A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Pussyhands · 31-08-2022 11:20AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119546817#Comment_119546817

As opposed to the likes of you and others who are trying to push people off this thread because they post "misery news" or whatever.

Wolf359f · 31-08-2022 11:21AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119546673#Comment_119546673

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119546686#Comment_119546686

The figures I quoted where from last year. Obviously things are changing fast, but it was to correct people who assumed commercial rates were higher than residential. (that looks to be changing this year) I was trying to make a point that if all households will be struggling to pay energy bills, maybe the suppliers could use that leeway in the difference between commercial rates and residential rates to give households a little breathing room. They could (based on last years difference) reduce the charge for residential rates by 25% and still have made a profit. As commercial rates this year seem to be increasing more than residential rates, I'd guess that's no longer an option.

It's been 11 years since households paid 16c a unit!

Darth Putin · 31-08-2022 11:25AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119546887#Comment_119546887

I am old enough to remember real poverty in this country and multiple recessions, with majority of my and subsequent generations emigrating

Excuse me for being sceptical of Russian led doom-mongering when the actual data is showing an economy and more importantly employment that for most part is doing quite well

Cluedo Monopoly · 31-08-2022 11:35AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119546906#Comment_119546906

I will never try to push people off a thread. I have never reported anyone or put anyone on ignore either (don't know how if I am honest). I am fascinated by varied outlooks. There is no fear of you leaving I am sure.

But I will fact check. And I'll make no apologies for doing so. The 'no fertiliser = no food' line was a perfect example.

And without repeating myself, I do expect another recession. 100%. The question for me is how deep and how long, particularly for Ireland.

Wanderer78 · 31-08-2022 11:38AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119546933#Comment_119546933

we ve become overly dependent on metrics such as (un)employment in gaging how well things are, its clearly obvious we re in serious trouble, most sme's are in trouble, and most are employed by them, the cost of living is spiraling, and theres no clear, concise plans being made on how to deal with all of this, this is a serious problem for us all......

Darth Putin · 31-08-2022 11:42AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119547000#Comment_119547000

Which is an issue worthy a discussion on its own thread IMHO but instead we get constant “ruble stronk” and “bright gas lit flares eminate from god emperor Putin rear” type posts from a few conspiracy theory forum regulars who are cheering for a murdering gobshite.

Pussyhands · 31-08-2022 11:43AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119546849#Comment_119546849

They're just being contrarian for contrarians sake. They'll be the same people blaming de gubberment when things go tits up and they have to drink a bowl water for breakfast because of the loans they've taken out.

rob316 · 31-08-2022 11:50AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119546908#Comment_119546908

Households were doing something wrong so, I looked up a jan 2020 bill for my house and it was 14c a unit.

Subzero3 · 31-08-2022 12:06PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119546772#Comment_119546772

Revoult up till the last few months.

Dohnjoe · 31-08-2022 12:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119547037#Comment_119547037

We've been hearing about how everything is "about to go tits up" for over a decade now.

Will there be a global recession at some stage in the future? It's highly likely. What form will it take? We don't know precisely. That hasn't stopped internet lunatics with their endless doomsday yammering.

We've just been through a global pandemic, and then a back-to-back war in Europe with a full-on energy crisis. We're actually doing relatively well considering. Keyword: relatively. Will things get worse before they get better? I suspect so. That doesn't mean we will be dying of starvation as one poster here suggested.

People have a habit of projecting the worst case scenario and if anyone disagrees in the slightest they gaslight with "oh you think everything will be perfect". Operating in emotional extremes.

Being realistic about the situation is very different from being hysterical about it.

enricoh · 31-08-2022 12:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119547034#Comment_119547034

I doubt anyone in this thread mentions Russia more than you- maybe revolution17, maybe!

My business is thoroughly dependant on discretionary spending n by the looks of things this winter there ain't gonna be much of that! All the while my costs are going up big time.

I was in biz during the Celtic tiger n thought a lot of the Joe public spending then was a joke. Now its government spending that is the joke that'll drag us down. Maybe that makes me a Putin bot , I dunno!

Pussyhands · 31-08-2022 12:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119547193#Comment_119547193

And you're the only realist? You don't think bad news can also be realistic?

Dohnjoe · 31-08-2022 12:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119547294#Comment_119547294

Of course, but systematically focusing and cherry-picking only bad news is disingenuous. The whole picture is important, not just a narrative driven one.

bad2thebone · 31-08-2022 12:48PM

Recessions don't really effect a single person who's able to afford their mortgage or have it paid off, no kids, working in the public sector an average car and Just living the single person's lifestyle.

