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Softening house market?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,431 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    Can't see the logic of this. Enough people exist to buy current housing stock as it is. Now enough people will exist to buy them moetgage approved at 0.5 x income more than before. So that's what, an extra 40k or so?? I think I heard the average joint salary drawing down first time mortgages was 85k or something.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,176 ✭✭✭Ohmeha


    CBI know house prices are now falling and the institutions/funds internationally are in trouble this an irresponsible attempt by the FF/FG/CBI to interfere in market inflation no lessons learned by the usual suspects in this country



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,818 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,818 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    If you don’t understand that his required return isn’t baked into his hourly rate then there is no hope for you.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,304 ✭✭✭Bits_n_Bobs


    central bank reacting to threat of falling house prices by encouraging people to borrow more to keep the shitshow on the road. Lessons not learned.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,365 ✭✭✭Royale with Cheese


    As someone who has been trying to buy this summer this is such a massive kick in the balls. Prices finally look like they might be stabilising and they go and do this, utter fúcking madness. Housing is already out of reach to many under 40 in Ireland at current prices and at the first sign of things potentially slowing down they decide to do this. I'm actually gobsmacked.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 603 ✭✭✭mike_cork


    I'm in the same boat. Prices were starting to come down slightly in Cork and they do this. Increasing the amount that can be borrowed will only service to drives prices up....I'm frankly devastated



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,531 ✭✭✭Gusser09


    Id imagine houses worth 450k in the commuter belt today will be 500k by this day next week. 530k by the end of the year.

    A crazy decision. Nuts. Wow.

    You'd nearly swear there was a general election coming.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭combat14


    wow sounds like severe financial distress in the uk pension markets .. potentially knocking onto property markets too .. who knows what direction this will hop..

    as for our own CB upping lending ratios at a time of rising interest rates .. it beggars absolute belief ....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,079 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    I really feel bad for the likes of yourself, what a shitshow and it smells stink rotten to the highest order. I honestly believe with the crap that's gone on over in England and pension and Investment firms under pressure this is just a government intervention in order to allow some of these investment funds to liquiditate some of their housing stock while pending up demand in order to give them an "out", all the while at the absolute detriment of the Irish first time buyer trying to make their way in life.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,566 ✭✭✭DataDude


    I agree that it’s a bad decision. But I really don’t think CBI have been pressured here by either FF/FG.

    I also suspect this decision has been a long time coming. The CBI absolutely do not make quick decisions. So this train probably started before recent interest rate rises.

    That said banks themselves seem to be much more fiscally responsible these days. I wonder if their own stress tests will bite before the LTI does which would make the change irrelevant. Time will tell.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Why are you gobsmacked? The state has done everything it can to drive up house prices up. I'm surprised that they didn't do this before now, if anything.

    However, I think that this will delay the inevitable only for a time. Eventually, the market will turn, but this action is allowing people to take on more debt to pay for yet higher house prices at a time when interest rates are rising. The politicians and bureaucrats who run this Ponzi scheme have long since passed the realm of incompetent. After the last few years, the adjectives that come to mind for me are "sinister" and "malicious".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,073 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    It's absolutely bonkers. On the one hand you have the ECB engaging in monetary tightening and the local office in Dublin loosening.

    And it doesn't matter now when the policy takes effect, prices rise in the morning.

    As someone trying to buy a family home, this is a massive kick in the balls. 3.5x was the level of debt that we were comfortable with, just about but now essentially we now have to choose between financial stability in the home or a home of our own at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,737 ✭✭✭pinksoir


    That's it exactly. Punishment for the prudent.

    But sure, at least now you can enjoy a life of constant stress, and never be able take a break from work. Make sure not to ever get sick.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭kevthegaff


    I'm not sure will it affect prices that much, confidence is beginning to wane in the market



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,073 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Confidence is waning but the government just pulled about 2k dwellings from supply and the CB has just raised the financial ceiling for every borrower.

    The tide might be on the way out but they are doing their damnedest to stop it



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,079 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    I would love to be able to share your optimism, I pray it doesn't make houses jump by 40 - 50 grand over night but I know for a fact housing developments have slowed up big time now and sites not starting new phases with the cost of materials, this dwindling down of the housing stock even more and more money floating around for less stock I believe will make houses prices rise even with rate hikes comming in the near term.

    If central banks pivot to bail out the fiancial system that may break soon due to the highering of rates, the injection of liquidty into the markets by lowering interest rates and QE you can bet your life house prices will continue in one way. And inflation will also continue in one way. UP



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,073 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    This is the justification for the change. Because incomes are not keeping pace with materials inflation it's becoming very difficult for housebuilders to build homes that people can get the finance to buy to allow them to turn a profit. It looks like they believed that housebuilding would collapse if people didn't have access to more money.

    This neglects other options though. A huge part of a houses value is tied to the land it sits on and that is absolutely ripe for trimming. Add to that the fact that housebuilding here is notoriously inefficient, there were other options.


