A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Can someone explain to this to me? Claire Byrne just had an leacturer in Economics on with her. He doesn't think we are heading towards a recession as this time we are not reliant on credit, and people have lots of money but is the country not overly reliant on the tech industry this time?

They didn't have to sanction energy. End of. Even in doing so Russia are making more money now with high energy prices so it has had the opposite effect.

Is the best thing to do, to pay down debt (mortgage) at the moment, (if you have spare cash) as opposed to keeping cash in the bank or investing?

We cannot be energy reliant on a hostile nation that will use it as a weapon against us. End of.

Putin literally sees himself as Peter the Great, he'll never stop, as long as he is in power (or one of his inner circle) then this situation isn't going to change.

Something has to give. People without savings will rely on gov handouts. Gov spending will need to increase. And right now the governments immigration policy is adding to that pot.

The country is massively exposed to market energy prices (coal, oil, gas less so) because we import so much energy.

The country is also massively exposed to global MNCs, particularly pharma and tech. Less global demand for computer chips for example could leave us in technical recession alone, depending on the severity of such a demand reduction.

Equally, we could see many SMEs fold in this country but no recession, because so much of our taxes and GDP is from large multinationals. You could see small businesses fold, people go unemployed, but GDP still grows due to American multinationals posting good results on their earnings reports. Another side to leprechaun economics.

Apparently most Irish people do, in May 86% of Irish people polled showed support for the sanctions against Russia (it's averaged around 80% support across Europe)

Even with these insane prices, we still want to stick it to Vlad. Must be all that corporate controlled mainstream media brainwashing us :)

Back to the topic, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this is a catalyst for a recession

Renewables need back up though to account for their intermittent nature - hence our reliance on gas.

If it were as easy as building more wind turbines and we could stop importing gas it would have been done long ago. There are no practical solutions yet to this problem of storage of intermittent energy sources (wind & solar), so even with EU push to build more renewables the bloc will still be reliant on gas & oil from somewhere.

The Germans in particular are very reliant on exclusively gas for use in heavy industry, currently electricity from grid cant do the same job for a lot of applications.

Input costs in the business, building maintenance costs and renovation etc

Up about 35% in last 9 months and rising.

Well there's a sweet spot with inflation, excess taxes will help bring down the national debt but once you go passed that and your welfare bill and consumer spending falls that is when alarms bells go off.

I agree - I think theres a bit of misunderstanding here. Savings (i.e. already been saved/put away) can lessen impact of a recession as you spend them to make up for any shortfalls for example due to higher cost of living or energy prices.

Saving (the act of putting money aside) will take money out of the economy and cool it further. But as cost of living increases you expect less money to be saved.

Renewables are a big part of it, certainly in much of the world the majority electricity producer in years to come.

However, every thing must be in the mix and considered.

It's the absolutism that is a killer.

Fill any airleaks.

The price of gas has become a macarbe fascination.

It's a long time ago since it was just desperately painful and frightening.

It might only settle here at 15%. It'll be grand🤢

Next year is going to be a lean year.