Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

combat14 · 19-10-2022 03:48PM

just great to see the amount that borrowers can access increase just as we head for a recession with rising interest and inflation rates to boot ..

could be the peak of the storm as ESRI already estimate houses here are overpriced 7%+ already

19-10-2022 03:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765861#Comment_119765861

Why would the Government want house prices/rental to remain high? Your posts are often schizophrenic, on the one hand so say the Government wants high prices, something that will no doubt cost many their elected job, at a time you are predicting deep recession. The conditions that existed in 09-12 do not exist today, we do not have an oversupply, we do not have easy credit despite the changes to mortgage approval policies, we do not have wholesale purchase of investment properties by people who can’t afford it. If anything, the most we are likely to have is less people trying to buy the very limited stock of available housing. There is no chance of us suddenly reaching a situation where we have way more housing available than those looking to buy,

Im sorry, but many of your posts are nonsensical.

Eclectic Econometrics · 19-10-2022 04:43PM

I see people being angry to apoplectic on this and the different housing threads in response to the multiple increase.

I think this may provide a HTB type price lift at the lower end with incrementally smaller rises as you move toward the higher end, making no difference to anything valued at or above seven figures.

We're at the stage where anything the Central Bank or Government try is going to be met with anger by some, it is the contentious issue of our time.

There was a point in/in-between lockdown where EA's started selling houses site unseen, remember that madness? LMFAO. Bidding started going crazy. I think we may have been on the cusp of a slight price correction next year and the correction would've been whatever % that site unseen timeframe added to the overall price increase the last two years (5% guesstimate for the sake of argument).

Going from 3.5x to 4x neither solves or creates a problem, for me. Had they gone to 4.5 I would probably be saying the same. If in five years time we have a 2007 style crisis (we won't) we are not going to be looking back and saying "it was that extra .5 that did it".

jimmybobbyschweiz · 19-10-2022 07:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766139#Comment_119766139

Why would the government want house prices and rents to stay high? Seriously, after all this time you are questioning whether it is not government policy to keep the market high? They are in the vast majority of cases homeowners and in many cases landlords as well as their voter base being made up of landowners, in particular with FG they are the party of farmers. This is a landowning club where policy is being created for the benefit of this upper class at the expense of the lower, non-homeowning class.

By way of example, you will notice they use the term affordable with respect to housing but never do they talk of forcing down rents and house prices, just about making them affordable. What does that mean? It means giving people the cash to pay for high rents and house prices. Total propaganda.

As mentioned and as indicated in the news, tech co growth in Ireland largely mirrors what has happened in the US and these companies are at best experiencing muted growth going forward but in many cases cutting jobs which will dramatically affect demand for rentals. In my view, the housing crisis caused issues for tech and other companies here before 2022 as we reached the point of maximum growth in this country due to the capacity not being there in the economy, largely due to the housing crisis, to produce any more. Of course, I fully expect the housing market slowdown to be blamed on the global economic conditions. "Delayed return to the office" was the official line before 2022 as to why Dublin city was so empty and the docklands apartment blocks so dark in the evenings, but in reality there were thousands of people never returning to Ireland and not moving here as they heard of the housing crisis. The government of course have tried to stall supply while this demand shock materialises as we would very quickly see supply pick up and not from new builds.

The Irish housing market is a politically influenced market and not a product of a somewhat free and functioning economy. Ireland is unique in this regard and the big question is how much longer the government can introduce blatant schemes to keep demand hot and supply low or will the money run out to put an end to the whole merry go round?

19-10-2022 07:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767101#Comment_119767101

Will you cop on FFS, government policy is to keep prices/rent high, because they are homeowners and landlords? That’s your logic?

Are they all selling their homes shortly? And surely losing their jobs is more detrimental to their personal finance than keeping their property prices high.

Jesus wept, you do post some absurdities.

almostover · 19-10-2022 07:44PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765833#Comment_119765833

It is an effort to keep building going, I agree. An effort to spare the government's blushes as they gave up building social housing with the last 25 years. But this effort is being funded by giving ordinary people access to more debt. Debt that in the current inflationary climate is becoming more expensive by the day. The prospective first time buyer today faces more expensive energy, fuel and food costs and will be borrowing at higher interest rates. And the CBs solution to this is to allow them borrow more money at a time when their ability to repay that debt is being eroded by inflation. This is lunacy.

ghostofchrimbo · 19-10-2022 07:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767135#Comment_119767135

The government policy was to create and to maintain the housing crisis.

It's either that, or they are less competent than insects.

Over a stunningly consistent run of nearly 10 years, one is believable, one is unbelievable.

19-10-2022 08:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767323#Comment_119767323

They are reacting, badly, to public pressure on rental costs. There is no doubt the RPZ has made matters worse for many renters and the legislation has had the unintended consequence of causing LLs to leave the sector.

But to say they are intentionally keeping prices/rents high for personal gain is beyond stupid and belongs in the CT section of Boards.

ghostofchrimbo · 19-10-2022 08:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767342#Comment_119767342

If a group of adults working together produce the same consistent result year in and year out for 10 years, that is what they intended to do.

