Biden/Harris Presidency Discussion Thread

Manic Moran · 13-02-2022 5:19am

The Washington Post pulled an FOIA request for the Army's after-action review of the Afghanistan withdrawal. It's 2,000 pages long, I can't seem to find a link to it if they published it in the entirety.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/08/afghanistan-evacuation-investigation/

Here's CNN's take.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2022/02/13/afghanistan-probe-biden-response-nr-brown-ftr-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/this-week-in-politics/

Dyr · 13-02-2022 11:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118288368#Comment_118288368

I don't think you were aware of it all, and you now look a bit silly. As people usually do when they refuse to acknowledge they were wrong but immediately move on with "the point remains"

eire4 · 14-02-2022 7:53am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118627002#Comment_118627002

I am well aware of the fact that most spending on public education in the US comes out of local taxes. It varies from state to state of course as well how much of educational budgets are from local property taxes but nonetheless the majority does indeed come out of the local property taxes as opposed to the federal kitty.

If you find the fact that the US is quite happy to spend vast sums of money on their war machine as opposed to spending some more money on their own peoples welfare silly then I guess we will have to disagree on that one. The original Build Back Better plan at 3.5t would have been about 250 times less spending then the military budget if it stayed the same for the next ten years which is far from certain given its increases lately. That never got off the ground. Then the push was for 1.75t for Build Back Better in other words 500 times less spending and that failed. As I said previously that is very telling. As the military budget passed and passes each year with no real issues at all which given the hyper partisanship in the US congress now is very instructive as well. Clearly they care more about their war machine then they do the welfare of their own people otherwise that would not be the case.

Nody · 25-02-2022 4:32pm

Biden has nominated Ketanji Brown Jackson for the Supreme court.

Jackson, 51, currently sits on DC's federal appellate court and had been considered the front-runner for the vacancy since Justice Stephen Breyer announced his retirement.

She received and accepted Biden's offer in a call Thursday night, a source familiar with the decision told CNN.

Above taken from here.

Manic Moran · 01-03-2022 9:34pm

Primaries occurring today in Texas. A couple of congressional seats and state level offices including Governor and Attorney General.

After a brief gander at the candidates, I despair. Half the Republicans are fawning over Trump and Cruz, the rest aren't much better, whilst half the Democrats are taking positions not out of place in San Francisco or New York, the rest aren't much better.

Worse, I had to pick a party ballot and only vote in that side's primary, which was annoying since my preferences split the parties. Hopefully the right people make it to the general.

Brussels Sprout · 02-03-2022 1:49pm

Didn't realise the primaries were starting already. Given that there are going to be even less competitive districts in this year's general election these are the real elections for almost all of the house seats.

Quin_Dub · 02-03-2022 4:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118716142#Comment_118716142

Worse, I had to pick a party ballot and only vote in that side's primary, which was annoying since my preferences split the parties. Hopefully the right people make it to the general.

That's something I really don't understand about the system in the US (I know some States are different).

All these rules just further entrench the two party system and drive more and more polarisation.

Like you say , you might have an openness for a Democrat for Governor but a Republican for your congressional district or whatever , but you can only participate in one side or the other.

So the candidates that get through the primaries are less likely to appeal to voters on the "other" side because the other side haven't had any say in their selection.

Nody · 02-03-2022 4:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118720620#Comment_118720620

But it ensures that there's not a viable third party on the ballot that can actually compete; i.e. both parties are happy enough to compete but keep any other competitors out at all cost basically. It's same with the presidential debates which is run by a company owned by the Dems and Reps to ensure no viable third party candidate risks getting in and showing their candidates up basically.

Manic Moran · 02-03-2022 5:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118720620#Comment_118720620

That's about the size of it. All the Republicans get together, and pick the most Republican Republican they can get, and all the Democrats get together and pick the most Democratic Democrat they can get, and put them forward on the ballot. And those of us in the middle are going "Hang on a second..."

One of the better options is something like the "Top Two" primary system such as used in Washington or California, which is basically an open election to narrow down the field with a run-off a few months later. However, the politicians hate it. When California voted on Prop 14 back in 2010 asking whether or not to implement "top two", every single registered party in the State opposed it. The citizens passed it anyway.

Unfortunately, a lot of States do not have 'citizen initiatives' as an option in their system, and are purely at the discretion of the politicians currently in office who have an interest in maintaining the system which got them there in the first place.

Brussels Sprout · 02-03-2022 5:31pm

Alaska will have an interesting system this year as well for their Senate election:

Following voter approval of Ballot Measure 2 during the 2020 elections in Alaska, this will be the first U.S. Senate election in Alaska held under a new election process. All candidates will run in a nonpartisan blanket primary on August 16, 2022,[1] from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election. Voters will then utilize ranked voting during the general election.

link

serfboard · 02-03-2022 6:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118721007#Comment_118721007

Thanks for posting that - very interesting.

