Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Thanks @odyssey06

Although some U.S. stocks are running low, alternatives―older, experimental, or nonstandard systems―are available, and these will constitute an increasingly large proportion of transfers. The United States might also acquire some stocks from third countries. The reliance on alternatives does not indicate a lack of commitment or a reduction in military capability. These systems can still be effective on the battlefield. However, they are an acknowledgment that the U.S. military was not structured to fight or support an extended conflict. That should, of itself, spark some debate in the national security establishment about budget priorities. In the meantime, the flow of weapons and munitions will continue, as will the war.

True. Ukrainians are very dependent on foreign aid, foreign assistance, solidarity and world attention. Their very lives and freedom and identify depend on it, everything hinges on that support. Naturally they try to control the narrative as much as possible (if they don't, the Russians will), and unfortunately there are some side effects to that.

Yathink he might need some cash from Vladdy to buy Twitter again? This is getting even more embarrassing for Elon.

So there are basically three* separate Russian organisations fighting in Ukraine:

1. The Russian Armed forces - with Sergei Shoigu at the top as Minister of Defence
2. The Chechen armed forces - with Ramzan Kadyrov as their head (nominally part of #1 but de-facto independent)
3. PMC Wagner - run by Yevgeny Prigozhin

All of these are ultimately loyal to Putin but there seems to not be much loyalty to each other. As things have been getting worse on the battlefield the internal jostling between these guys seems to be intensifying with Shoigu and the Army coming in for a lot of criticism in particular.

A lot of people have taken notice of the public relations campaign that Prigozhin has been running in recent weeks. Lots of videos of him looking dynamic, meeting his men on the front-lines, attending a funeral, holding 3am meetings. At the same time Wagner have been involved in a sort of Groundhog Day offensive against the city of Bakhmut. At this stage with the fronts collapsing elsewhere this city has less and less strategic value and yet that's what Wagner seems to continue to focus on. At the same time they are pulling fresh recruits from prisons within Russia and using them for the most dangerous tasks. Putting all of this together there is a theory that Prigozhin is saving the bulk of his troops for whatever comes next. He's no fool. He can see the writing is on the wall when it comes to Ukraine. He's already planning for the internal fight that comes afterwards.

That arrest yesterday of one of Prigozhin's social media guys is quite telling. It shows that Shoigu (or possibly even Putin) is no fool and are wise to what he's been up to. At the same time they need Wagner to continue to fight in Ukraine though so they cannot afford to antagonise him too much, for now.

I'm not sure how Kadyrov factors into the above. He's certainly been putting the boot into the army himself and Putin appears to be keen to keep him sweet by giving him the rank of Colonel General. In any internal conflict it would be difficult to see the Chechans have too much power outside of the Caucuses. I'd be keeping an open ear to see if he says anything about Wagner or Prigozhn.

Interesting times....

*There's also the LNR and DPR forces but they have no real power or respect - especially within Russia

Russian state TV these days is hilarious. Poor Vladimir Solovyov is sounding like he needs a good cry. When your own side are pathetic losers, it is hard to then believe in your own right wing facisist propaganda. The whole notion of having a 'superior race' or a 'superior state'.. that's just crumbling right now before their eyes. The great Mother Russia, which has produced some of history's greatest minds, and once great superpower has been reduced to a joke. Rotten to the core. Impotent, incapable and weak.

I saw some highlights of a big meeting in Russia yesterday I think. Putin was pontificating his usual drivel and the one person that stood out was Kadyrov. His body language showed a complete lack of belief and respect for what Putin was saying. I wouldn't be surprised if he fancies his chances in overthrowing the government since he's been so outspoken on using nukes (whether he genuinely wants to or is just saying this to make Putin look weak is anyones guess). I'd imagine if there has been any mutterings of taking over he'll want to carve out a nice chunk of territory in the greater Caucus/Crimea region. Prigozhin, Kdayrov and probably a few behind the scenes pushing for getting rid of Putin seems fairly logical. The big IF here is whether a civil movement can take hold and beat them to the punch.

There is not a chance that Kadyrov - a Muslim, a Chechen - will take over Russia. None. Zero.

He could back the next leader - who will be an Orthodox Russian - and be rewarded for it, but it can't be him.

Just as an aside....

The war colors so many things. I'm listening right now to a very good Russian ambient-Industrial album made by a collective based in Perm. The liner notes of the CD states "This album is dedicated to the victims of totalitarian regimes". But I wonder where are these 5 or 6 guys now ? Did they head for Kazakhstan, or were they swept up in the mobilization order ?

And another

Yes and how is this going to play out in Europe and elsewhere. Not a great time to be pissing off your customers.

Many of these OPEC states have assets and interests in Europe and elsewhere. Could be a long hard look taken at them to see how they can be squeezed back and encouraged to be helpful.

The polish army didn't preform badly that was all propaganda that came out of the Kremlin,and regurgitated on social media accounts and on here

Also the whole Musk thing unnerves me because it suggests the American right is tempted to stop supporting Ukraine.

Further evidence that bin Salman is dangerously stupid.