Biden/Harris Presidency Discussion Thread

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117961629#Comment_117961629

Well yeah that’s a fair point that independents aren’t shy about naming their price to get support but the Americans in fairness go big style on this and makes you marvel at how they can say some of the stuff they do in relation to democracy with a straight face.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117962868#Comment_117962868

It's literally the Democrats fault that the filibuster is in place. They have the power to eliminate it.

Timely opinion piece today.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/opinion/majority-democrats-republicans-senate.html

Interestingly, Lodge did not blame the minority in the Senate for obstruction. Instead, he blamed the majority for allowing it to happen in the first place. “If the rules permit them to obstruct, they are lawfully entitled to use those rules in order to stop a measure which they deem injurious,” Lodge wrote. “The blame for obstruction rests with the majority, and if there is obstruction it is because the majority permits it.”

BobHopeless

It's just weak governance from the president. A strong leader would get things done but he's not respected enough. He couldn't sell it.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117963013#Comment_117963013

That would certainly explain Trumps inability to pass any meaningful legislation when he controlled both houses as well - Other than the disastrous Tax cuts.

If it were true.

The reality is that the leaders of the two houses have far more influence over the passing of legislation than the President.

Pelosi and Schumer are the ones that aren't necessarily "cracking the whip" hard enough to push things through.

Timberrrrrrrr

It would seem that Afghanistan is already slipping from peoples minds as Bidens approval ratings start to head back up.

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/30/1041602893/bidens-approval-rating-recovers-some-from-last-months-low-an-npr-poll-finds?t=1633115985447

"Last month, just 43% of survey respondents approved of how he was doing his job and a majority — 51% — disapproved. Since then, Biden has gained back some of that, drawing to about even, with 45% approving and 46% disapproving."

TomOnBoard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117963184#Comment_117963184

If fault lies with leadership regarding progress on the Biden agenda, I certainly see some fault on Schumer's part, although I will acknowledge that he is facing a Mitch/GQP brick wall of wanton obstruction. I see Pelosi as continuing to play a sound leadership role given her fractious House makeup. As for Biden, he is totally hamstrung by a scorched earth GQP animosity in both houses, so he can only do what he can within existing powers.

There's a simple solution to all this for the Dems: Win more seats in 2022!

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117964866#Comment_117964866

There's a simple solution to all this for the Dems: Win more seats in 2022!

Or blow up the filibuster!!

Timberrrrrrrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117967286#Comment_117967286

If the Dems don't finally get their finger out and do this then they deserve everything they get when they lose, its a ridiculous thing to hold onto and needs to be deleted from politics once and for all.

TomOnBoard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117967286#Comment_117967286

That's not possible when they hold only 48 seats willing to do so.

pixelburp

Re the mid terms, is there any kind of soft indication it's the GOP's to lose? Or are we just assuming the invariable seesaw of US politics? Isn't there a small chance that if the big infrastructure bill passes and vaccination goes well, the administration gets a thumbs up?

AbusesToilets

Bearing in mind that the State level republicans have been busy passing every anti democratic measure they can think of, the Dems are likely in for a hiding.

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117967624#Comment_117967624

The infrastructure bills will obviously help but democrats need to sell what’s in it and how it will improve their constituents lives but they seem to not be doing that, or at least not like they should be. But there is a trend of the party in power losing seats in mid term elections.

TomOnBoard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117967624#Comment_117967624

IMO, its waay too early to judge. With a fair wind and some positive news in the next year, many aspects of the Biden agenda may get done and ought to be popular with voters. The GQP Big Steal lies will surely anger independents, as will constant McConnell/GQP obstructionism. There will have been a full year post Afghanistan war to be happy about, along with hopefully better Covid protections and results for those who care enough abiut themselves and others to vaccinate. The investigations into the attempted Jan 6 coup ought to be reporting in mid-year which will reflect very badly on the GQP in the minds of centrist/independent voters. The extra trillions pumped into the economy through the 2021 budget reconxiliations and infrastructure projects ought to have worked their way into visible improvements being obvious.

Dem messaging will be critical, and a barrage of Lincoln Project type adverts will be needed to remind voters of how appallingly the GQP has acted into 2021. That's assuming the Dems learn how to make such ads, and not rely on pissed-off Goppers to continue to make such ads for them.

Above all, voting rights will need strengthening and that is clearly a huge fly in the ointment that must be addressed to deal with GQP dis-enfranchisement efforts all over the states. Serious efforts will be needed to sort out the split Senate and Sinema needs to be made irrelevant. The House is currently on a knife-edge and needs to address why it did so poorly in 2020 when Biden did so (relatively) well against Trump.

