Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119804890#Comment_119804890

You could see National debt being replaced by European bonds….That will be the only option to manage the indebted countries and raise rates.

this could be the start of a Big debate on where the EU goes from here… moving away from a union to more of a federal set up.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119804991#Comment_119804991

While the labour market is still strong they won’t be able to reign in inflation as people can jump jobs for better pay.

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119805181#Comment_119805181

Sounds like a rhetorical question, cause Euro as a currency has only been with us for about 23 years. So is very new comparing the dollar. But if you search online you can find that the highest it has been in its 3.75%

But want to emphasis that I personally don’t think it will get there. I think average for the next 10 years the euro rates will be around 1.5~2% but Irish mortgage holders will pay more than most EU counterparts due to lack of competition (like we already do)

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119804418#Comment_119804418

This is when we see the end of the EU as most of us have known it. The cost of backing out of rate rises and taking the heat out of assets is populism. The EU already had problems with populists and these will get much worse if inflation is not aggressively controlled. I think they will keep going with rate rises and try to blame Putin as much as possible for the next few years of poor Eurozone growth but it is not Putin so much as it is their own incompetence.

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119805274#Comment_119805274

As I said two years ago, the only way this party ends is with the ECB perpetually rolling over its bond buying and waving that magic wand to effectively make the debt of Eurozone countries disappear. There is no repayment ever happening from countries in the Eurozone. QE under a new name, rinse and repeat to infinity or until the current crop reach retirement and the populists start to get their puppets in the head seats of the EU and ECB.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119806223#Comment_119806223

Is it really two years of you spouting rubbish such as:

-there will be no war it’s only being used to justify inflation

-why has the market reacted to a new strain of covid

-we won’t see immigration like we did before covid

-government debt will be written off

and let’s not forget your favourite when SF come to power….

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119806258#Comment_119806258

The war is being blamed for inflation but the cost of living crisis predates the war and was caused by excessive QE and low for too long rates implemented by life longer civil servants at the ECB.

With COVID, I made the point that there was no data showing that strain to be more deadly and no indication of any additional restrictions at that stage, yet markets were so jittery (as they are in a bubble that is at its peak), they panic-adjusted.

We have lost the well paid tech workers after COVID because we have had effectively zero rentals available the last year, this is true. Funny enough, the big tech slowdown will mask the fact that we had looked the MNC job gift horse in the mouth pre-slowdown by having no housing anyway. It is a fact that the immigration pre-covid is over, war-fleeing asylum seekers and refugees won't be supporting rents and house prices at the levels they are at.

Government debt was created by pushing a few buttons at the ECB. It will disappear the same way, either directly or indirectly via some sort of perpetual bond rollover or some BS new QE bond probably under the guise of something ESG related.

Lastly, SF; they will introduce a rent freeze almost instantly and will panic all the fat cats who do well out of FF and FG that may then look to start selling up and retiring abroad due to the fear that SF will crash the property market. The fear of SF will do more for the housing market than what they will do themselves. In ten years I think we will see a United Ireland with the cheaper housing in the North being a good investment longer term today as that will increase over the next ten years whereas prices in the Republic will be probably similar to what they are today in ten years, but if I had to hang my hat on it, I'd say they will be lower in ten years than they are today.

You left out the other points I said; summer 2021 to go low for long with a mortgage rate and by long I meant 20 years. I also said repeatedly the ECB would change its tune around inflation and embarrassingly raise rates after all during 2022 - this was when the fools were still claiming inflation was transitory and that rates wouldn't rise. This was before the Ukraine Russia skirmish kicked off as well when I was saying it! Short story long; once you read away from the official narrative on these things, it isn't that difficult to see what is really going on. The only uncertainty is the constant wildcard of an ever growing Big State and it's central bankers who are, quite frankly, cowboys and renegades who I do not trust at all as my experience in life shoes me that they work for the already wealthy and at the expense of the John and Mary Taxpayer.

jimmybobbyschweiz

Unsurprising but good to see it highlighted in the context of our concentration risk with respect to corporate taxes. Martin Shanahan perhaps getting out of the IDA before the poo hits the fan.

Well-paid workers not returning to Ireland after the pandemic because of the housing crisis - the housing crisis being too little suitable housing and housing being too expensive of course (as some people think more supply at current rents and prices is going to fix the problem when we also need to see material corrections in rents and house prices in order to resolve the crisis).

"Gradually, then suddenly".

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/10/31/corporate-tax-revenue-concerns-emerge-over-remote-working/

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119814815#Comment_119814815

There's more to it than just the shortage. There is also the dysfunctional and asocial way the housing market operates. Covid forced the issue for a lot of people like myself and the rational conclusion was to start over somewhere else that did not have the same BS.

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816443#Comment_119816443

Likewise and I haven't looked back since moving abroad and starting afresh. It was predominantly about housing and that is no longer an issue for us; affordable, suitable and secure rentals here in Switzerland. Yes, Switzerland and affordable are being used in the same sentence when it comes to housing!

