Russia - threadbanned users in OP

How many experts of note cropped up during Covid, experts that knew far more about virology than the armchair bod on the street, who were forecasting either the Black Death or a mere sniffle? No doubt there are other military experts that will say damn near the complete opposite to him. The main difference as far as the same bod on the street goes is who do we want to believe going in.

IMHO he's smoking crack if he thinks the Russians will give up Crimea anytime soon, diplomatically or no. Not without regime change and a shift in the average Russian's mindset that sees Crimea more than anywhere as "their land" and has been egged on over the last decade and more to see it as such by the same regime. Driven back to the pre invasion borders is a very long shot too. Not with what Ukraine has at her disposal now. Plus the Russians have been busy with their rabid imperialism consolidating and russifying Donbas, installing their own people, supporting Donbas separatists and killing, "relocating" and driving out Ukrainian nationalists, many of whom understandably fled their murderous march.

The Russian military has been shown to be a joke in many ways. Claiming their utter failure to take Kyiv as some sort of tactical feint is of the highest quality copium for their supporters. Hell, on twitter I have noticed their fans have now gone from claiming the Ukrainian military are a joke that will fall in days/months to now saying they were the best army in Europe because of NATO's support. More copium. If there were a few battalions of Brits or French in country the Russians would very quickly know about it.

The other card they can play is to call a "ceasefire" when they see things going more badly for them and using it to consolidate further. Zelensky won't want that and I wouldn't either, but the economics and optics of his support among the allies could well mean he'll have to suck it up at least temporarily.

Keeping the Russians bogged down along the current frontline, driving the Russians back from Kherson and over the river, even getting close to Mariupol I can certainly see and Russia has zero chance of taking, never mind keeping much more than they have taken so far. Russians and their sympathisers who reckon they'll eventually take half of Ukraine are smoking even more craic with high power blotter acid chasers.

Again in my humble and I've reckoned this from very early on is that Russia will take and keep a large chunk of Donbas. A Donbas that will be a nightmare for them and the inhabitants for years. The Ulster Troubles on steroids and it'll bleed Russia badly. And though it's a bitter pill to swallow for Ukraine and the world who supports them I'd currently say leave them to it. If Ukraine were magically handed those areas of the Donbas back tomorrow they in turn would be dealing with Russian separatist insurgency for years too. Look at the clusterfúck it's been for them and the inhabitants of Donbas over the last decade when they did control it and direct Russain support was more nudge nudge wink wink.

A randomer on youtube who supports Ukraine and has done since the get go and has been on the ground since the get go too and who has no love for the Russians or what they've done and continue to do. One reason why his request to the Russians to report from their side was flatly turned down. Well they only want mouthpieces for their bullshít. Any journalists I've seen reporting from their side are farcically obvious as far as their allegiances go. Now we have seen similar with some western reporting of course, but the major difference is that we've also seen reporting of Ukrainian screwups and dodgy stuff. Never mind that pretty much any journalist can show up to Ukraine and be let in to report. I've not yet seen any indpendent western journalist get access to the Russian side.

Irrelevant to the discussion. War's is more straightforward than virology and this guy really is an expert at war.

This is the same guy who claimed back in March that Russia was ten days away from running out of military resources? Some "expert at war". He's changed his tune more often than a coked up DJ. Remember how many claimed similar? And how many including on this thread were ready to believe them? When it was so obviously utter bollocks. Again it's down to who we want to believe.

I've repeatedly said Russia lost this war the second they crossed the border. They completely screwed up the run to Kyiv and the northern attacks generally. They underestimated Ukrainian resolve and feelings and fighting capability and the response of the western allies. They(and most everyone else) overestimated their troops and ability to supply them. And yep their Black Sea fleet is a joke. Their airforce incredibly lacklustre.

So they ran away from the north and Kyiv and concentrated in Donbas and the south where they had more support among locals and had been directly fighting there since 2014 and have more direct supply lines. They took and are so far holding the landbridge to Crimea. They have Donbas for all the good it'll do them long term and they're picking away extremely slowly along the front, but they are picking away. How much of the same front have Ukraine taken back. Bits and bobs too? This is long haul dogged stuff here. Russia's blitzkreig fell on its arse, so it's down to throwing lumps of metal at Ukrainian positions and it doesn't look like they're running out of the "dumb" artillery stuff any time yet.

Unless something changes radically like western allies giving more than they have been by way of long range stuff to hit them hard behind the lines and cut off their supply it's going to remain dogged back and forth slugging on the ground.