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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,447 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    If Russia wants to play a longer game, it will mean the collapse of the Russian Federation. They don't have the manpower, capital or the technology to challenge the west.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Not really. To be "fair" to his intelligence and guile, he didn't just get promoted into the job, he went from being a lowly KG used to B agent in the provinces to running the largest nation on earth during one of its most tumultuous times where too many wrong moves would result in rapid onset lead poisoning as it did for many. And he held onto that power for over twenty years, while keeping mostly the older generation on his side and giving many Russians who lived through the dark days of the 90's some semblance of normality, and more, self confidence.

    He seems to have lost the run of himself in the last few years as he tries to make his reign and legacy a historical one(common enough with ageing autocrats), but he played the game extremely well up to that point.

    Including kicking off wars in Georgia, Chechnya, taking Crimea, as well as proxy stuff like Syria where he closed off possible pipelines to Europe that might rival his own, and got away with it. Unlike say the US overseas misadventures putin won more than he lost. He was more than competent for most of his life. No wonder he reckoned he could get away with this too, but hubris kicked in.

    I suspect if he were the putin of ten or more years ago he would have approached this very differently. I again suspect if he'd "just" gone into the "independent republics" after some BS truth/excuse wrangling in the UN, wheeling out "evidence" of Ukrainian WMD and kids with missing limbs(A la the US and WMD before him) he would have faced some static, but nothing like this. He lost the second he made a run for Kyiv. Even if he'd taken it.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Well, they could have capital and technology...but Vlad and his mates looted the store. One of the primary causes of the Russian strategic collapse is industrial-scale corruption.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    image.png

    Without NATO the Ukranians would have collapsed by now into a series of partisan resistance fighters. Right now NATO is providing signals intelligence to Ukraine (see screenshot), they have co-ordinators on the ground, they have supplied the weapons and the intelligence that have blunted the Russians tactics at arms length. Right now Ukranians re being trained using NATO doctrine in Britain. After years studying the Russian military doctrine NATO understand their weaknesses and how to exploit that. The corruption across the Russian state has done the other part to destroy the Russian army. Cut the pretence that NATO is not involved, it is the edge the Ukrainians have over the Russians.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @Pa ElGrande Ukraine has ~1,200 KM border with Russia and another ~1,000 KM with Belarus. There is no choke point, those borders are impossible to seal and Russia will always be there, testing, looking for weakness, in addition Ukraine that is part of NATO (it de facto is given the tactics, training and weapons) presents a continued security threat to Russia. That makes Moscow paranoid and given the failure of their current tactics, it also makes them desperate and more willing to consider tactical nuclear strikes as a means to compensate for these failures.


    You're over stating Russia, so what they have nuclear weapons, chances are when ukraine has total control of all of their borders they will also develop a nuclear capability of some kind, along with a massively funded and modernised military,

    Russia now has Sweden and Finland to deal with now ukraine will be their least of their worries



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,051 ✭✭✭jmreire




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11



    Smoke rising near Chaltyr village of Rostov region

    Russia proper is under attack, nuke territory

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely....all dictators tend to go mad eventually and Vlad is no exception.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,051 ✭✭✭jmreire


    But even if they had, what could they do about it? Go against the State?? Not going to happen. Now in the wake of Putins ouster, You will have many claimants to the powerless objectors tag.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,515 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    'Friends of Ukraine' which include NATO members are indeed greatly assisting Ukraine. But this is a wider grouping of states who view the expansionist aims of Russia as a threat to European and regional stability, and the greater world economy.

    We are not members of NATO and are helping one way or another. We have sent modest enough logistics assistance but have supported Ukraine at every turn in EU sanctions. Every single one of us are paying more for fuels, goods and services than we were at the start of the year. Part of these costs are related to underwriting the costs of Ukrainian resistance.