All in all, I'd see the historic anti-President midterms as a real issue and an overall boogy-man that the Dems need to deal with. That said, it's nowhere near a situation where the GQP have it 'in the bag' already, and its theirs to lose!

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117967624#Comment_117967624

Polling is poor for the Dems. The GOP should take back the house, the concern for them is the senate. They are fav's but some of the people who will win the primary could be poison unless the state is very red. Josh Mandel and JD Vance are running very online campaigns in Ohio while Walker in Georgia will come through a primary but unsure how he does against a Dem. Obviously NH will depend on whether chris sununu runs, if he runs he probably will beat Hasan, but he does not seem keen on it.

Realistically the Dems will be hoping for Trump candidates to battle in the blue/purple states and obviously will need to be sensible with what they try to win.

They are obviously worried about RDS regarding 2024 so would love to knock him off now, but that could be a waste of money and very much like in 2020 when they spend fortunes on some clown who got hammered by Graham and to a lesser extent Beto in 2018 who lost to Cruz. Focus on winnable races and ignore the online mob.

Manic Moran

Interesting (and extremely long) article came out today in Texas Monthly about the demographics of South Texas and why as Democrats start to focus more on constituencies like suburban white America and Arizona Hispanics (And even Dallas Latinos), they're starting to lose the Tejano vote which is likely to slow (if not prevent) the move from Red to Purple. A number of Hispanic-majority counties which voted for Biden and Democrat Representatives in 2020 were much closer they had been in 2016, they may well flip in 2024. It's not just the rural counties, the article calls out the hispanic district of my own city (San Antonio, on the blue side of purple)

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/democrats-losing-texas-latinos-trump/

Politico tapped the issue as well shortly after the election, due to the massive swings in places like Laredo attracting attention, though not to the same level of depth.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/17/trump-latinos-south-texas-tejanos-437027

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986525#Comment_117986525

Yeah this is something that should be bittersweet for the GOP. For so long they seemed to focus to much on older white people which is a dwindling demo while ignoring the fact that many hispanic people very much lean to the right. The penny seems to have dropped recently which I suppose is better late than never.

With the Dems they still do well with certain latino groups, they played a big role in flipping Arizona for Biden but for so many who predicted forever Dem rule with demographic changes they are going to have tone down thosr predictions.

Regarding suburban whites Its complicated. The polling in Texas has been brutal for Biden recently, and someone I respect said this actually be the start of suburban republicans "coming home" now that Trump is not as prominent although obviously he is trying to fix that.

However some of the senate candidates such as Walker, Mandel etc will terrify suburban republicans due to their Trumpiness.

Its going to be interesting to see how this all evolves when it comes to the midterms and when Trump is declared the GOP nominee for 2024.

Brussels Sprout

Wow, I had to go hunting to find this thread. No posts in 4 weeks. Some difference from the last Presidency.

Biden's having a rough few months. Ever since the withdrawal from Afghanistan its been one thing after another. The loss of the Virginia Governor's race last night is just the latest setback.

The Democrats will certainly lose the House in the 2022 elections (and possibly the Senate too) so he basically has a year left of being able to pass any legislation. He really needs to get those Infrastructure bills passed ASAP. Ideally Stephen Breyer would step down too so that they could nominate his replacement while they still have control of The Senate. Another Reconciliation bill then next year and that's pretty much all he can do given the filibuster.

Timberrrrrrrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118112914#Comment_118112914

Before doing any of that they need to find a way to remove the filibuster altogether, it's time for the Dems to play and beat the Republicans at thier own game but alas I don't think they will.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118113033#Comment_118113033

Given what happened the last few times folks removed such limitations just before Congress changed hands, I think at this point many people are extremely nervous about such a concept. It is very short-term thinking.

Rjd2

I'd argue what is happening in NJ is much scarier than Virginia for Biden. Murpy is a much better politician than Tmac, New Jersey is bluer than Virginia while the GOP went all in on Youngkin and did the bare minimum with the nobody running for them in NJ.

Its a grim time for Biden at the moment, economy not the best, small house majority , Mc Connell running interference while Sinema and Manchin are most certainly not helping.

Youngkin managed to juice the rural Trump vote while regaining some of the suburban voters who ran away from Trump, that's a problem for Biden regarding the midterms to say the least.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118113333#Comment_118113333

I work with some people from New Jersey. Was asking about that race and what was causing the unexpectedly large swing toward the Republicans there. The answer apparently is "Taxes". Specifically, Murphy made an ill advised comment:

"if you’re a one-issue voter and tax rate is your issue, we’re probably not your state.”

and it's just being played on loop across the New Jersey media market in Republican attack ads.