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119803333#Comment_119803333

Well I personally never believed that they would force a recession. But then you have the ECB saying this... worrying

https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/11/01/ecb-policy-lagarde

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119818320#Comment_119818320

Some change alright, bare in mind this most probably is a hawkish bravado that these central bankers are trying to portray to the markets in order to dampen inflation expectations. If diesel starts to spike due to shortages coming down the line, then expect core CPI to continue on its upward march. If this happens central bankers coming out with this garbage becomes meaningless as rate rises at such a slow level will not kill inflation or expectations and to kill inflation by jacking rates to an effective level would destroy the global economy.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119818320#Comment_119818320

they have to force a recession in order to curb inflation - energy prices are still a big factor in inflation and PPI in particular, and unless you can increase supply of energy (we cant cheaply), the alternative is demand destruction.

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119818572#Comment_119818572

Looking at the data, Food inflation is still up there - above 10%, energy is just an outlier. But energy has a lower weight too for their calculation.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/15131964/2-31102022-AP-EN.pdf/9a37ec66-2f69-5b3c-a791-662cec2f439b?t=1666964020949

tom_murphy112

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119818572#Comment_119818572

I would say slowing down the economy is a better option than having a long running inflation. Eventually inflation will kill the economy. By raising rates you are gradually slowing it down in a controlled manner.

A lot of people are worried by energy prices this year, I honestly would be worried about it next year. Prices for gas went negative last week, this is good news for the short term but not for the long term as suppliers will just reduce supply. That is what crude oil producers did after Covid as prices went negative.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816938#Comment_119816938

What I really don't miss is having to assume any given estate agent is a dishonest crook until verified otherwise. Thankfully here in London there is none of the farting around there was in Dublin so was able to go from first viewing to completion in little over two months.

Trouble is the same political paralysis is now about to screw up whatever passes for Ireland's energy policy.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119819858#Comment_119819858

Are you taking the piss? Having lived and bought property in the UK, they are every bit as beneficial to the seller, and uncaring about the buyer as here, in other words, they don’t give a **** about you. In the UK there are more properties and given the financial crisis there, more people want to sell.

Dont kid yourself and try to kid us that UK EAs are any different to here.

jj880

Fackin hell. Didn't fix my tracker. 5 years left on it. Looks like thats going to be a bad call.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119820120#Comment_119820120

Maybe I just got lucky. Of course EAs all over the world are nefarious but at least in the UK there was no phucking about getting a sale price out of the agent.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119820695#Comment_119820695

By sale price you mean what the owner is willing to sell for?

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119820722#Comment_119820722

Yes.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119820829#Comment_119820829

And you paid it?

If you did, the obvious question is, did you overpay by paying what the seller wanted?, or, if you paid less, you got no more than the guide price the same as advertised here.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119820873#Comment_119820873

Beat the price down a bit by being a cash buyer but the cost itself is not the point here.

For me the important bit was not wasting yet another 2+ months of my life going through a blind auction I suspect was not being conducted in an entirely honest way. As for Irish guide prices they are a complete joke.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821041#Comment_119821041

How could cost not be the point here?

For all you know you paid more than any other buyer was willing to pay, and the EA is thrilled to have a pommie buy a house for cash. As a seller, you are the guy/girl I’d love to see, you paid pretty much what I want, and no finance. No wonder they grabbed onto you.

If anything, letting the market decide what a property is worth is more honest, higher bidder wins, with a discount for cash.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821080#Comment_119821080

When I looked at the prices they were 1) within budget, and 2) in line with what I expected for the area. What else is there to ask for? I had spent €29k on temporary accomodation before leaving Dublin and just wanted to get on with my life as soon as possible.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821175#Comment_119821175

Fact is you don’t know if the EA is any better or more honest than one here, you could have paid way more than any other bidder was willing to pay

You just paid what the seller wanted, with a discount for cash, because it was within your budget. House prices are falling in the UK, so you could be a godsend for both the EA and seller.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821232#Comment_119821232

Possibly, but at least it was not another cycle of my life being on hold waiting for the info. End of the day it is that subjective issue of which country for me turned out to be the nicer less nasty experience.

Way inflation is going any downside from falling property prices is the least of my worries.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821311#Comment_119821311

I’m glad to hear you got a property at a price you wanted, but you are viewing the process through rose tinted glasses if you think EAs are any better, or more honest in the Uk. A quick google shows exactly the same accusations of dishonesty in the UK. Like everywhere, there are good and bad, honest and dishonest. EAs, including the one who you dealt with are there to get as much money as they can for the seller, you can be no more assured than you would be here that you were dealing with an honest one or that the profession as a whole is honest until proven otherwise. There is no guarantee that the price he told you was the same as the one he told someone else, you are a cash buyer anxious to buy, an EAs favourite.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821348#Comment_119821348

Luck of the draw I suppose, since my London purchase was a new-build. Don't know offhand what the UK regulations are so there isn't really anything useful I can add to this discussion.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821660#Comment_119821660

Ah FFS, if it’s in a development new builds almost always have a set price here, and in the UK when you go to view them. The EA is just there to open the door for you.