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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    If you look at the two Finnish wars in WW II, the Finns were able to give a good account of themselves initially and push the Soviets (which included Ukrainians at the time) back into Russian territory. Ultimately though, the Russians won and seized Karelia. Finland only survived because the Russians preferred to have a buffer with Sweden (a historic enemy defeated by the Russians at modern day Poltava in today's Ukraine.)

    In the first Chechen war, the Russians lost 14,000 men and called a halt to the war, Putin came in and the Russians took Chechyna, this time with 40,000 Russian soldier casualties over the years it lasted, there was the initial combat phase of 8 months, followed by the insurgency phase that lasted several years.

    There are several other examples where the Russians have taken heavy losses, regrouped and come back to win. With Ukraine they made a reckless hubristic gamble and they are not going to achieve all the objectives they intended. Russia is still a major economy, has the resources for a comeback and historically that's what they do and on that basis Ukraine may not achieve total victory, they may have to cede some land to get the Russians off their back, move on and rebuild their economy and society.

    Historically Russia did cede territory in 1917 due to the internal Bolshevik revolution driven in part by the losses at the front against the Germans and Austrians and a civil war that went on for 5 years after that, including the Poland.Soviet (Ukrainian) war between 1918 and 1921. They gained it all back and then some 20 years later under Stalin.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Go hard on Ukraine with what? His mickey? The only card Putin hasn't played yet is the one that will turn Russia into the worlds biggest car park



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,222 ✭✭✭✭briany


    I'm not sure exactly which outlet it would be, but I bet it has a piece in it about George Soros meeting with the World Economic Forum to eliminate the words 'man' and 'woman' from the dictionary.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,167 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Ah yeah.


    Here we go again.

    Putin is a nice guy….


    Do you lads ever get tired???


    Zzzzzzzzzzzz


    Good always defeats evil in the end.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    I see you conveniently make no mention of Afghanistan who were backed by the US.

    All those other wars Chechnya, Georgia, Finland etc they were not up against anything like what they are in Ukraine with the backing of almost the entire western world. This is multiple times worse than Afghanistan for them. And the more they brutally fight on the more Ukraine will be backed up and the longer the sanctions will persist. They are at nothing.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Curious_Case


    Russia may come to realise that putting forward another of Putin's ilk is not a fantastic idea.

    In any case, Sick Puppy Mark II may have noted what happened to Sick Puppy Mark I and decide to stay well clear.

    A successor may indeed be more hardline, but is hardly likely to be as deluded as Putin.

    Ukraine will be heavily bolstered once this phase is over.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    I would not characterise Russia as a "major economy" any longer. It has resources coming out it's backside but has fallen prey to a resource curse.

    A "major economy" is diversified, has significant productive and innovative capacity; can retain and attract high-end workers to sustain the former; has networks of peer economies it cooperates with on technological transfer and research; ruthlessly protects intellectual property; has a currency that doesn't display extreme volatility; has rule of law, political stability and the favourable investment climate that flows from that.

    Russia fails on all those fronts.

    And then there's the raw if rather crude GDP measure.

    South Korea for instance has one third of the population of Russia, is a fraction of the land mass, has none of the resource advantages, yet has an economy the same size as Russia (probably bigger by a fair bit now due to the war). It also p*sses on Russia on the innovation front.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,051 ✭✭✭jmreire


    More like call up 2 million angry Russian mothers.....what happens Russian soldiers who go on special military operations is now well known, and the pushback will intensify.....more recruitment centres bombed / burned, stiffer opposition by Soldiers who have been in Ukraine , and have absolutely no intention of going back again..ever. Rumor has it that the much vaunted 3 battalion deployment was stopped, simply because they refused to go.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    There are several other examples where the Russians have taken heavy losses, regrouped and come back to win. ..


    Lol like where



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    The more it drags on the higher the likelihood of nuclear war.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    On paper Russia has the resources to overwhelm Ukraine, and based on historic precedent, this should not be discounted. Right now you are seemingly right, they have nothing in the tank to win, morale has collapsed. It makes sense for them to withdraw, come up with a better plan, address the corruption that contributed to their defeat i.e the funds for their modernisation more or less got siphoned off. Whether, that is 2 years or 20 years they will eventually come back.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    I think everyone knows he has serious weapons of mass destruction. Don't know where the guy got his sources but Putin was recently bizarrely praised for his restraint in the US marine corps gazette.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/wmkvc8/ua_pov_marine_corps_gazette_publishes_an_oddly/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

    I guess when the US attack, it looks more like Chechnya etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    There is no discussion of nuclear war in Ukraine or anywhere else,

    Bar some nut jobs on russian tv and some poor unfortunates on here making claims of tactical nukes , either Play too many games or watch too many movies.

    It's not going to happen



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,734 ✭✭✭seenitall


    Edit: posted a meme that was already posted, thread is moving a bit quick for me. Since i can’t delete, here are a few more, some of which mightn’t have been posted already……

    image.jpeg image.png image.jpeg


    Post edited by seenitall on


  • Posts: 2,050 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I respect your posts because you deal only in data and facts. Not like the majority who sit back and pontificate opinion.