Bring a partner and 3 kids into it, and the bills could quadruple, more power used, education, tours, activities, food, electricity, fuel costs. Maybe two car's.

It's easy to say stop the fear mongering. Put oneself in their shoes and it's a different story.

Families or separated parents are petrified of the comming winter, I'll survive as I have no family and live alone and I've a fairly good job, no rent or mortgage. But I know people who are like, FFS here we go again, tighten up the belts and live frugally.

Subzero3 · 31-08-2022 01:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119547431#Comment_119547431

100%, if the tech sector is the only show in town regarding our GDP we really are screwed. If or when they slow down or leave.

brickster69 · 31-08-2022 01:51PM

Inflation falls to 8.9% in Ireland in August.

EOQRTL · 31-08-2022 01:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119547428#Comment_119547428

And systematically focusing and cherry-picking good news is disingenuous especially as it's so few and far between.

As pointed out earlier, it's Bertie talk that.

31-08-2022 01:56PM

what’s behind the crazy inflation in the Baltics? Energy scarcity?

Danzy · 31-08-2022 02:01PM

Maybe there is an element of doom horn ball in us but I'm looking at a 5 figure jump in electrical cost alone next year,what gas I use is little.

There are small businesses that are looking at a 6 figure jumps.

These are not big businesses, these are small local operations. This is not exceptional or standout.

In some ways this is worse than 2008 to 2010. It's facing every business now, not just high debt.

I'll close my set-up at a certain rate, that won't be a problem and I have other work. It will be a significant hit though and will mean a fairly lean year. I don't mind that, money is not everything to me and as long as I stay a float I don't care.

I was lucky to avoid bankruptcy in the last crash everything is doable after that.

There is a real disconnect here as well between those who work for themselves, small businesses owners and people who are retired or working in a big office.

It's a very different world.

Danzy · 31-08-2022 02:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119547632#Comment_119547632

The tech sector is our Russian gas

Subzero3 · 31-08-2022 02:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119547874#Comment_119547874

The simple fact is we can't live without Russian energy. Europe is dependent on it to function. When we go into recession we won't come out untill the energy issue is fixed.

Realpolitik.

Wanderer78 · 31-08-2022 02:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548112#Comment_119548112

...and the only way of doing that is becoming less reliant on international fossil fuel markets, and becoming more reliant on our own methods of energy creation, so crack the fcuk on with it......

31-08-2022 02:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548112#Comment_119548112

We don’t fix it by stopping the war turning back to Russia. This needs to be seen out to the end now. Putin is utterly untrustworthy and economic relationships between Russia and the west need to be severed.

brickster69 · 31-08-2022 02:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119547829#Comment_119547829

They are on a crusade now, no turning back.

https://twitter.com/georgvh/status/1564877577692614657

Pussyhands · 31-08-2022 02:47PM

The loans are flying in today

Worryingly, many are loans for "working capital"....

Allinall · 31-08-2022 02:52PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548270#Comment_119548270

An increase in lending is usually the sign of a buoyant economy.

I note the rate of inflation in Ireland has dropped.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0831/1319788-euro-zone-inflation/

Pussyhands · 31-08-2022 02:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548303#Comment_119548303

You do know I'm referring to linkedfinance which is peer to peer lending and typically there was maybe 1 or 2 a month pre covid? Increased activity on linkedfinance, especially with so many seeking the loan for working capital, shows a sign that banks are not lending to them like they were.

Darth Putin · 31-08-2022 02:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548112#Comment_119548112

We (Ireland) actually can live without Russian energy

Once again there’s 15 years of gas around Sligo alone and probably as much offshore

That’s 2-3 decades of not be sending billions to other countries and transition to complete independence by investing in solving energy storage issues that current wind has and/or building nuclear

Jonnyc135 · 31-08-2022 02:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119546933#Comment_119546933

Not all of us on here are Pro Russian Doom mongers, I personally think economically the west's reliance on debt low interest rates and throwing QE at asset prices is their own downfall. The jig is up, central bankers have got it wrong the just bailed their buddies out, bubbled up asset prices and due to this have created serious wealth gaps and devides which have been the seeds to the Far Right movements and conspiracy theorists we are seeing today.

They created all this since the mid 80s, not putin.

Putin is still a bad person in my eyes and I do not support him but bubbling up asset prices, globalisation and neglecting the common working class is what has gotten us into this mess.

BASHIR · 31-08-2022 03:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548349#Comment_119548349

Which would involve fracking?

A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Comments