    They chose the easiest lever to pull, increase the indebtedness of the people that suffered no jobs in the recession and astronomical rents as they tried to save. Sure why not throw on a lifetime of heavy indebtedness too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 89 ✭✭witzky


    I'm so pissed off here. Just gone sale agreed and about to make bid on house tomorrow. No doubt the house I want will go up and force me to cancel our agreement. Nothing in writing so OK but feel bad as first time buyer who is buying ours. Price was fair I thought, didn't want to push too much. **** livid.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 76 ✭✭Cllr_Dermod_Fahy


    It's depressing. I've been biding my time as I would like to buy but it's not a forever home so I don't want to buy and then be unable to sell in future. House prices are so high, way overvalued. I hear the government guy on virgin media just now try and make out new houses are not overvalued because they're A1 energy rated.

    The idea of buying new hasn't even entered my mind. It's not possible. I earn 55k and I'd easily get a mortgage with 4 times salary and buy apartment around 250k at current levels. But it's crazy money. The mortgage would be 1k a month. That's 33% of net salary. I think it's crazy. Then you have bills and charges on top. And these properties are not even nice. They're tiny, around 50 square metres with tiny kitchens you'd struggle to put an air fryer on. If I did buy one of these, I wouldn't feel a shred of any positive emotion or celebration. They're matchboxes with electric heaters and outdated bathrooms.

    People seem to be desperate to buy a house and pay 50% of their net income on a mortgage. I find that idea sickening. To think I'd be working my balls off at work and that half of my week is just to pay for the roof over my head.

    It's so frustrating that I try to be sensible, not overpaying for something so clearly overvalued yet government and central bank are doing all they can to increase prices every time.

    It's hard to put into words just how disgusting this is. In a time where the ECB are increasing interest rates to bring down inflation, our own central bank are increasing the money people get to run after housing which will drive up house prices, drive up inflation. More people will job hop or demand raises at work, which in turn creates a vicious cycle of inflation.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Nothing is going to move that quickly. Anyone wanting to take advantage of this would need to reapply for mortgage approval. Highly doubt this would affect current sales



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,200 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    We had the most conservative borrowing rules for mortgage lending in Ireland. Guess what we still have. The CB has been reviewing this for the last 10-12 months. The previous standard was 3.5 times income. However fir a lot of buyers they were depending on the exception's at the start of the year that were allowed at 4.5 times.

    I do not think it will change prices to much. It will be an advantage to single buyers who wish to buy lower priced property.

    For a person on the average industrial wage of 50k it will give them another 25k. With the HTB and a deposit it will allow the to purchase at the 250k bracket. Repayments @3% would being the 1250/month.

    It will also prevent some of the panic of trying to complete contracts early in the year to achieve an over 3.5 times loan. However loan repayment would be slightly less than 40% of take home pay which is a slight worry.

    It will make a big difference to those couples paying significant rent in the 80-100k total income who may be squeezed out of buying

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    The rationale will be interesting to listen to when this is announced. The Central Bank has a responsibility to the wellbeing of the economy as a whole and not sweetheart sectors.

    Depressingly, the construction and ancillary property related services (insurance, real estate management, auctioneers, quantity surveyors you could go on and on) sector is of such an oversized part of the economy, that they feel like they have to feed the beast so everyone can get their cut. As a few posters have intimated, this isn't particularly good news for first time buyers who may have spent the last few years cobbling together a deposit.

    I hope they provide a firm, credible rationale to back the decision. As my secondary maths teacher hammered into us: "I'm not interested in the answer, show me your workings."



  • Administrators Posts: 55,020 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I hate to break it to you @Cllr_Dermod_Fahy , but if you do the sums for anyone who has bought since the lending rules came in, you will struggle to find many, if any people, paying more than about 30% of their income on the mortgage. Many will pay less. This is what the lending rules enforce, paying 50% of your income on the mortgage is not going to happen.

    We hear a lot on here about how property is "overvalued", but unfortunately all too often people think houses are overvalued purely because they're more expensive than they want them to be. Prices are high right now, unquestionably so, but "overvalued" really doesn't mean anything.

    If you think 1k a month on the mortgage is shocking for an apartment, I suggest you avoid looking at rent prices for similar properties, as you might just fall off your chair.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Rather the point, this will negatively effect people on fixed incomes that were priming themselves to buy their first homes on the lower end of the market. Single people particularly, who have an extremely hard time of it as is.

    Political reaction to this will be worth watching. FF were the frontrunners in pushing for a softening of the rules. They best have their story straight if house prices accelerate off the back of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    If house prices go up to match the lending rules loosening, and there's every chance that it will, the net effect will be first time buyers taking on more debt, and those on the margins (again I'm thinking of single people) failing stress tests.

    So this is really of fanny all use to people buying their first home at best, and will accelerate house price inflation putting them back another few years at worst.



  • Administrators Posts: 55,020 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Yes it will affect the lower end more as I suspect they will be limited by the banks own rules, and the 4x rate will realistically only be available to higher earners.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Will it be the 2020's version of the 100% mortgage from the mid-late 2000's?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 720 ✭✭✭FrStone


    We will do anything to keep house prices artificially high.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900


    Investors and funds dont care about a 4x multiple. They are already selling. Shameful policy to squeeze the average joe to the max and leave them holding massive debt with a house worth a fraction of what they spent.

    Hilarious decision though, you couldnt make up the stupidity of the government decisions...unless you realize they aint making decisions for the common man.



This discussion has been closed.
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