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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Not unlimited no but most estimates put the figure at around 1 million in the entire military

    200,000 are the invading force.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Again intelligence agencies , media Google, US Military , UK Military etc etc are wrong.

    But your are right.

    A force of around 1 million is the overall accepted number.

    Again if you don't believe me you can check yourself what they say . No issues



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 447 ✭✭thereitisgone


    Where do they get there facts from, probably Russian military, and we all know how truthful they are

    i just believe what i see on the ground and the Russians dont have anywhere near your numbers, otherwise they would be winning

    Again i ask you, why is Russia recruiting from prison's and kidnapping people of the street to serve in there army if they have such a big reserve of highly trained soldiers, please answer this now, i have asked a few times

    Really interested in your reply



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,082 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    That doesnt mean they have 1 million combat troops.

    The 200,000 is the spearhead of largely frontline combat troops.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Russian invading force is 200k. This is what you are seeing. The total force is 1,000,000.

    But you know the real story. Thanks for letting me know the truth



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  • Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    lets Pretend for a moment Putin’s been a good sport and not overwhelmed Ukraine… BUT he could.

    These extra troops, do they leave the regions/borders with say China and the large NATO borders?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Do you want the breakdown of the 1 million ?

    The 1 million is the total military. All soldiers, navy, airforce etc

    The facts or the guessing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,082 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Yes they are wrong.

    Show us western numbers of russian operational tanks, jets etc matching actuals.

    Now answer the questions put to you.

    https://cepa.org/a-potemkin-military-russias-over-estimated-legions/

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones



    All I'm doing is answering questions.

    Will you change your mind I do? Or will you just move onto something else?

    You are saying Google, fact based companies, media ,government organisations etc are all wrong but you are right? Just to be clear



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,082 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Do you understand the difference between combat troops and total military manpower?

    Where do you think Russias frontline combat troops are concentrated right now?

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Well I did use both the word troops and the sentence "total military including army, navy and airforce " so yes is the answer. Clearly I know the difference.

    From the Google, US government, Media , fact based companies etc are all wrong but I'm right guy

    I won't be replying to you again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,082 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    You havent answered a single question. You cant even answer the last question directly put to you in this reply because you know if you answer it it cuts the legs put from under your argument.

    Show us where the media figures were correct.

    How exactly do these organisations count the number of operational russian tanks? Do they wander round russian bases? Or are they basing it on the potemkin numbers Russia puts out?

    So dont repeat nonsense that western organisations have established how many operational tanks etc Russia has.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,082 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    And yet again you fail to respond when asked where russias combat troops are concentrated.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,847 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Tones, this is a very informative read if you genuinely believe those Russian troop numbers.

    Russia is all in on a pair of twos.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,400 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Like many before you you are only considering the raw data. Since the start of this war Russian military power has been shown to be deeply flawed.

    Russia would have mobilized by now if it could have. Mobilization is a risk. First the 70 million figure that is 50% of the total Russian population, men women and children. More likely amount of the population that is fit for service is 20-25 million a huge figure still but that would be draining the country of every sort of worker.

    If the Yanks go to war they do not send in conscripts. They send in professional troops. The Russian army is a conscript army. On paper it seems great but in reality it's a logistical nightmare. Look at the writing of the professional paratrooper who wrote in his memoir there is links to it 4-6 pages back.

    No boots rusty guns no sling on the rifle. Training office went missing. Mobilization would be a disaster. You would have former conscripts going into a war with poor training originally now receiving maybe no extra training and up against precision military equipment and what is becoming an experienced Ukrainian army.

    Then you have the logistical issues. Russia has failed to manage to achieve air superiority even over the battlegrounds in Ukraine. These raw troops would have no access to APV's and the much vaunted Russian tank army is decimated.

    This mobilized army might literally have to march to the front. This would be akin to the US calvary against the red Indians or the British Army against the Zulu nation.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,888 ✭✭✭threeball


    They can't supply or feed the muppets they have there already. How do you expect them to handle another 200k. Maybe they'll carve them sticks in the shape of a gun and shout pew pew, pew pew at the Ukrainians.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    That's a great point and we'll written . Our argument is if they have the troops then where are they? And the logistics of full mobilization of conscripts .

    You don't believe that there are any more while I believe that the general accepted figure is accurate and that Putin will send another 100 or 200 thousand in winter. Out of desperation perhaps.

    Sure we will see.