    Russia likes to state this as a war against NATO in their propaganda now, once they moved past Nazis. What the Russian media, leadership and public are slowly learning is that not only do Ukrainians not want to live under Russian control but that the greater population of Europe is steeled against them too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Russian elections are in 2024, the Siloviki are in charge right now and they have suppressed all opposition. They may split into factions, the military faction have blotted their copy book and won't have the confidence of the people. They will fight among themselves for power that will mostly be under the hood, it may come from people who get kicked out of the inner circle (they tend to fall from high rise buildings). The opposition parties are probably not in a position yet to challenge them, and would have to broaden their electoral base among the conservatives.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,796 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    Where does one start? Maybe bullet-points might be the way to go here. OK. Ahem.

    Comrade,

    1. Ukraine is not NATO. Trust me on this, if NATO did become involved, say tomorrow fir arguments sake, thus whole thing would be over right quick. NATO are ready, and I'm talking 4 hours kind of ready. One look at their daily aircraft operations would tell you that.

    2. There will be no Nuclear strike/detonation. For starters the prevailing winds are Moscow-bound the majority of the time ( for a dirty bomb) plus Putin's generals, not Putin, holds the deck of cards here and they, above all else, know that the conventional strike, from Nato, that would follow a nuclear detonation of any kind would not be worth it.

    3. You're forgetting about Kaliningrad. ( as most people do). If Russia so much as sneezes at Ukraine, or indeed any EU/NATO aligned country, you can say goodbye to Kaliningrad. I've been tracking the massive increase in air traffic, both commercial and military, into the enclave over the last 2 months. This is Putins aircraft carrier ( seeing that their actual, and only, carrier is still in dry dock and won't be finished before the port becomes ice-bound). It's all well and good flying in huge and expensive arms systems and equipment into Kaliningrad, but the Polish are itching to cross that border. Will Putin risk losing Kaliningrad as well? I doubt it.

    You underestimate both the zeal of the Ukranian armed forces and the prime opportunity presented to the West to, once and for all, put Russia back on the bold step, so to speak.

    There will be no deal until the Ukranian flag flies over Sevastapol.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,515 ✭✭✭zv2


    ...

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,515 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,030 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Are you trying to be funny? Are you that lacking in self-awareness?

    "Ukraine that is part of NATO (it de facto is given the tactics, training and weapons) presents a continued security threat to Russia."



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    If we want to know when NATO is actually involved then watch for the Russians being pushed out everywhere at twice even the breakneck speed of the last few days. And we'll know the Americans are involved when we see this kinda thing:

    burger nato.jpg

    😁

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,796 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    God-dammit....

    Doesn't this make you want to get up off you ass and, you know...

    https://twitter.com/Internl_Leaks/status/1569265768885551112?s=20&t=MRpxuJqB-_PLm0vZylZ9-w



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,030 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    What is it - not viewable by anyone without a twitter account?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,730 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Follow through, it's Crimea from a week ago (so, technically RuSSia I guess.)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,503 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    It's the attack in Crimea from weeks ago, just a different angle.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,030 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,585 ✭✭✭XsApollo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,730 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    It's pure conjecture that the RuSSian government looks like, is shaped like, or in any way resembles what's in place today, 2 years from now. Could be a very different story; at the rate they're going, that joke meme of Zelenskyy angry about the liberation of the Kremlin is as likely to be true as any point you've raised here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,730 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Article quoting official spokesperson for the Ukrainian Southern command.

    Russian units near Kherson negotiating surrender, Ukraine says




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,030 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I hear Russia is petitioning the IOC to make ballot box stuffing an olympic sport.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Weren't they kicked out of the Olympics even before the war, for blatant doping?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,051 ✭✭✭jmreire


    I have lived in Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan ( and most other @stans ) and that's only in that neck of the woods. You can throw in Africa, Asia, Middle east and Russia. So I'm pretty familiar with their appearances, customs etc. In Afghanistan and Pakistan ( not so much in Iran that I saw ) people with red hair and blue eyes while not exactly plentiful, did exist. And not only that, but they like it so much, they dye not only their hair and beards a type of Orange / Red color, ( Henna) but their animals too, it's that popular.



This discussion has been closed.
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