Hopefully they'll go on to use Ranked Choice voting instead of the awful First Past The Post in more elections in the US. It resulted in a dramatic result in Maine's 2nd Congressional District in 2018, when the Republican incumbent lost to a Democrat challenger. The Republican "became the first incumbent to lose the 2nd Congressional District since 1916".

The outgoing Republican Governor, was magnanimous in the defeat for his party: "Gov. Paul LePage, as one of his last acts in office, reluctantly initialed the certificate of election for Golden, adding the words "stolen election" to it to express his personal dislike of ranked-choice voting."

Manic Moran · 02-03-2022 6:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118721007#Comment_118721007

Good for them. (And Maine). I note it's listed as a "Ballot Initiative", it seems like it also was put on there by collection of signatures?

AMKC · 02-03-2022 11:18pm

Jeez that is a fecked up voting system ye have in the US. Would 3 or 4 parties really be too much for the average American?

The houses are certainly big enough for 4 or more party's to sit in. Maybe it's time the American people started to protest about this and change it.

Also ,

I have to say I don't care what people think of Joe Biden I think he is one cool dude and he was looking great today with his sunglasses on out in the sun. I think the presidency is good for him and he looks healthier than he has ever been

Brussels Sprout · 03-03-2022 11:08am

Jeez that is a fecked up voting system ye have in the US. Would 3 or 4 parties really be too much for the average American?

No, but it's too much for the main two parties who would lose out if the status quo were to change. We saw the same thing in the UK in 2011 when both Labour and the Tories campaigned against moving away from FPTP.

Sam Russell · 03-03-2022 11:22am

The vote in the UK was a move from FPTP to another poor system - 'The Alternative Vote' which was poorly explained and deliberately confusing. It was simple for those opposing to say 'If you do not know - then vote NO'.

The vote should have been a vote to move from the existing system to another more representative system - the actual system to be subject to another vote'. A bit like the Brexit vote - the voters knew what voting Remain meant (status quo), but voting Leave was subject to lies and confusion - 'Brexit means Brexit' - or whatever you are having yourself.

Rjd2 · 03-03-2022 7:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118716142#Comment_118716142

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/us/politics/border-grievance-politics.html

Did you read that article , might be of interest to you.

So its Abbot v Beto for governor.

Its very unlikely that Abbot loses as he is quite popular in Texas as he has always cruised to victory , but its going to be interesting to see how Beto does. Ideally he won't want to lose by double digits and improve turnout in other races for Dems.

I wonder though if its a blowout what next for Beto? He did ok v Cruz although still lost, ran a horrific presidential campaign and now facing a pretty difficult assignment v Abbot.

I know some have said rematch v Cruz in 2024, but I think the Dems will say "enough is enough" if its a blowout in November.

Quin_Dub · 04-03-2022 1:00pm

Not so sure about Abbott being a guaranteed winner in Texas anymore.

It's still his race to lose without doubt , but after the shambles last winter and again this winter (on a smaller scale) there's a definite opportunity to "get at him" as it were.

Rjd2 · 04-03-2022 7:54pm

We shall see!

I think the Dems will be paying defense this time around so while they would love to knock of Abbot and obviously RDS they know in the current environment they need to be realistic and focus on much more winnable races.

When Beto lost to Cruz in 2018 their was those on the left who felt the money that went into that race could have been spent elsewhere on much more winnable elections also.

Manic does Abbot win easily,,curious to know your opinion.

TomOnBoard · 05-03-2022 11:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118730805#Comment_118730805

Abbot will beat Beto by 6-9% in TX. It doesn't matter that Abbott's an appalling Taliban leader: the movements of Hispanic / Rio Grande Valley voters towards the GOP are harbingers of carnage in areas considered as marginal by the Dems up to now!

The Beto for Governor campaign is a total waste of his potential.

AbusesToilets · 06-03-2022 12:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118738556#Comment_118738556

What potential? Calling him an empty shirt is being generous.

TomOnBoard · 06-03-2022 12:56am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118738988#Comment_118738988

Ah, FFS! Jaysus, so yer 'someone posted a lib+ comment & my innate protection of Democracy must kick in!' kinda commentator!

Just for info., given that you've been AWOL for months, what is the trip-wire that was triggered that gave us the pleasure of your company?

Manic Moran · 06-03-2022 1:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118733150#Comment_118733150

This is still Republican territory, the best chance to unseat Abbott (Or more importantly, IMO, Paxton) was in the primaries. I'll be very surprised if O' Rourke can make up the 9% difference in current polling. As of about two weeks ago, independents were leaning 2:1 in favour of Abbott. Look at the practical realities, for example: Abbott is anti-abortion, a not particularly uncommon viewpoint in Texas. He's also putting a lot of state effort into border security, again, not a uncommonly supported position in Texas. Beto is viewed as anti-gun. In Texas. That's not going to go well. His web page has nothing about border security, but a lot about immigration.

