Russia - threadbanned users in OP

It's a tough one. I'd imagine we're all sorry for any kids killed or hurt in this accident. But adult Russian civilians? I dunno. When there are so many innocent Ukrainians being killed by their soldiers? I'm not sure my empathy levels are high enough for much sorrow.

Seeing how many Russians left the country when they were at risk of being mobilised compared to how few left when the war started, I think it's safe to say that most Russians don't really care what happens to the Ukrainians as long as they themselves are ok. So it's hard to feel much pity for them when they're on the receiving end. I wouldn't wish it on them but nor am I going to lose any sleep over it.

The next step (contractors on the ground) ?

I also like that the US are making noise about the anti-sanction aspect of Iran's drone supply.

Obviously it has been decided that Putin WILL lose all of Ukraine.

Ahh... I missed it. He's an old unrepentant red and should be ignored.

Yeah, the "breakup" of Russia would only be a temporary reprieve. A few decades down the line, we'd be dealing with attempts at the re-unification of Russia. There's always going to be some bit called Russia that harks back to its imperial past.

I think the worst that would happen is that it would lose some bits at the edges. Imperial Russia, and the Soviet Union after it, did a good job of planting ethnic Russians in any area they wanted to control. They're either a majority or a plurality in most areas.

If Putin went with a Russia collapse, and the next regime weren't as well disposed to Kardyov, I could see Chechnya and possibly the other North Caucasian republics going it alone - and then there being a war between them.

Tuva was part of the Chinese empire until 1919, and was an "independent" state until 1945, variously under the sphere of influence of Russia, the Soviet Union and China. Taiwan even lays clam on it as part of the Republic of China (although the PRC doesn't). So that could be interesting in the case of Russia collapsing in to a political vacuum. But it's only a tiny bit of the country.

There's some other bits that aren't Republics that could get annexed by neighbours if the situation deteriorated enough. But the core of Russia won't be going anywhere.

"The west is bad, m'kay..."

Not as fast as it's being destroyed. Power stations will take years to rebuild. I don't know how connected Ukraine is to it's neighbours.

These drone attacks represent the next phase of the war. If Ukraine infrastructure is seriously damaged the war will enter a new level, maybe with millions of refugees going to Europe. 44 million people could be without work, food, heating. Time for American to bomb Iran's drone factories. Things are going to get much more serious.

Aaaa but how the tides do turn... 12 months ago it would have been unthinkable for anyone to stand up to Putin given his tendency to mock and humiliate people at will.

Putin listened uncomfortably. A video of the embittered speech surfaced at the weekend and was not part of the official coverage of the Oct. 14 summit, during which he urged his southern neighbours to build new logistics chains after Western sanctions over Ukraine disrupted much of Russia's trade.

What you're seeing there are the plebs, the dregs sent out to fight. You're not seeing the elite that control them and society. You have this to greater or lesser extent in every society. You have to take it, that even with the odd deluded madman, the elite are generally more calculating and measured. Even if a dictatorial leader goes rogue, there are those in the echelons just below who can restrict what is actually carried out. Human society has muddled along in times of war many times previously, generally it's the plebs, elderly and weak/ ill who suffer mostly.