Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Won't stop unless we have a Cab style response to corruption, cronyism where state finances are directly affected

One can protect themselves against blue collar theft but completely powerless against the White collar version

What are people thinking about how much if any prices will increase by because of the new LTI limits for first-home buyers?

At first thought I was certain it would push up prices, but now, not so sure, as there are headwinds the other way with rate rises and the banks may not give everyone the x4 limit.

It may also only affect prices at the bottom end, like apartments, 3bed semis and the like. Larger detached family homes may be unmoved as those homes are not your usual first time buyer house. In fact it may close the gap, as in the entry level homes get more expensive, but the detached forever homes may stagnate in price and depending on the market over the next year or two, may even fall as rates go up.

I guess we will see.

All of a sudden An Taoiseach has his knickers in a twist about getting houses "rapidly" built. Better late than never if it does happen. Nothing to do with certain news stories over the last week of course.

Spoke with a mortgage broker today and they said that to qualify for the new x4 LTI one needs to demonstrate that you have the ability to repay back the loan amount plus the interest rate plus the stress test on top. And you have to show that ability over 6 months.

So that may dampen down things a bit as there may not be a wave of new cash chasing homes in the new year.

Example.

Couple on 100k combined

Old rule on older cheaper rates.

350,000 borrowed at 2.1% over 25 years = 1500.59

Stressed tested at an extra 2% = 1866.81

New rule on more expensive rates say 3.5% given ECB are hiking fast

400,000 borrowed at 3.5% over 25 years = 2002.49

Stress tested at an extra 2% = 2456.35

So in effect, you have to be able to demonstrate that you can save/pay the guts of 2.5k per month to borrow the new amount, as opposed to 1.85k when borrowing the lower amount. That is a big jump. To me, it's clear that not every FTB will be able to get the max amount.

We are definately entering an adjustment period where a lot of current vendors will have price expectations coming out the low interest rate environment which purchasors will no longer be able to meet.

The rule changes were changed to help prevent/reduce the effects of a correction

We spent the last month pointing fingers and having a laugh at the uk, while our central bank has been at the very same thing as kwasi and Truss. Unsustainable policies that go against the overall objective of getting inflation down. One entity with the foot on the accelerator while the other is slamming on the brakes

The same thing was done in the tech bubble burst of the noughties. Lending was loosened and led to the bankruptcy of the country from the 08 crash

This time its different and nobody saw it coming and we all went mad etc etc

I saw some last minute talk that they may not go as high as fast as this but...

"ECB raises benchmark rate by 0.75 percentage"

https://www.ft.com/content/c46e2f8d-c1c2-4ae1-9d1c-4b5dbf6f7f89

No real benefit to savers of the traditional sense, banks won't pass them on to savers

Banks dont tend to pass on savings rates nearly as much.

Add to that how punitive DIRT is, it doesnt really pay to save in this country at all, regardless of ECB rates.

Mortgage repayments is by far the bigger story

Alot better than cash invested in the stock market for this year

This year and next is about preservation not profit

Very funny to see how you are so biased in your thinking. No different from the crowd that thinks house prices will crash.