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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Bonds are getting totally wrecked now as they entered a bear market for the first time in a generation, European bonds are the hardest hit down 40% YTD. Will be interesting to see what happens when expiring bonds are due and no one wants to buy them again at current rates, that is going to be the problem, having to settle them.

    bonds.jpg


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Details of the G7 oil price cap on Russia should be today, hopefully it does not turn into another boomerang. The last thing we need is oil price going mad.

    The idea is that the G7 will say to Russia that they will only buy oil and refined products at the price they insist on and block insurance.

    Also looks like the JCPOA deal with Iran is not going well which would bring 1-2 mBpd to market. The US is stopping supply from strategic reserves next month that's another million. Interesting times on the oil front.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,877 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Have the G7 not already banned Russian oil? Apart from the EU?

    Can't see Vlad agreeing to any price cap, he'd quicker turn the taps off completely?

    Considering the EU will be banning his oil by next year anyway. Unless im missing some nuances that makes the G7 actions relevant? Which is very possible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    Airports are jammer's because it's cheaper to holiday abroad. If you don't know why then you need to get out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    Russian oil is already well below market (and below pre invasion price), this tightens screws on it further

    most of G7 already cut or about cut Russian oil imports, the bigger picture here is China and India deciding if they want to join in and pay even less for oil or not join in and pay more, directly plays to their greed



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    The EU have no coherent policy. They make statements early on about turning away from Russia, not needing its energy ect. Multiple sanctions month after month. Now they are trying to blame Russia for not providing the energy.


    They want it or they dont. The EU countries need it regardless of what soundbites they say. Elections will sort out this madness here and it other EU countries.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Russia have said they wont supply oil to anyone engaging in the price cap on Russian oil - whether they can actually do that without crashing their economy is another story.

    We could yet see big spikes in oil prices



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    Yes and I see in plain English they have banned crude oil as well as stopped North Stream 2. Remove those restrictions and the EU will be in a better place.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Sounds like with oil they will not be supplying oil or refined products to the G7 or anyone else who goes along with it. So less income for Russia if prices don't go up and no doubt a big cut in production. Granted oil and gas provide the main income but there are quite a few other things that they have a large global market share of.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,989 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    increasing public borrowing is the only way out of our problems, the over reliance on private borrowing in running our economies has failed!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,399 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Oil is easier to replace than gas. Crude oil by tanker will be banned but by pipeline is ok (as Hungary is landlocked) for now.

    There are zero sanctions on gas from Russia. Any cutoffs/reductions are down to Russia. So you think if Germany certifies NS2, the gas would just flow magically?

    There's some amount of delusion from people thinking A) the EU sanctioned Russian gas and that's why Russia is cutting off/reducing the flow and B) if the EU removed these non-existent sanctions the gas would flow at 100% and all will be rosey.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69



    That is true i said that. However some things are not sold in huge volume so do not bring in a lot of income. In some cases rare materials can be quite cheap to buy and some are very expensive also, but there is not a big global demand for them. But for the industries who do rely on them it is very important.

    Shortages of some materials could shut down whole industries, not just the metal itself but the alloys of those materials can't get replaced quickly. If it can't get replaced production grinds to a halt, just one little part.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    They all impact each other, sanction one and demand for the other increases.

    The reason the EU is going to go to Shix is because it needs Russian energy. Untill thats fixed they have no other option then to be at Russia's mercy. Pay up of F off.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    • And what exactly is " energy industry equipment, technology and services " Maybe something like a turbine or six ?


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    For which an exemption was made, turbine fixed and returned to Russia

    who are the ones that cut gas exports

    not that they actually needed the turbines as they could pulled same from ns2

    but hey who needs facts



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    So send it to Russia along with paperwork saying there are no sanctions on maintenance of energy parts and transportation, easy.

    Blackmail !!!!!!!!

    We hit Russia with everything we have and they reduced our gas in return.Now they will not accept our billions we want to spend with them so they can buy more missiles and bullets to kill people with.

    We are going to turn the currency to rubble, we are going to wreck it's economy. Have you heard how ridiculous it sounds, what did they expect, nothing ?

    Europe have been told by everyone there is no substitute for Russian energy, it cannot be replaced. So either pay the price and accept what is given or stop buying it altogether and buy from somewhere else.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    Europe and west has not “hit Russia with everything we got”

    Sanctions on oil alone yet to start

    Sanctions on gas we’re weak to begin with and it was Putin decided to cut of his biggest customers in process destroying Gazprom whose exports now collapsed



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    Which part of “Russia was the one to self sanction when it came to gas” you have difficulty understanding?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    How about Estonia with 25% inflation.

    I have an idea let's stop all Russian people coming into out country, all 1.8 million of them who spend money each year in out hotels, museums and bars. What the **** is that going to do ?

    Lets stop buying Russian gold. UK bought 90% of Russian gold in Europe and stopped buying it in March, what is it going to do ? There is a thing called the Shanghai gold exchange and people who buy gold will not care where it comes from.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    They are selling 80% less for 5 times more, do you get it ?

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    This is the spirit, just stop buying it.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    What about one of the countries in EU whose very existence is threatened by Russia (with a history of being wiped out and subjugated by Russia and population ethnically cleansed)

    One of many countries calling for ever more sanctions

    Inflation is a minor concern to them compared to the alternative of being subjugated by your murdering hero who you keep worshiping



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    @brickster69 care to explain why Turkey who is getting very cheap Russian oil and gas (as Erdogan is best buddy with Dear Leader) has 80% inflation ?

    Could it possibly be that there is more to inflation than energy /s



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    Then one in your post I quoted, starts with an E

    Post edited by Darth Putin on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    I see, maybe he comes for you tonight as well when you are sleeping Darth. He is coming to get you Darth, you can run but you cannot hide from him 🤣🤣

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    So no explanation at all for Turkey inflation which drives a truck thru your “let’s bend over for Putin to fight inflation” thesis?



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    How people don't see that "Darth Putin" is just here to hype up the war and try to distract people from the obvious massive negative consequences and engage with him is beyond me..



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