Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

Villa05 · 07-09-2022 05:33PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585518#Comment_119585518

I would suspect that the vast majority in that sector would be housed in comparison to other sectors

combat14 · 07-09-2022 05:48PM

Gigs being cancelled around the country as cost-of-living crisis hits ticket sales

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40955783.html

are the tell tale signs of the next crash already starting .. or is this merely the poor mouth with the hat out for the budget syndrome ... time will tell ... great to talk about continued soaring house prices the reality is most people will struggle with sheer basic survival bills this winter ...

L1011 · 07-09-2022 05:55PM

Cost of hotels for both performers (impacting promoter costs) and punters (just won't or can't go) is going to be a significant factor there.

Jonnyc135 · 07-09-2022 05:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585356#Comment_119585356

Also worth noting some of the big tech jobs in dublin that are sustaining the high house prices also rely on discretionary spending and advertisements, when the big cap companies in the Nasdaq starting showing signs of reduced revenue it will drop and pull everything else down with it.

As regards the broader Irish housing market it may hold up better than we think as US manufacturing/pharmaceutical companies will look very competitive with the poor euro. SME sector could be the timebomb, if this goes off and Unemployment in this sector rises stubbornly, who knows that awaits.

07-09-2022 06:06PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585750#Comment_119585750

2023 EP tickets go on sale on Saturday. I’d bet they fly off the shelves just as fast as always

drogon. · 07-09-2022 07:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119582215#Comment_119582215

Buy, Buy, Buy folks.. Don't want to miss out !!!

07-09-2022 07:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586172#Comment_119586172

I suppose that is the prevailing attitude when there is high demand and short supply, the alternative being pay considerably more in rent than you will on a mortgage.

drogon. · 07-09-2022 08:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586216#Comment_119586216

Ah yup. Honestly if you own a house, refinance it and buy a second one. Prices only going up imo.

07-09-2022 08:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586460#Comment_119586460

Are people doing that? Seems kinda stupid, investors buy low, sell high, not buy high sell higher.

drogon. · 07-09-2022 08:29PM

Ah sure if prices are only going to go up. Stupid not to invest in it if you ask me. Especially if you own property already, Refinance it and buy more. 👀

AySeeDoubleYeh · 07-09-2022 08:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585833#Comment_119585833

EP isn't where you'd see the bite first (or second) - smaller gigs are

07-09-2022 08:42PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586518#Comment_119586518

I’m not sure if you are being sarcastic or clueless, either way, it’s stupid to refinance and buy at/near the height of the market, in the expectation of profit.

drogon. · 07-09-2022 08:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586636#Comment_119586636

Well at least we know you won’t put your money where your mouth is, especially if prices are only going up.

Tonesjones · 07-09-2022 08:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585356#Comment_119585356

Who will be doing all of the striking?

Only strikers are public sector workers and they got a deal.

SME employees generally wouldn't be unionised. Most will be concerned about losing their jobs due to recession. They won't be striking

Who's going to strike? Tech and finance workers? Lol

07-09-2022 08:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586721#Comment_119586721

Where have I ever said I invest stupidly?

There is a world of difference between thinking prices will not fall in the short term due to demand/supply, and refinancing a home to invest in property. It is mind boggling that you think they are linked. So, I can only assume you have no understanding of property investment, rather than some childish attempt at sarcasm.

fergus1001 · 07-09-2022 09:15PM

I'm starting to think this is an echo chamber, market sentiment is what drives prices if sentiment is down prices will go down

Anyone saying no nay never to prices coming down are away with the Healy Rae fairies

Timing belt · 07-09-2022 09:17PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586766#Comment_119586766

wait a couple of months and they will strike as the deal they accepted will no longer be good enough

07-09-2022 09:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586904#Comment_119586904

I don’t think anyone is saying prices will not drop at some stage, if you keep saying they will everyday, some day you will be able to say you are correct. But at the moment, even though the cost of living has risen substantially, there are still lots of people with well paid jobs and savings. So it is clear that prices are not dropping as would be expected. That doesn’t suit a lot of people, but as long as there are more buyers than houses, prices will stay relatively high.

combat14 · 07-09-2022 09:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586954#Comment_119586954

the question is will there be enough buyers left if interest rates continue to rise like the united states and cost of living keeps rising far beyond gross let alone net pay rises ...

consumer sentiment hit a 22 month low (53.4) last month .. will be interesting to see what direction it turns as we enter for many this very long winter ...

Timing belt · 07-09-2022 09:46PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586997#Comment_119586997

So consumer sentiment is still positive just not as positive as it has been…. Needs to fall below 50 for it to become negative

awec · 07-09-2022 09:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586904#Comment_119586904

This is not how it works.

Prices will go down when people can't buy houses. This is how it has always been, this is how it will forever be. If people have the money to spend, they will spend it. Banks raise interest rates to forcibly stop spending, banks don't tell people "just stop spending your money" because again, sentiment never drives the market.

