Softening house market?

All of this talk about the tech sector is not pertinent to this topic. It is specul;ation about what might happen in a sector which may have implications in the future for the property market. As to what is going on in the market I note that Bidxq1 have 11 pages of properties for next weeks auctions. many of the properties are headed "new pricing" and many have been up for auction before. Given that traditionally most B1dx1 properties exceeded their guide price at auction it seems they are meeting resistance on the market and the "wall of money" chasing property is not a high as before. The majority of properties are repos but i note that some are not. Vendors are just trying to get properties away rather than engage in the traditional method of selling.

There is going to be a bloodbath for SMEs this year in this country, look at consumer confidence, Interest rates, Energy costs, Food costs (general inflation), VAT going back up from 9%, the payments holiday for businesses finishing, Covid supports finished and an increase in the minimum wage that will have other knock on effects on costs of labour. This is before we even mention the condition of the UK (just gone into recession), The US (in a technical recession) and Germany and the issues it is facing. Those 3 countries alone impact out countries finances and fortunes just as much as those of us (both businesses and employees) working and doing business here. There is enough there to suggest there is going to be plenty of lay offs within the next 6/12 months.

Well supply is ticking up on myhome and daft still a long way off what is needed having said that lots of younger people will not be hanging around in this country working for high rents and no chance of buying and with the likes of Canada, US and Oz all seeing house prices tumbling they may feel their fortunes would be better served leaving. So if that happens in great numbers and supply keeps going up and emigration starts reversing we may well see some impact on house prices.

Wondering what would it take for new builds to drop in price? I presume this would be a last resort for developers and they would want to maintain a precedence of rising prices each time there is a new phase for sale. And any change to the steady climb in prices would be like an admission of a change in the market.

Would a reduction in prices of new builds be the last thing to drop? And therefore likely to be a long time yet. As things like the second hand market not selling, drop in prices, a period of recession, layoffs, would have to happen first..

Or in a situation of a new phase not selling would the developer have a need to drop prices quickly in order to meet a payment of the financing of the build.

I get a sense that developers certainly have more urgency in trying to sell before rising interest rates affect people's budgets any more.

It seems there is a bit of a change to selling before completion. Whereas from my experience developers were holding off until it was fully completed, which complemented the rising prices nicely.

After a delays in a release I was told it would be much better for me to have a show room to view rather than buy off plans. Which is true in some ways. But then again most new builds are an exact copy of each other so it's not difficult to get an idea of what the latest development will be like. Especially when it's the same developer!

I feel like new builds prices will remain stubbornly high even if the second hand market drops

I know of 2 people in 2019 who blindly went sale agreed off plans - I thought it was madness. Last time I heard of people doing that was 06.

That people are no longer buying pre-showhouse is not exactly indicative of a slowdown, just that the weird panic between 19 and 21 has abated somewhat. The market is still strong (for now)

Which estate is this?

The 7 out of 10 is rubbish. That would mean students leaving before college courses are complete. There is a huge pent up demand for travel my son came back after being away for o er four years. Where he went back working there is 2-3 staff a bit younger than him thing of going travelling for a year or so. A friend he went to school is going with his girlfriend they are leaving the 27th to go to Australia for 12-18 months. They got a leave of absence.

You can get any result you like from a survey by loading the way you ask the questions.

If you asked any single person in Ireland.

''would you consider leaving because of the cost of living''

Nearly everyone would say yes. Consideri g and doing it are two different things.

I wouldn't be as dismissive of some of the anecdotal "evidence" of layoffs in the tech industry as some in here. It is certainly the case that there will be some sort of economic contraction here and abroad. The tech industry is important as it is more vulnerable to economic issues in the US. It also provides a lot of the high salary jobs in Ireland. The share options received by tech industry employees probably make up a far bit of deposits.

There are certainly headwinds for the property sector in Ireland, increased costs, rising interest rates, inflation causing reduced spending in the economy etc. It is the most uncertain time for the property market in the last 10 years and I wouldn't like to be making a decision about purchasing now.

Things are going to get ugly soon. Im expecting numbers to rise, but wont matter, no one will be buying.

A neighbour of a friend was speaking with an estate agent about putting her apartment up for sale. She was told if she had put it on the market 4 months ago it would sell fairly quickly for 270-280k. Now, she was told it will take 4+ months and probably sell for between 250-260k

There will likely have been the aspect of some people rushing to buy "while we can". i.e. those currently with access to credit who think that a worsening economy will mean that they won't get it in the future.

I think the mortgage squeeze is a big factor and is feeding through- ICS for example only giving 2.5 times salary?

Not to mention the steady rise in rates from where they were. All effects repayment capacity and mortgage qualification levels- people have less money to play with = downward pressure on prices

Yet more viewings where I'm the only person.

One of which was in decent part of south side. Gaff went sale agreed months but fell through. Back on the market 75k below that sale agreed price. Estate agent was saying they'd accept 5k less than that if I was interested. First time I've experienced the hard sell since I started looking. Only one other person had viewed it apparently.

No interest in the place, there's better value in other parts of Dublin. But houses around there were flying off the eh... shelves not so long ago

Not sure if it's the time of year, the amount of stuff currently on the market (is it 20k properties now on daft or my home?) or what. Feels like a sentiment shift. I've been actively looking for over 6 months and the last while fewer and fewer people are at the viewings I've been at.