances of making the company profitable are pretty darn slim.

Also interesting to see that the volume of shares traded is way up in the last week or so.

Current stock price is back to where it was 2 years ago , which was just shortly after the share price started to go nuts.

Prior to early 2020 the Tesla stock price had been bouncing along in the mid to high teens and then around March it went wild , hitting over $200 by the end of the year and getting to nearly twice that by the end of 2021.

I can absolutely see a scenario where the Tesla stock keeps declining back down to the mid double digits - ~$50 or so , which would actually be a more reasonable reflection of P/E and market share etc.

The impact that would have on Musks ability to pay the bill for Twitter would be catastrophic.

No wonder Tesla share-holders are suing him for being an "absentee landlord" as it were.