Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Russia's eastern frontiers are also immense and wild. Assuming these folk can get out of the western cities, and also assuming that the various ex-Soviet states don't have a repatriation deal going on for these guys, they can escape that way. I expect any attempt to escape West towards Finland, Norway or the Baltics would probably be much more difficult.

Intersting video on the options of getting out legitimately for the average Russian. Not good. The Russian passport is effectively useless.

https://youtu.be/mboIwYKIBNI

Didn't work too well in Syria anyway.....surprising lack of volunteers after the initial fanfare about big salary's etc. Free tickets and all.

I'm glad you think Putin is such a rational actor in all this, hopefully your right

What big guns are these?

What do you advocate? Ukraine to surrender?

The Ukrainans have it spot on

Couldn't organise a ride in a free brothel

I don't know what would happen but if any kind of nuclear retaliation happened it would be the end of humanity. What do you think would happen?

May I suggest some historical research on the politics of MAD, SOP'S of the authorisation of the use of Nuclear Weapons in Russia ( hint: its not a big red button that Putin can depress at any moment. In fact, the American procedures have even less layers of confirmation procedures).

If Russia used such a weapon, NATO's response would be conventional and much more effective than a nuke fired in reply from the West.

Russia has 20 active nuclear-capable subs in operation at the moment and most of them are in the Black Sea at the moment, or as I predicted last week, moved to Novorossiya because Sevastopol has become untenable.

I can absolutely assure you that NATO knows exactly where those subs, command and control systems etc are situated. As I keep saying, watch Kaliningrad. That's the place to be hit first, conventionally. US Navy Arleigh Burke destroyers, with their excellent Agis systems are already in place near Kaliningrad and would intercept any missiles fired from the Missile sites in Kaliningrad.

NATO would begin an immediate conventional strike, for which they have had months to plan, and thus whole affair would be done in a week.

Plus. Keep an eye on the weather and wind directions. When they change direction, that's when Russia may strike.

Finally, nuclear weapons are not the world-ending destructive force normally portrayed in movies. Its the heat that kills you. The blast is huge, of course but to use one in Ukraine would have zero strategic value, especially since the only concentration of troops in any one point in Ukraine, are Russians. The Ukrainians are spread out and constantly moving.

I figure you may be quite young. There are many really good discussions on the Nuclear threat in Ukraine. Watch some of them and eat some fruit.

If you lived through the late 70's and 80's like most of use, you'd have a mental breakdown. Trust us, we've heard all this before, in even worse situations!

:)

I have. Read my post...

;)

300k people is just the headline number for propaganda purposes. The actual number of people who end up in Ukraine is going to be lower. The number of people who actually get deployed to the front line will be lower again. Let's say 200k people actually end up in Ukraine, of those half of those will be logistic/support folks, so you're really looking at arming "only" the other half. Of that 100k, it could be the case that 50k are assigned to police/guard duty, or placed on reserve lines of defence, just assign them a Kalashnikov and a grenade.

'It's the heat that kills you' are you quoting from that nonsense Quora post someone linked to a while back downplaying nuclear weapons?

With a nuclear detonation, you've a combination of the massive blast, the heat and then gamma radiation, along with a massive burst of EMP.

If that doesn't kill you either by being vapourised, crushed in buildings or via an incredibly high dose of radiation, it'll get you in the subsequent days by poisoning you and your land with radioactive fallout.

It's not just 'the heat that kills you'.

I agree with the rest of your post re MAD and the highly unlikely situation where one would be used, but please, don't downplay the effects of an actual nuclear attack. It's grossly misinformed.

Go back a few pages here in this forum, and several knowledgeable posters gave their views on what happens when nuclear bombs are exploded, and point out that to date, and until such tests were banned by treaty's, several hundred, if not thousands have taken place already. Yet the world still turns, and Life as we know it goes on.

Just because they have been used in tests and the world didn't end means nothing! 'knowledge posters' give me a break, what are they, Irelands leading nuclear war specialists?

https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/blog/2022/03/what-the-science-says-could-humans-survive-a-nuclear-war-between-nato-and-russia/