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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,638 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    But this dents their narrative / delusion of Russia being a great nation and a force for good. They're not 'fine' with war crimes being committed by the regime in all the above places - they are in total denial that it ever happened.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    No i'd disagree. I'd say a lot of them do know exactly what happened they just don't care. No different than say war crimes carried out by Americans in Iraq/Afghanistan the population didn't care or don't want to know.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,656 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    I'm looking more at it now and apparently the river itself is not sufficient enough (read it's too shallow in a lot of places) to be considered a natural obstacle or a defensive line. You would assume the Russians know that too so where are they going to try and halt the advance? Line 5 on the original tweet I quoted maybe?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,921 ✭✭✭dasdog


    LazerPig sums up the ineptitude




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Well, not that I claim to have more than a surface level understanding but I would have thought the pre-February 'borders' between the 'peoples republics' are heavily fortified (on both sides) and would offer much more in the way of defence potential.

    Of course one of the prerequisites of a successful defence is the willingness to fight and the Russians and their proxies seem to have run out of this commodity...



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,030 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I think you are going at this from entirely the wrong angle. Putin is motivated by what he wants, not what Russian propoganda might lead you to believe he thinks.

    I doubt very much that Putin believed his own propaganda machine nonsense that the greatest danger likely to be faced by Russian troops in Odessa would be being crushed by hugs of joyous welcome.

    Putin is motivated by wanting to reconstitute the borders and geographic control of the USSR. I'd say his parlaying of energy supplies to gain near absolute control of Germany and much of Europe via the incredibly successful Gazprom funding of the anti-nuke and green movements in Europe, gave him a taste for what control of resouces could deliver.

    And if there's something far more powerful than control of energy, it's control of food. 'No country is more than 3 meals away from revolution' has no energy related equivalent. When we want to convey a sense of gravitas we might use the term 'gut feeling'.

    China is spreading it's influence in Africa and many other less developed regions in order to steal their resources, through bribes to the ruling corrupt, the PM of the Solomon Islands being a classic example. They will own Sri Lanka shortly. A Chinese mining company in Ghana was even tunneling under the prospect owned by an Australian company and stealing their gold. And they have been boiling the frog in Australia for decades, buying up as much agricultural land and mines as the Australians were stupid enough to sell them.

    China is doing all this with money, Putin, I think, wanted to counter and emulate it with control of food supplies, bought with artillery shells, a handful of entirely expendable, conscripts, and a lot of dead Ukrainians.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,030 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,030 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Don't we have a used bicycle salesman as minister in charge of one of the most important portfolios imaginable in an energy crisis?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,051 ✭✭✭jmreire


    While in Pakistan, one day having a ( non-alcoholic ) drink on the sidewalk with some friends, a group of teenager students happened to pass by, all black haired and brown eyed except for one who had red hair and blue-eye's. We locked eyes as he approached and walked past, and ever after passing, he kept looking backwards, and I kept staring at him. Definitely some kind of communication across time was taking place. But then I remembered the British Army were in that part of the world especially when it was still a part of India, and where the British Army went, the Irish went too. With their red hair and blue eyes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    All part & parcel of a subtle or not so subtle, PR and disinformation progrom.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,641 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Blue eyes or red hair in pakistan originates from further north. You see similar on occasion in Afghanistan and the other stans, and in to central Russia. Nothing to do with the Irish. Pashtuns in Afghanistan often had red hair and green eyes, and similar can be found in pockets of north-central russia. A common ancestor, but not from the irish. There is plenty of historical record of red haired peoples living in that part of the world in the distant past.

    If they were Irish they'd have big thick heads on them



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Ukraine has ~1,200 KM border with Russia and another ~1,000 KM with Belarus. There is no choke point, those borders are impossible to seal and Russia will always be there, testing, looking for weakness, in addition Ukraine that is part of NATO (it de facto is given the tactics, training and weapons) presents a continued security threat to Russia. That makes Moscow paranoid and given the failure of their current tactics, it also makes them desperate and more willing to consider tactical nuclear strikes as a means to compensate for these failures.

    Politically, Putins successor needs to be considered, there is no love for a Gorbachev type president in Russia, Yeltsin got caught between a rock and a hard place, i.e. between the Communists and the Oligarchs, Putin aka the Siloviki, was the middle way out at the time. Within the next 2 years Putin is gone, so today's situation can atrophy as he runs down the clock and Russia initiates a mass mobilisation which just draws the war out for his successor to deal with. Western Europe does not have the resources to hold that long, and will be facing internal political crisis of its own. In addition the United States will have changed, with an ongoing civil conflict of its own that will get much worse.