Realities drive the market. So long as people can afford houses, they will buy houses. If you think otherwise, you are deluded.

There is absolutely no situation where there's a ton of potential buyers sitting there with the money to buy but refusing to buy as they have a negative outlook on the future of the market, all the while watching on while prices plummet. This is fairytale fantasy land thinking. Economics does not work like this, if there are lots of buyers then prices will stay high. For prices to come down, buyers need removed from the market.

combat14 · 07-09-2022 10:02PM

interesting to see oil down sharply today almost 6% lower below 90 dollars a barrell on recession fears this despite news of potential opec output cuts ...

Jonnyc135 · 07-09-2022 10:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119587270#Comment_119587270

Annoying thing for us as the euro is devaluing its not making a big an impact as it should.

combat14 · 07-09-2022 10:46PM

What will the ECB interest rate rise mean for your mortgage?

The ECB, which raised its interest rate by half a percentage point in July, is expected to deliver a second big rate hike this week

https://www.irishtimes.com/your-money/2022/09/07/what-will-ecb-interest-rate-rise-mean-for-your-mortgage/

a 1 to 1.25% increase since july doesn't look like too much of a change but if inflation doesn't fall we may see more increases later in the year .. house sales are already starting to tumble in the US

Tonesjones · 07-09-2022 10:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119587316#Comment_119587316

For electricity costs the highest energy source sets the price per unit. If gas was decoupled from energy cost estimates the price we are paying for electricity, heating etc would tumble.

Spain ,Greece and a few others are pushing for this overhaul but unlikely to happen as it took 20 years to put agreement together

Villa05 · 08-09-2022 01:15AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119587605#Comment_119587605

I'm sure it could be done on an emergency basis

Read recently that 2 of the peat burning stations could be put back online running on renewables very quickly if the call was made, apparently we are currently exporting timber for this purpose

timmyntc · 08-09-2022 10:15AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119587173#Comment_119587173

People do not buy houses simply because they can - that is nonsense.

People buy houses when they can and want to - if people expect a drop in prices, many will hold off buying until a later point in time. If enough people hold off buying expecting a drop, a drop often manifests funny enough. We arent yet at that point, but there are already many people buying below the 3.5x their income mark recently, these people could buy at a higher price point, but they dont want to. Less FTBs opting for full 3.5x (or above w exemption) mortgages is already proof that sentiment is waning

awec · 08-09-2022 10:27AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588516#Comment_119588516

Let's say there are 100 buyers waiting. They all decide to wait and prices go down. Then they see prices down, so they decide to buy. What do you think happens prices when they decide to buy?

Prices will only go down when people cannot buy. You need to remove buyers from the market. Prices dropped after 08 because a lot of people got removed from the market, not because people decided they just didn't want to buy any more.

This is back to this fairy tale thinking where people think a market crash will affect everyone but themselves.

Sentiment does not drive the market, it never has. Sentiment may play a part, but real realities drive the market. Again, what you are saying is like the ECB just asking people to stop spending their money rather than actually hiking rates to actually take the money out of their pockets. You cannot rely on sentiment alone to move things where you want them to go.

And finally, the rental market in Ireland is insane right now, and there are no indications whatsoever it's going to get better. If anything, it's going to get worse. If you really think there are people out there stuck renting who will not jump the first chance they get into buying then you are deluded.

On the flip side, there is certainly an argument to be made for investors holding off.

timmyntc · 08-09-2022 10:43AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588589#Comment_119588589

Sentiment is reality - sentiment is a measure of intention to buy. If people do not intend to buy, then they are not a part of the demand.

Plenty more people were able to buy in 06 with 100% mortgages but didnt because they saw sense. Sentiment that it was unsustainable and that prices would eventually come back down helped to deter some wary would-be buyers. Things could have been even worse. Same thing applies now, plenty of people who will just put it off for the next while, especially with rate rises on the way. That does impact demand.

Villa05 · 08-09-2022 10:45AM

Stinks to high heaven, but this is what happens in Ireland and after this transaction, they get the water meter contract despite much lower cost offers

Certainly a situation that warrants further investigation given the taxpayer potential hit in

Debt write off

Losses in sale of asset

Questionable award of a state contract

The Commission also determined that the transaction was, from the perspective of the bank, so tainted by impropriety and wrongdoing, that it was not commercially sound.

This finding, the report states, is based on the concealment of Brian Harvey, a Siteserv co-founder, of his “material interest in Mr O’Brien’s bid”. It notes that Harvey was in negotiations with O’Brien, through his advisor Niall McFadden, about a shareholding he would acquire in O’Brien’s new company if the businessman’s bid was successful.

The report concluded he had concealed that he had agreed in principle with O’Brien that he would acquire at least 6% of the shares in the new company

https://www.thejournal.ie/siteserv-report-5859961-Sep2022/

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Comments

The ECB, which raised its interest rate by half a percentage point in July, is expected to deliver a second big rate hike this week

Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting