Russia - threadbanned users in OP

The only advantage Russians have ever had is their ability to suffer. They have raw materials but you'd be surprised how in only a matter of years that hand could be taken away from them. Europe can pivot, sure it will be painful but they will develop other solution,sources of energy, trading partners

There stated goal is 1991 border. This can only be achieved by invading Russia in my opinion. Why would Russia give up territory gained in Ukraine without the jeopardy of risking their own territory?

Edit: and what will stop them from trying again in 10 or 20 years, if they don't have something to fear?

Wow. Simple but powerful from Zelensky.

"So the question is what does a long lasting peaceful resolution look like?"

This was outlined well enough earlier today - Russia withdraws all troops back across the internationally recognised borders between Ukraine & Russia prior to Feb 2022. That Crimea is a bargaining chip, Russia to keep on the basis of agreeing substantive reparation costs, the extradition of war criminals and a solid internationally backed treaty that will respect these borders and the autonomy of the Ukrainian state.

The alternative may be the restoration of Crimea to Ukraine and the complete defeat of Russian ambitions in Ukraine. Long term punitive sanctions to punish Russia, whilst the West largely picks up reconstruction costs and using seized Russian assets to help finance this.

Major loss of face for Russian interests but they have been heading down a losing path one way or the other, since the early days of this war. It was ill thought out and over ambitious and there's a price to pay.

Crimea needs to be de-militarized apart from the naval base if retained by Russia.

Excellent piece by Anne Appelbaum in The Atlantic on the implications of Ukrainian victory. Well worth a read.

Will be an interesting week ahead. So much has changed with this new phase of war.

Firmly believe the events of the past six days will go down in military history.

I think, as the scale of the Ukrainian breakthrough becomes clear, that the truly momentous events will occur in Moscow and our focus will switch from the military realm to the political.

This could happen shockingly fast. Dictatorships can appear monolithic from a distance but in reality can be fragile edifices.

What's the story with Kherson, now, I wonder? Ukraine appears to be saying that the southern offensive was a feint to draw Russian forces from the north-east. If that's true, what will the forces in the south do now? Will they pack up and go north to try and hold the territory gained, or will they try to take advantage of the relatively limited gains made in the south. Ukrainian forces look like they're inching closer to Kherson, but it sounds like it's been a punishing slog and costly in terms of men and equipment, so it makes me wonder where they'll decide to go with that.

The republics depend on scraps from the table from Moscow, without much employment or wealth opportunities they are still viable recruiting grounds. Not so the large population centers in Russia who have better opportunities, who are likely to more resistant to "the draft". Even the men with fake military documents (bribe to avoid mandatory conscription) are now getting caught. They can grind away for a while yet unless there is significant backlash against the administration in the coming months.

They have a large Russian force pinned against the Dnieper and can grind them down at their leisure.

And, considering the usual rhetoric, Soloviev isn't taking rhe beating well and, looking for someone to blame, is taking punishment to a predictable level.

A lot of people are absolutely livid over the attack on the Ukrainian power grid, seeing it as a mean and spiteful act by Putin and not even connected to Russia's war effort.