19-10-2022 08:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767384#Comment_119767384

You don’t think their constituents, interest groups, the media, charities, pressure from the opposition etc influenced rental legislation? How anyone could construe that legislation as Landlord friendly is beyond comprehension. Please don’t tell me you also believe that policies that helped us climb off the floor by attracting foreign investment were designed to keep TDs properties valuable. C’mon don’t join the chicken lickin club.

ghostofchrimbo · 19-10-2022 08:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767472#Comment_119767472

I'm saying what I'm saying.

When a group of adults work together and produce a result so consistent that you could set your watch to it, over a very long period of time, I'm saying that purpose and intention are paramount. High efficiency.

Whoever said what, did what, when, why or how, the result is the result. It speaks for itself.

A housing crisis has been in existence for a very, very long time, getting worse each year. It has been presided over by the same people for all of that time.

What else can be said?

19-10-2022 08:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767528#Comment_119767528

What else can be said? They responded to immense public pressure to introduce legislation on rents, had they done nothing, they would have been hammered for not providing some protections for renters. If they don’t provide supports for people who can’t afford rents, the homeless numbers would have grown exponentially.

What part of the legislation helps Landlords/TDs who own rental properties?

Do you think any Government can magically build hundreds of thousands of houses? Of course not.

ghostofchrimbo · 19-10-2022 08:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767613#Comment_119767613

The result is the result. Any year worse than the last. It speaks to intent, it speaks to efficiency, it speaks to focus.

For all the squawking and events and legislation and bills and laws that have happened, these boys always end up at the same result.

Conspicuous doesn't begin to describe it.

Going back to my extremely apt antarctic analogy, everyone keeps banging on about how to build enough housing, yet there's barely a whisper as to the why.

Condensed into that "why" is a multitude of conspiracy of which I have no doubt will end in tribunals that will rock this country. But, all in due time.

19-10-2022 08:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767710#Comment_119767710

Go on, tell us what wrong doing the Tribunals will investigate, surely it isn’t why private developers won’t build enough houses.

The floor is yours, tell us what wrong-doing you suspect the TDs are involved in.

mcsean2163 · 19-10-2022 09:17PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767342#Comment_119767342

I think they are acting through the prism of being wealthy homeowners.

We recently went to a dinner with a neighbour and although my partner sees people regularly as clients that are in very difficult positions, she was shook when it was a neighbor with whom we are friends.

TD's, (a bit like you David imho), do not really socialize with those that are struggling with accommodation and finances. It's those other people that are poor.

ghostofchrimbo · 19-10-2022 09:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767764#Comment_119767764

If you're willing to handwave a group of people who have consistently produced the same results year after year as simple incompetents, results right before eyes, facts, evidence, consequence, then there isn't a snowballs chance you're able to entertain the theoretical.

Not many want to entertain the inevitable, it is very painful. But we're heading there nonetheless.

Absolutely insane ideas have brought us to this point. A recent humdinger, just a sliver of the bigger picture, is the no cap on ukrainian refugees, going into winter, with energy prices off the hook, a pre-existing housing crisis forcing people into tents and looming global economic recession to mention a few notes. An 8 year old child would have the sense to not do that.

So why would they do that? Again the choice raises itself, is it lacking the competence of an 8 year old child, or is there method and intent within a group of grown adults?

I can spell out my theories, with plenty of statistical evidence. But I won't.

All I need do is point out the questions, and there are so very many going begging.

Lastly, and firstly, the idea that this housing crisis is an accident and needs to be handled at face value is off with fairies.

19-10-2022 09:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767892#Comment_119767892

I think they are acting through the prism of not being able to magically solve a problem by building the homes necessary, and public pressure to do something which gives protection to renters and help those who can afford rent via supplemental payments.

I socialise with friends, most of whom have been so for a very long time. I don’t distinguish between those who are and aren’t struggling when I go for a pint.

19-10-2022 09:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767926#Comment_119767926

So you think there will be a Tribunal to investigate why we helped people from a war torn country?

Give me one policy decision that you think will result in a Tribunal.

ghostofchrimbo · 19-10-2022 09:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767977#Comment_119767977

No.

And it won't be policy that is investigated.

Don't worry about any of it, you're obviously as content as a pig in muck to take this housing crisis at face value as a gosh golly mistake.

Everything is an accident, no accountability, no responsibility, no vision, no ideas, just a bunch of people falling over their own shoelaces into piles and piles of money every year.

When the hole falls out of these trousers, probably next year, then and only then will people start asking what happened.

L1011 · 19-10-2022 09:39PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767710#Comment_119767710

Your "Antarctic analogy" breaches the warning in the opening post and a repeat warning on-thread this morning.

Drop it.

Don't try to discuss it, don't try to hint at it, don't try anything.

And particularly - do not reply to this moderation instruction.

jj880 · 19-10-2022 09:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767931#Comment_119767931

Why would they want to solve a problem that increases the value of their assets, the rental yield from those assets and makes fortunes for those who lobby them and fund their parties?