For all the demonization of Abbott, and don't get me wrong, he is decidedly conservative, he is no Ted Cruz, and Texas has been doing quite well under his governorship. It's one of the few States to have fully recovered economically from COVID, for example, in addition to having an economic growth rate higher than the national average and the highest net migrant growth (shown by being the only State to get two new congressional seats this census). Put simply, whilst one may certainly find fault with some specific policies from your own perspective (eg transgender issues, abortion), those are not overwhelming majority concerns for the populace at large and Abbott hasn't really done anything to earn the disapproval of most voters. Texas is the State in the country which a resident is least likely to leave, so the governorship is doing something right.

The issue of Tejanos voting Republican has been noted for a few years, there's one notable exception: Texas 28th which might be particularly interesting. Henry Cuellar is facing a stiff challenge from Jessica Cisneros. Cuellar is one of the more centrist Democrats, a Tejano. He would likely re-elected in November against a Republican, but at the primary level, Ms Cisneros is more progressive (AOC has stumped for her). It's going to a run-off, Cuellar got more votes in the Primary but fell a touch shy of getting the seat completely. The FBI raid on his home and office (Something to do with Azerbaijan, but Cuellar himself hasn't been accused of any wrongdoing) just before the election may not have helped him. However, I wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of folks who voted in the Republican primary might vote for him in the run-off in May.

AbusesToilets · 06-03-2022 1:30am

AbusesToilets · 06-03-2022 1:31am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118739018#Comment_118739018

Not quite sure what you're on about there in your 2nd paragraph, but i'm fairly consistent in my opinions. O'Rourke remains the same vacuous opportunist he's been for the last decade. Devoid of ideas, latching onto whatever crisis is afoot to try and glean some relevancy. The fact he was beaten so handily by Cruz, who is one of the most despised politicians in the country, speaks to that.

Brian? · 06-03-2022 8:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118739148#Comment_118739148

That’s a pretty blinkered view. He was beaten by a Republican in Texas. He made a pretty decent showing.

AbusesToilets · 06-03-2022 2:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118739435#Comment_118739435

Texas is moving towards a 50/50 split at the state level, it's not that extraordinary. Not to belabour the point, but he was against Cruz. The man who toadied up to Trump after he'd insulted his wife nationally. Who subsequently fled to Mexico when things got tough at home.

Do you view him as a good candidate? I find him another in a long line of bland, pointless faces that infest the Democrats. No vision or ideas beyond empty blanditudes. He's also just a bad politician. Running in Texas and doubling down on the idea of gun seizure is brain dead.

Brian? · 06-03-2022 4:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118740677#Comment_118740677

Cruz does great in Texas. Why? I have no idea, he’s a slug. But Beto did well against a Texas Republican.

I think Beto is bland too.

Quin_Dub · 07-03-2022 12:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118739120#Comment_118739120

I'd definitely agree that targeting Paxton and indeed Dan Patrick for Lt Gov is probably more beneficial and achieveable.

Paxton is rotten to the core and Patrick is more than a little "off" , but would there be candidates of sufficient heft to want to challenge for those positions?

Manic Moran · 07-03-2022 3:37pm

No. Unless Paxton gets convicted of some crime (there always seem to be allegations and investigations about him), I don't see him losing. That said, it won't be a cruise: He only got 42% of the primary vote, and he now moves to a run-off against Bush.

Brussels Sprout · 22-08-2022 2:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118721007#Comment_118721007

Just an update on this. They ran the special election primary in June and the top 4 (including Sarah Palin) made it through to the Special General election. Weirdly enough the third placed candidate then dropped out of the race but the timing of it meant that the 5th place candidate was not promoted to the ticket. The upshot was that last Tuesday they had the special election with just 3 candidates to choose from for the Ranked Choice Voting: 2 Republicans (Palin and Begic) and 1 Democrat. There is a large postal vote component so they're only 82% into counting the first preferences so far. They won't look at the second preferences until the first round is complete. Here is how it currently looks though:

Whichever of the two Republicans comes last - it is expected that they should transfer enough to the other that they will pass out Peltola and win. However there is no guarantee of this, especially as currently looks likely if Begich is the one to be eliminated. Palin is a polarising figure and the campaigning between herself and Begich was nasty. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that Begich's voters either chose not to rank anyone else or even ranked Peltola in second.

We should find out the final results by the 1st of September. If Palin loses then the Ranked Choice Voting will already have made an impact.

Whoever loses won't have to wait too long for another opportunity. That's because the open primary for the regular election was held on the same day as the special election (last week). The three candidates above all finished in the top 4 and advance to the General election in November along with another Republican candidate (who had finished 5th in the Special election primary back in June).

Biden/Harris Presidency Discussion Thread

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