    Here is a link, there are many others. The trouble for people here you see is that they don't like to watch, listen or read long articles. They just want the Twitter soundbites.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,051 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Well whatever chance he had back in February going in with everything he had inc, full mobilization and being succeeding, that chance is gone now. His mobilization will take at least 6 mths to prepare his army, and that's at a minimum, and assuming that he will have all the gear and logistics in pace. And then he will have to face a heavily armed and experienced Ukraine force , who will in the intervening time further increased their abilities, and presumably made even more territorial gains ( if not actually outright winning the war )



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,222 ✭✭✭✭briany


    By the time the Russians try to come back, Ukraine would be in NATO, and Russia will not attack for the same reason they don't attack Estonia or Latvia (spoiler: it's not because of Russia's magnanimous nature). Ukraine won't be sitting on its hands while Russia sneaks off to formulate some better plan to figure out how to more efficiently murder Ukrainians.



  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Everyone also knows the use of nuclear weapons needs approval of the military command in Russia,and i dont know of they are on speaking terms after a certain defeat in Kyiv and Kharkiv,and a certain opposition in the state Duma.

    When the US attacks?US wont attack anything unless article 5 is broken in NATO and the use of nuclear weapons have been authorized by the president of the USA in self defence against a first strike from Russia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    I think people desperatley underestimate how poor governance and the reflexive black-box decision making in the Kremlin makes for a chronically sh*t institution like the current Russian military.

    Between government and the private sector (by which I mean as yet un-defenestrated oligarchs), there are probably tops 200 men in Russia that make things happen. Few to none are there on merit, and some have quite literally murdered there way to the top (most notably Putin).

    It's unfair at this stage with what we know about how poor the Russians military is, but compare it to the professionalism of the US army. They have NCOs that would run rings around the Russian officer corps in terms of empowered decision making. Their logistics capacity is like Amazon. Their innovation cooperation with the private sector. Every wrench, every tire, every tourniquet and helmet is accounted for.

    Russia needs to radically alter its system from the Kremlin down to be credible again. They exist on the residual power of the Soviet machine only (and even that was quantity over quality).

    The cold hard reality is that if there wasn't a nuclear threat there, a NATO coalition would be deep into Russian territory sending their generals running over the Urals to hide in the forests of Siberia.



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  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    On paper Soviet union had the resources to overwhelm Finland in 1939 and Russia Chechnya in 1994 as well,but they tend to underestimate their enemies and still rely on artillery to level cities and manpower as canonfodder in their tactics,just like in ww2.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,051 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes, and what then?? If Russia decides as a last resort to use Nukes....then what? MAD? If Russia choses that path, then that's what thew will do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,493 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Ukraine goes into NATO much sooner than the 20 years and renders the problem moot, russia would need to look elsewhere for future expansion.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,422 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Russian never come out and say a thing. Always with the code. Watch for Swan Lake..🙂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,739 ✭✭✭storker




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,739 ✭✭✭storker


    The Finns didn't have heavy artillery.

    The Finns didn't have tanks.

    The Finns didn't have the backing of the world's largest superpower.

    The Ukrainians have all three.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,053 ✭✭✭Polar101


    The Kearsage and friends have been in the Baltic Sea for a while now, they took part in military excercises with the Finnish navy in mid-August - they're just there to remind Russia not to try anything stupid.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    US intelligence assessment suggests USD 300m was spent by Russia since 2014 bankrolling (typically right wing) parties in 24 countries.

    US intelligence briefing certain countries on the matter.

    Would love to know if any of that money was expended in Ireland. I would expect nothing significant but we know for certain they have cultivated dissident republicans with freebie Russia trips to nonsense Putinist forums.

    It wouldn't bring the roof down to find out they were throwing a few quid to the likes of the National Party or certain MEPs (wouldn't be right of me to name names there would it?)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,793 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    Ah, Julia. I've been watching her since her Frontline appearance in 2014. Well researched, buy full of smoke and mirrors and she has zero military knowledge or up-to-date facts. However, I agree with both of your points that Putin is, in fact, a moderate. Because I can tell you, he is surrounded by ultra-Nationalist overly-zealous generals who really do want to go all out and level Kiev. However, it's now too late.

    Plus, she mentions that Russia is now fighting NATO because of the weapons being supplied. Nonsense. I have a British-made Lee-enfield rifle. ( it was my Dads.) It's probably one of the most accurate rifles out there. ( In Syria, I came across hundreds of them, still in use, with all the original cleaning gear still in the stock).It's British. It was used by one side of the Irish Civil War in the early 1920's and actually SUPPLIED to them by the British. Does this mean that some Irishmen in the war were actually fighting the British? No!

    Trust me, if Nato does get involved, and personally I believe it will at some stage before this war ends, it will be game over for a functioning Russian administration in 48 hours. It will start with satellites being hit and go from there. A US-led NATO logistical operation is a sight to see. Christ, the US Navy was even doing a trial run Convoy across the Atlantic a few months ago to practice getting weapons and food to Europe without being attacked by subs. NATO has never been more ready since its inception, but they are not fighting the Russians, the Ukranians are.

    Back to Julia. She's nice to look at, has amazing knowledge and contacts within Russia, but is playing to US audiences. Mark my words, she will be a US Secretary of State within 10 years, as a commenter also pointed out.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,135 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Sanctions biting just a little bit more.

    Bloomberg has reported that the Kremlin’s gains from its fossil fuel resources, which account for more than a third of nation’s budget, fell to 671.9bn roubles ($11.1bn) in August, the lowest since June 2021, using calculations based on Russian finance ministry data.


    The figure is down 13% from July and is a 3.4% decline from 12 months ago.



This discussion has been closed.
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