The idea that the poor TDs are having a hard time trying to solve the housing crisis is different universe stuff. They are tryin to cod everyone while making the situation worse because it suits them to do so. O'Brien is like Walter Mitty every time he opens his mouth. Hes a fantasist of the highest order but he doesn't care. Hes getting away with it with minimal panto shouting and stumping about from opposition TDs. Watching this country implode is really a spectator sport at present. The only unknown is how long the deckchairs can keep being rearranged with more irresponsible policy thats basically theft at this stage.

19-10-2022 09:42PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768045#Comment_119768045

Everything isn’t an accident. We have risen from a ruptured economy 10 yrs ago to full employment, increased population and a huge number of high paying jobs. Given that construction had a standing start and has been unable to keep pace, it is a surprise to no one that there is a shortage and high prices.

Am I content as a pig in muck? No, but I understand that a Government, any Government and that includes SF, cannot magically provide hundreds of thousands of homes. Nor can they stop those well paid people or people with savings from outbidding those less well paid.

You have stated that Tribunals will be held which will rock society, yet you can provide one example of a policy decision which is based on TDs looking after their own interests or wrong doing.

Its just more nonsense.

ghostofchrimbo · 19-10-2022 09:52PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768103#Comment_119768103

That's great, so not everything is an accident, only the bad things are an accident.

You do realise how easily I could counter each of your vague good points with precise statistics, don't you? I don't need to do that. What I will say is that on a scale of international metrics, we are failing in more than we are succeeding. If you're interested you'll find out yourself, if you aren't, you won't.

You have repeatedly used the phrase "can't magic up hundreds of thousands of houses". Do you have the foggiest idea in mind as to when this loveable Government of goofs are going to achieve the dream? Are they going to match demand to stabilise home prices in 15 years, and then reduce them to affordable levels over another 15 years? What year have you in mind here? 2078? There's reasoning behind your messages, isn't there?

As for Tribunals, don't worry about it. You have a difficult enough time seeing things as they are, never mind why they are. You'll know them when you see them.

19-10-2022 09:53PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768090#Comment_119768090

A lot of those TDs will not be elected when the next Government is formed, specifically because of the housing crisis. You think they are helping developers, in the knowledge that it will cost them their job? That is absurd.

Give me an example of a policy that has helped the TDs. Do you think the rental legislation benefitted LLs? The exodus of LLs from the sector suggests otherwise. Have a plethora of TDs put their own homes on the market recently? Which ones?

Is Darragh O’Brien a LL? The only reference I could find was an investment in 2008 in a housing fund which he exited from at a 50% loss.

19-10-2022 09:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768184#Comment_119768184

You can’t give me one policy decision that you think will result in a Tribunal of enquiry, can you?

I don’t think you comprehend the part played by the private sector in providing housing, and how no matter what part the Government plays, the decision to build will be dependent on costs and profits.

If you are waiting for the State to build hundreds of thousands of homes, 2078 would be optimistic.

ghostofchrimbo · 19-10-2022 10:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768244#Comment_119768244

Don't worry about the Tribunals I envisage. That's the third time I've said as much. My mistake for mentioning it.

The private and public relationship in house building is one giant blur of grey. Means nothing.

As to you saying that hundreds of thousands of homes would be optimistic by 2078...then are you saying that you believe this housing crisis is basked in for another few decades?

I'm clear in what I'm saying, that the housing crisis is one hell of a suspicious series of events.

I don't know what you're getting at whatsoever. What is your point?

L1011 · 19-10-2022 10:11PM

ghostofchrimbo threadbanned.

There is zero tolerance of this from now on.

19-10-2022 10:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768301#Comment_119768301

I don’t know how long there will be a housing crisis because I don’t know if the private sector will build enough to meet demand, or whether demand will stay at present levels, if you do, you have information which no one else seems to have.

My point is, if you believe there is Government corruption in relation to the housing crisis, either lay it out, or you may be better served posting in the CT thread.

dontmindme · 19-10-2022 11:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767342#Comment_119767342

`There is no doubt the RPZ has made matters worse for many renters...`

How so?

SwimClub · 19-10-2022 11:39PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768643#Comment_119768643

Landlords leaving the market, their mortgage interest, costs etc. are going up but they can't put up the rent so they say sod it and sell up.

I saw one post that their mortgage interest could be up 2.5k after the next interest rate rise.

Some got locked in below market value for rent in RPZ as they had kept their rents down over the years, which was the old approach with good tenants, increase on change overs, but selling up might now be more appealing.

Less supply pushes up rents, existing rents are capped but the new build stuff coming online isn't, and you have some big funds allegedly leaving apartments empty for periods to increase rents or lock in the max in the market.

If you're renting at 50% of market value, long term it makes sense to just leave the place empty for 2 years after a tenant leaves and put it back on at market value - not good for supply.

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Comments

There is no doubt the RPZ has made matters worse for many renters...

Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

`There is no doubt the RPZ has made matters worse for many renters...`