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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

1199119921994199619973690

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  • Moderators, Music Moderators Posts: 10,867 Mod ✭✭✭✭humberklog


    Can someone clear something up for me:

    The damaged pipeline was holding gas, it wasn't flowing as it's tapped off by Russia.

    But my understanding of Gas production is that it's hugely expensive and dangerous to store so when you've tapped it you've gotta have a home for it.

    My question is: has Russia blown the pipeline in order to release the gas from the gas fields?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    I thought of that too but probably easier to vent it near the wells. I think they may have run into issues shutting down well heads maybe some kind of over pressure and only option to blow the pipe ? not a well expert.

    but more lightly just blew the pipe



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,794 ✭✭✭macraignil


    What leverage? The Europeans that had been buying Russian gas have made it clear they wanted to move to alternatives and Russia has made this happen faster with its repeated technical faults and surprise routine maintenance making the supply through these pipelines completely unreliable.

    I've no evidence to back it up but the most likely reason for the pipes being blown up is as an act of terrorism and the country blatently engaging in terrorism in Europe since the start of the year is Russia. A conspiracy by the USA makes no sense when the war in Ukraine is going as well as could be expected in terms of destroying russia's military and making it quite clear to the world how evil and inhumane they are.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,138 ✭✭✭Gregor Samsa


    If they needed to vent the gas for safety reasons, they'd open valves specifically designed for such purposes and tell people about it, not blow up the pipes under the sea in someone else's Exclusive Economic Zone and then blame others.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,515 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    And you believe the USA blew the pipelines that were not in use to stop them being used? Rather than attacking a NATO members critical infrastructure in another members waters, the US could have just sanctioned Gazprombank.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,794 ✭✭✭macraignil


    I'm not familiar with the Tony Blair quote but from the media I have seen it does look like Russia is getting fairly desperate. The wars they have been involved in since Putin has been in charge were against countrys without an organised and properly equipped army up until this year and now they are the ones going to fight with the less organised and more poorly equipped troops and with the atrocities that they have inflicted on the Ukraininan people I don't expect the Ukranians soldiers to be very forgiving.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,888 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    If gas was entering the pipe line, but was shut off at other end, then like a balloon it was going to pop eventually. Not saying that's what happened, but it's what would happen in that case.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,068 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Gas sales to Europe in terms of the Russian economy are quite small, in terms of the European economy,it is peanuts.


    Without it though, it's a big cost to Europe.


    There is no circumstances in which that pipeline was ever going to be used again by Russia or European countries.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,656 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Ok, lets say this now and put it to bed.

    The United States. Nor any other NATO or EU Member. Did not. Puncture, blow up, or otherwise sabotage. That pipeline.

    Ok?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 500 ✭✭✭Psychedelic Hedgehog


    There would have been sensors at multiple points along the pipeline. If what you say is true then these would have been screaming long before the ruptures.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,493 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Pressure in the pipe is constantly monitored, if russia decided to feed into it, then relief valves would be opened to release pressure.

    All 4 pipes appeared to have "popped", one of them in two locations (when the pressure would have been dropping).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    I don't think so that would have been designed in there is only so much psi it could generate in the pipe more lightly bang on the other end. And that would not explain seismographs picking it up. The pipe would rupture at one point not multiple you would not really get any seismic issues would be a small bang and then gas replacing water to vent out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,658 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Watching Simon Coveney on the news tonight and he was having to button his lip and be very diplomatic but you could see that he thought Russia was behind the incident, even though he couldn't even imply who the culprit was.



  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Thats true,but its within range of Ukraines artillery too now



  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Sweden have mastered this over many years and have mobile fuel and maintenance vehicles for that purpose alone.

    The first thing thats targeted in an attack will be crucial infrastructure like Airports

    I believe Taiwan is using same



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,747 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    I really cant see the USA being involved, way to many risks for them if they got found out, all just so they can make a few dollars on LNG? Nah I dont think so.

    However I was also sceptical that Russia would have blown the pipe when the story first broke. Just didnt make any sense for them to self harm one of their bargaining chip.

    But one thing thats got me thinking is if maybe Putin was getting any pressure from anyone about the loss of revenue from it. Maybe it is his way of saying nope ill nip this in the bud now and just blow them, slightly different tactic than just having people suicide out of windows.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    I think they have all been told not to give the Russians any propaganda wins. See the west blames us and alike. Would make sense.