    It does not matter how totalitarian the regime in Moscow is, Ukraine is going to have to do a deal with them, and then keep watching their backs. This situation can get much worse, for example the war expands on new fronts like the Middle East. World War II started in the 1930s with Japan, the Spanish civil war (a left vs right conflict), the sovereign debt crisis of the 1930s, the trade wars, and then German expansion, the final phase from 1939 took 6 years to play out. Going on that historic timescale it will probably be the early 1930s before we have an era of relative peace again, new Bretton woods type agreement and treaties etc.

    Therefore, the parameters of a deal have to be explored because the politicians on all sides must lay the groundwork within their administrations which takes time. Today, the attitude is "we must win, no compromise", this is stalemate and will keep drawing more men into the meat grinder. Ukraine (aka NATO) has now drawn a line in the Chernozem of Ukraine and the Russian administration knows that it cannot proceed today with its original grand design, it will play for time.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,997 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    I don't think so. As the first major counter-offensive, at least with the 'new-trained, new-equipped forces', I can see good argument for Kiev going heavier than it might ordinarily need to on the main effort, and not try to over-reach by splitting its strength. There would be many political/propoganda eyes on it, better to have one avenue of attack achieve notable success than two potentially achieve little.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Does anyone remember the story from a previous thread on ukraine,

    An ortodox priest was doing some live stream or similar taking questions and giving opinions ,one young lad about 15 came on and had a chat but at some point the young lad said he didn't believe in god, considering his age not uncommon,

    The following night a news broadcast showed a heavy handed police raid on his family's home,he was arrested and detained under some mental health grounds ,and carted off to a mental asylum for re-education.

    This is the me mentality your dealing with as others on here who have real world experience in Russia have touched on



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 860 ✭✭✭mikewest


    If you are far enough north in Pakistan, Afghanistan or Iran red hair is not uncommon (less common is the red hair and blue eyes but not very rare). You should have asked the locals as it was them who informed me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,051 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Careful there now Comrade...are you insinuating that the State is wrong in its news presentation?????



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    yes, they seem to be on the back-foot outside the Donbas, but they are unlikely to retreat inside the Donbas

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,444 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Ukraine can deal with them once it has taken all its pre-2014 territory back and look set to invade parts of Russia proper..

    Russia as a military force is finished for the next decade or so, so they have nothing to bargain anymore. They are a busted flush and talk about WMD is just that talk.

    If Russia used one, it will be an international pariah for a generation, putting its own citizens into poverty for 50 years.

    Russia cannot win this one, at all. Its already lost.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,030 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Even more tough luck is that the Russians are rounding up and conscripting those who took up Russian passports, telling them something like: 'now you have to pay for it; you didn't think it was free?'.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    I fully expect every road and especially railway in maybe a 10/20 km range of border deliberately destroyed and everything mined, eventually it be worlds largest no man’s land like Korean border, Russians shown they can’t operate far without roads or railways

    Anyways todays papers




  • Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I’d lay good money he’s not wearing that hat today.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,030 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    There you go again with your absolute nonsense. Russia is the security threat to all the countries it borders, not the other way round. How anyone could suck up and regurgitate that soviet era nonsense...

    Are you after an invite to that Russian talking heads show so you can go on about Zelensky being a Nazi and how Ukraine needs to be de-Nazified?



  • Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    IF you were fighting NATO you’d know about it. If you can’t get that basic analysis right we can forget everything else you wrote.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    I recall in the early days of this conflict talking to some people and they were all 'NATO caused this, NATO that and NATO the other'. They always framed the invasion of Ukraine in terms of the evils of NATO. Which if you knew more of them, was based in a deep dislike of the USA. For them all the ills of the world were and are machinated by the USA and by extension in their view NATO.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,051 ✭✭✭jmreire




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Is not that what I am saying? Russia will continue to be a security threat even when defeated in Ukraine, that is what empires are like, shrunken from the Soviet Union days as the Russian federation is. I am saying that Russia still has the resources to drag this war out and will continue to do so for at least the next two years, by which time Putins reign has come to an end. Ukraine is going to be in much worse shape after two years of continued war, with losses in time, material and men and debts that it is saddled. It will take them a decade afterwards to recover from this. Who is going to pay for that reconstruction? Russia?

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,051 ✭✭✭jmreire




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,043 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    Lots of assumptions. How do you know Russia has at least 2 more years in them?

    No one is too worried now about the costs after this. Lets get it finished first and then deal with that.



This discussion has been closed.
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