Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

The bubble is global, a small open economy should be OK then

The issue is that people 2/3's of the way up the ladder are also struggling to buy, it's not just the bottom. And you could hardly label it altruistic but there's a pretty sizeable percentage of people there who are in a position to absorb cost of living increases while also taking advantage of reduced property costs. Hence the desire for prices to fall.

In terms of voting - you have this huge cohort of people 20s-40s who are royally pissed off. Who will likely turn out in record numbers to vote. And, whether through naivety, anger or anything else you can label it, they will vote SF because, to their mind, why on earth would they vote for the current incumbents?

I sit in this cohort and will not personally vote for SF, as I do not believe they will improve things, but I can't blame others for voting them in.

With the Gas situation in Europe even if a bag recession occurs gas prices will not retreat anywhere back to where they were early 2021 when fertilizer prices were 200 euro a ton. As regards food price it lags by at least 10 months which is the growing period realistically before harvesting of the crop where the input prices are then passed on. so if gas fell from 300 euro per cubic meter back down to 5 euro a cubic meter then it would still take a year before food price would see it.

Maybe not but you can be guaranteed there is now a real concerted level of concentration going into other sources of energy I see this in teh sector I work in hopefully making our reliance on gas a thing of the pass it will take time do

I agree. This is entirely possible and is not some Lotto win type of scenario. Plenty of people were just aged appropriately to buy cheap houses in 2012-2015. A lot of people working in professional services and IT did just fine during the grim years, yes bonuses and pay rises were rear but the fall in house prices was so much that it didn’t matter.

Totally anecdotal, but a friend of my wife's is looking for a house at the moment. He keeps being outbid and has seen the same guy at all the viewings, so reckons they're in the same boat. Gets chatting to him, "how awful it is to be outbid all the time", etc. The guy says, oh that's me. He works for a Chinese investment fund and his mandate is to buy properties regardless of cost.

Obviously could be bullshit, but if not it's fairly depressing and you'd wonder how widespread it could be.

The shop assistant would probably loose his/her job in your scenario…300k people no longer spending would kill a lot of small businesses such as shops/bars/restaurants.

They would just up it 2500 a month and there would be a worse crisis than already exists. No landlord would opt for 1166 a month because if rent caps were reintroduced they would be screwed and the chances of that happening would be high once people see the impact of SF policies and vote in a different crowd.

The suggestion doesn’t address the issue which is a lack of supply. In fact it would reduce supply as what your suggesting lowers the yield. And no landlord would buy a house to rent because the return would be less than 3% PA and more importantly the resale value would be frozen as a result