    Not a fan of Coveney but if he's zipping the lip doing a good job imop.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,658 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    He very nearly implied Russia was responsible at one point but managed to correct himself in time and make it sound like he wasn't blaming anyone in particular. But you could just tell who his prime suspect is (and I'm sure this is based on numerous conversations with western allies).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    It appears that the Donbas front line is collapsing, what will Putin do to halt the Ukrainian advance deep into the territory?

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    Oh they know we know they will just bare face lie. They have a word for it cant remember it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,664 ✭✭✭✭josip


    It's only really moving in the north and any further advances in the next 3 months will be limited due to the mud. I can't see Ukraine getting any further than the Krasna this year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,542 ✭✭✭circadian


    I'm wondering how much of the thermobaric stuff they have. I'd imagine that would be, in their eyes, a reasonable means of defence since these areas are now considered Russia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    But all the major players have been awfully quiet, nobody is making threats to avenge this or at least make someone pay ,

    Nato made a relatively short statement nothing major, Russians hinting through Twitter it was the Americans, thanks to the Biden speech not so long ago, most think it might be putin, but even the Russians have been quite,no fierce denials or pleading innocent or threats to take action for an attack on their pipeline no matter which whatever way you look at was a major earner for the Russians ,

    Who ever did it was cute enough to make sure it happened in international waters and preventing a possible Article 5 Nato retaliation.

    I think it interesting how little real outrage there is about the whole thing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,747 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    Yep its a bit of a head scratcher.

    Will we ever find out?

    Maybe it will be like one of those mysteries of when someone is shot or killed on a soap or Mr Burns on the simpsons, there are so many suspects but its always the one that is the least obvious who did it...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,656 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Russia made a big mistake early on in their War regarding thermobaric weapons systems.

    They sent them in as part of the force to take out Kyiv and also to tough nut areas like Mariupol, whereupon the Ukrainians destroyed them all using Javelins, AT4s and Bayraktar armed drones.

    I seriously doubt that Russia has much in the way of mid-size offensive armour, ie tanks and artillery rocket systems, left at all. Ditto trucks, personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles.

    Now thats bad news in one way, because it may well introduce into theatre, systems we haven't seen before, systems meant for going toe-to-toe with NATO land forces had the cold war turned hot, such as the Iskandr, Granat, Topol and Bastion short to medium range cruise and ballistic missiles.

    Russia's ability to cause a huge amount of damage in areas where it has no physical presence, remains a massive hazard.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,133 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    According to the Russians on Telegram, Lyman is an attempt to delay Ukraine for as long as possible until mobilized Russian troops start arriving to address their critical manpower shortage in this sector.

    Regardless of that, Lyman is toast for Russia, mobilized troops won't arrive early enough to change things there. I am kind of hoping Putin issues a direct order to the Lyman defenders to issue a "Hitler at Stalingrad" type ultimatum that forbids Russians to retreat, therefore allowing Ukraine to encircle them. Unless Putin has completely lost the plot, I think Russia will withdraw from Lyman, maybe even as early as in the next 48 hours.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,234 ✭✭✭✭briany


    That's interesting, but if Russia has the ability to use these weapons systems, wouldn't it make sense to try and employ them before issuing the decree to mobilise hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers, bringing the reality of the war home to Russia and risking public backlash against not only the war itself but also his government? What would make more difference for Putin? Long range ordinance or under-trained and under-supplied conscripts?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Very logical, cutting of the gas supply to Europe by sabotaging two pipelines that don't supply gas to Europe anymore.

    Genius analysis bro



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,133 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    I am not sure about that. Other than a few notable Russian propaganda video's, we've not seen much use of thermobaric weapons on the battle field since the start of the war.

    Firstly, Russia didn't have very many thermobaric weapons systems to start with. The rumour was that they possessed dozens, we have no idea to the actual number, but I seriously doubt it's more than 100. TOS-1 launchers and rockets are actually very expensive.

    Secondly, Oryx only reports that 5 TOS-1's have been captured/destroyed, and as far as I can tell, all these happened much earlier on in the conflict. I haven't seen one captured or destroyed in months now. These things have never been common on the battlefield, which you should expect for a weapon that has a maximum range of 10km.

    They are still being used (notably in Pisky), but it seems clear the Russians are being a lot more careful about them these days. I think they didn't have that many to start with, and whatever is left and still has ammo are being kept in safe areas of the battlefield like the DPR/LPR.



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  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ukraine have surrounded and cut off in Lyman,escape routes and supply routes within artillery range




This discussion has been closed.
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