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Hi all, please see this major site announcement: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058427594/boards-ie-2026

A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,665 ✭✭✭brickster69


    How is winning being sat in trenches with your hands over your head hoping one of those 50K shells a day being launched does not land next to you.

    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    This is about energy and its effects on the European economy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,146 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    My guess is a new form of 'Democracy' will be formed. A totalitarianism democracy that involves debt forgiveness, basic income payments, central bank digital currencies and food production control. This will be all needed in order to save our planet and as we are selfish human beings who need to be controlled in order to do the right thing in order to save ourselves. All out of the playbook as written by the WEF.

    And by me even mentioning this I am a right wing extremist and a conspiracy theorist.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Wow. Our closest neighbour facing 18% inflation.

    Why wouldn't we face the same? Does the economy of Britain run on different stuff to us?

    IMG_20220822_174014.jpg




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,454 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Nah, multiple polls have consistently shown support for UK to remain...

    Nah, multiple polls have consistently shown Hillary will be the president...

    Yeah, them polls...



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,454 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Would you not consider SA as aggressive hostile regime? Probably not since you are not from Yemen. As far as I remember we rely on many hostile aggressive regimes on energy imports like SA, Iran, Syria, Venezuela or outright autocratic dictatorships like in most of the Arab countries.

    This "but Putin..." really gets old. Sanctions backfired spectacularly and hurt us more than it hurt Russia already and the pain will become even worse for us very soon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,390 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Polls have margins of error, depending on quality. Sometimes that will be a few percent, so when you have an issue that is very 50/50 then there can be results on either side. There are many factors that can affect result including sample size, how it was conducted, where it was conducted, etc. There's a whole science behind it.

    However you have multiple polls consistently showing e.g. 80%+ in favor of something, then you can be pretty sure.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭Deub


    How do you know sanctions hurts us more than Russians?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,390 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    There are a lot of conflicts in the world. Fringe individuals are only concerned about a very selective group of conflicts. They don't give a damn what's happening in e.g. Ethiopia. If victims in the conflict aren't inflicted by Western or a Western-aligned country, they don't give a toss about them. It's been difficult for them to blame the current invasion of Ukraine by Russia on the West, not for lack of trying, but the potential for a recession gives them a new angle to attack "the West" with. The sanctions are to blame! (Except that Putin's decision to invade Ukraine is to blame)

    As for the sanctions against Russia, a majority support them. Are they hurting Russia? sure, although not as much as we'd like. Are we hurting? Yup, but cutting off a key energy supplier was always going to be painful, whether we did it in the past or now. Has to be done though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,452 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    Fair point but I really would have thought the media would give a less biased opinion on things. Or a more balanced view.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,452 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    I assume as u said he was trying to say that people will have more money at their disposal to help them if and when things get tight. But yes money in the bank has no relevance as an indicator of a looming recession. It will be interesting to see what does happen. But I know lots of people my age (late 30s) have very little idea what is going on with things at the moment. So IF things do start to get hairy it will be quite a shock to the system.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 29,979 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    It's very easy to be supportive (or against) something when the consequences/impact are an abstract thing that don't affect you.

    But once the weather gets colder and the evenings longer and people start seeing the real impact of these largely pointless sanctions (pointless because Putin and his supporters are billionaires insulated from the effects and don't care about the impact to the ordinary Russian who, like their military, are deemed expendable) on their electricity and gas bills, that same support will fall off rapidly.

    Putin and co know this of course. They just have to wait it out until the domestic population of Germany and elsewhere demand something be done. That's when Zelenskyy will be told to get to the table and hammer out an agreement.

    Realpolitik will always trump ideology or feelz.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    Ask the people in winter would they be in favour of removing sanctions on energy and that poll will be a resounding YES.

    If you disagree I have a boat to sell you.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    Again we didn't sanction western countries for the illegal war on Iraq. We could of left sanctions off energy. Are you saying Ukrianinans are more important then Iraqi's?

    We didn't sanction SA for its war against Yeman.

    Europe shot its load early on and played all their cards in one hand.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 888 ✭✭✭bb12


    when people are cold and hungry all social conventions go out the window and we become more in touch with our primal instincts to survive...ever since the french revolution where heads were being lopped off left, right and centre, every government has known to keep the people fed, watered and warm...will be intriguing to watch how they turn this around this winter...as said earlier, zelensky will probably be pulled up by his boot straps and told to get to the negotiating table



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,101 ✭✭✭accensi0n


    Since 1800, can you provide some examples of government efforts to keep people warm despite there being some other significant negative?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Until the last 30 years and more so in the last 10, food security and Energy security have completely dropped off the radar as good things, often viewed by Govt and society as awful things provided for by awful people.


    That's not going to work out well.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,568 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    Exactly- farmers, energy companies etc treated like adolf hitlers by our supposed moral superiors and the Greta loving cheerleaders - but guess what we all need food and energy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭Pussyhands




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,442 ✭✭✭bad2thebone


    So we're between a rock and a hard place again. We came out of the last one,so I suppose it's just adapting to the status quo lol

    This must be my fourth recession as an adult lol Just when I'm doing well and content the whole thing goes belly up lol sure we'll survive it's not the worst thing that could happen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    German and French year ahead megawatt hr price hitting 7 and 8 hundred.


    Dutch month ahead hitting 270.



    The Dutch level is frankly nuts, the German and French levels are beyond reality.


    50 to 60 an hour has been a multi year norm.


    The Belgian PM talking about 10 hard winters ahead for Europe.


    There is no political leadership in Western Europe willing to deal with this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,665 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Euro countries and Turkey stocking up on Russian oil. Looks like Turkey is stocking up also to start it's new commodity reselling business also.

    Imagine putting a ban on oil and everyone just buys the same stuff at a premium from someone else instead. It just makes all those hundreds of products that is made from oil more expensive at the end of the day.

    As gas prices keep rising it is almost certain that countries start burning oil for energy, then global demand shoots up and off goes the price of oil.Then because everyone is burning oil to stay warm there is shortages of things like diesel and a mad scramble takes place so trucks keep on the road.

    No doubt then Russia will announce they have to cut production of oil by half because some pumping station in Siberia are waiting in limbo to receive a turbine or something, then the price trebles and he sells 50% less for 3 times more. Deja Vu


    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,665 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Dollar hits 20 year high 99 cents to 1 Euro

    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,990 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Very good for Irish MNC jobs. Payrises too which will fuel inflation.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    All the MNCs are looking at cutting costs wherever they can now. It's not like all staff are paid from the US in dollars.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,990 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    You cut tech jobs from the most expensive location which is the USA. In relative terms Irish labour is getting cheaper. A strong dollar is good for keeping MNC jobs here.

    Also great for US tourists.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 21,919 Mod ✭✭✭✭helimachoptor


    Good for my company in the short term at least



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    That would be the case if all money was generated in the USA.

    Not all money is generated in the US.

    If you listen to earnings you'll hear companies mention how the exchange rates are impacting them. Because all earnings are given in USD, income from non US regions is lowering in value in relative terms. So why would they then give pay increases when the income they generate is losing value relatively?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,665 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Great isn't it. Euro drops 1% and energy prices raise 25% in a week which in turn leads to

    italy.jpg


    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



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