TomOnBoard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118112914#Comment_118112914

A big difference in posting frequency on this thread alright, compared to the previous Presidency. Some of that is probably due to the huge delays in accessing/posting here since the changeover, and some due to the lack of daily tweetstorms we had for 4 years. I'll add apathy also- the initial relief from the promise of restoring sanity to US Politics has worn off and many (including me) are seeing a maddening lack of progress from the Biden Presidency and nominally Democratic Congress that is downright depressing. There is a stasis in Washington that is infuriating and soul-destroying, with a Democratic Party that is intent on eating itself alive and a Republican Party that is being steered ever deeper into wild wingnut territory.

Meanwhile, the States appear to be polarising themselves more by the day, with Red States rolling the clock as far back towards Jim Crow as they can get away with, and Blue States growing their own Democratic populations without seeing that, for Presidential and Senate purposes its a wasted effort, as even the most populous States still only get a finite number of Electoral College votes and 2 Senate seats.

Manchinema are Dinos who are in the pockets of Big Coal and Big Pharma respectively, and will do little to deal with the big issue of a tied (and therefore largely impotent) Senate. GOPpers are able to preach out BS non-issues (such as CRT) to further enrage their followers and use 'Communism' of the Left BS to push moderate Reds firmly into GOP hands. The sheer hypocricy of Politicians around Jan 6 is sickening, and the sway of media on the fringes is working like radio-active fallout eating away at facts and allowing opinions and beliefs to hold sway over facts and truth. A public health crisis has been hijacked for dystopian wingnuttery and basic social norms of protecting self and others have been destroyed by a cultish, brain-washed self-destruction based on 'owning' the other side in Politics.

While the VA Gubernarorial election followed a decades old formula of switching to the other Party in the year following a Presidential election (Mc Auliffe winning after Obama 2 being the exception), there must surely be huge concerns around the current Democrats' very loose hold on power to achieve much between this and the 2022 mid-Terms. For sure, there's a steep uphill climb ahead of them.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118113292#Comment_118113292

Not at all. It's a mark of cowardice that they haven't. They were elected with a majority to rule, and they are incapable of seizing that. The Filibuster has no place in a proper democracy. It's a legacy from the Jim Crow era and should be banished to dustpin.

If the Democrats are worried about what might happen if the Republicans have an opportunity to wield power, maybe they ought to get off their asses and deliver on what their constituents want. Electoral reform, healthcare, education, environmental policies.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118113713#Comment_118113713

"A mark of cowardice". By who exactly?

"The Democrats" isn't helpful here. It's like saying "The American People" were responsible for storming the Capitol. It's technically correct but also misleading and not very accurate.

What's the magic incantation that someone can chant to make Joe Manchin vote to kill the filibuster that they're too cowardly to chant?

Manic Moran

and Blue States growing their own Democratic populations without seeing that, for Presidential and Senate purposes its a wasted effort, as even the most populous States still only get a finite number of Electoral College votes and 2 Senate seats.

They may be growing, but they're growing slower than the Republican states, judging by the last census and reallocation of votes. California, NY and IL all lost an EC vote because their populations are simply not growing as fast as Texas, North Carolina or Florida which all gained them.

SupplyandDemandZone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118113376#Comment_118113376

Very ill advised comment that has the hallmarks of Clinton's deplorables moment.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118114100#Comment_118114100

The flip side to that is that those states are often growing as a result of people moving there from blue states. Texas and NC have always been red states as long as I've been watching American politics but they're no longer the deep red states that they once were. George W. Bush won NC by 13% twice but Trump only won it by 1.4% last year. Bush won Texas twice by >20% twice. Trump won it by 5.5% last year.

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117967624#Comment_117967624

Well the trend has been for the party that wins the presidency has a bad midterms after the Presidential election and give the democrats majority is fairly small at single digits, the GOP don’t have an uphill climb to take back the house. There doesn’t need to be a massive swing for it to happen.

Of course there a chance but the infrastructure bills are stalling and so the voters aren’t seeing any benefit from it. I did hear comments from Virginia(before the election) that voters there had voted in Biden and nearly ten months into his term they hadn’t seen much movement on what he said he’d do. Now, that may be unfair but perception is important.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118113911#Comment_118113911

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118113911#Comment_118113911

By Schumer and Biden, to endorse a progressive platform that had widespread support across the country. To refuse to play hardball with Manchin and Sinema, and instead let nakedly corporate interests undermine their legislative agenda.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118118269#Comment_118118269

You neglected to answer the second question. What exactly can Biden and Schumer do to persuade Joe Manchin to dispense with the filibuster?

Playing "hardball" is all good and well when you actually have leverage over someone. When the subject whose vote you need somehow got elected from a state that Biden lost by 39% then it's a different story.