    Neither of us actually know



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,018 ✭✭✭ForestFire


    You'd be surprised how far a pair of 2s could go.......or have we already crossed the river card and now totally isolated from the rest of the pack?! 🫢



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,527 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    General Mark Hertling (former commander of the US Army in Europe) says he's had his suspicions for over a decade that the Russian army was of a very poor calibre. He's basing this on personal experiences too - he visited Russia on three different occasions and was shown around military installations, watched Russian troops training etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,366 ✭✭✭dePeatrick


    Keep in mind too that the US military and others have been exaggerating the might of the Russian army for a long time too. Helps sustain their defence budgets.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,400 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    It's not about writing it's about analysis. Over the last 2-3 pages on this thread you have posted 10+ times and rattled off 15+ question's.

    Tell me this 200k troops that you think he can field. What will they be armed with. Will they have access to APV'S and trucks to get them to the front line.

    Will they all have bullet proof vests like the US and the other western armies provide it's troops. Will they have tanks, artillery, radios ( even the unencrypted ones the Russian army use at present), trained officer's and experienced NCO's.

    Russia has the largest land border of any country. It borders China which it has to be wary of. It's involved in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, the Congo, Moldova as well as Ukraine.

    It's Wagner group was supposed to similar to the US military contractor system. They are probably not as capable as professional soldiers from any Western nation. They are basically enforces for the regime. These are the losses of the Russian army in the last six months from sources on the net

    Personnel – 43750 (+200)

    Tanks – 1876 (+12)

    Armored Fighting Vehicles – 4141 (+15)

    Artillery Systems – 985 (+5)

    Multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) — 261 (+0)

    Means of air defense – 136 (+0)

    Aircraft – 233 (+0)

    Helicopters – 195 (+1)

    Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) operational-tactical level – 787 (+3)

    Cruise Missiles – 187 (+0)

    Ships/Boats – 15 (+0)

    Automotive equipment and tank trucks – 3044 (+5)

    Special Technique – 92 (+1).

    The other problem it's now facing is that any tanks or APV's still at the front are reaching factory overhaul timing and may need to be pulled. Because it used non precision artillery bombardment's to try to bomb Ukraine into submission many of its artillery pieces need barrel changes which they do not have it seems.

    If they send 200 k troops into the Ukraine it's the Zulus against the Redcoats and we know how that ended.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Curious_Case


    Putin is on the back foot now and there will be contingency plans made for all of his LIKELY moves.

    His position will be shaken though, by the level of impunity with which Ukraine can attack Crimea.

    Best scenario in the medium term, and not impossible, is that Putin gets "demoted" and Russia walks away leaving all the humiliation and shame on Putin's doorstep. Maybe he's being left at the helm until the boat is on the rocks?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Yeah but nuclear war chief.

    That’s not good.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,192 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Have you ever noticed that lots of different news websites will all report the same news stories at more or less the same time? Do you think that each of these does independent research to confirm facts and then they all simultaneously reach the same conclusions and then independently report the same story, amazingly, using exactly the same wording and photos?

    I'll let you in on a little secret, only one of them comes up with the story, the rest just cut and paste it. It's the same with stuff like Russian force estimates - and they are only estimates. Probably only one or three security services actually have the resources to come up with the estimates, and most won't make those estimates public. So while you are trying to justify your numbers with a claim that numerous sources back them up, your claim is false - they are just all echoing the one source capable of making the estimates.

    The CIA are prone to exageration, because it serves a purpose of unnerving the US public and politicians and making it easier to get approval for large defence expenditure. This CIA exageration was quite prevalent during the cold war. The Russians also exagerated their numbers as it also served their purposes to appear like a more serious threat and therefor be taken more seriosly.

    Did you know that during the cold war, the official population of Russia was supposedly 225 million, and that Moscow was a city of 5 million? The science fiction author Robert Heinlein actually went on a holiday with his fluent Russian speaking wife to the USSR in 1960 and did some private investigating to try and confirm the nubers and came to the conclusion that Moscow probably only had a population of about 600,000 and that the population was probably a lot less than claimed. He was right.

    "but Soviet military manning and procurement was never as robust as the CIA estimated. The CIA depiction of a Soviet military Goliath with global reach and even control of international terrorism bolstered Reagan’s portrayal of an “evil empire.” CIA publications regularly discussed a “relentless Soviet buildup” and a “disquieting index of Soviet intentions,” which reflected institutional bias and not reality. CIA distortions of military issues also contributed to delays in disarmament negotiation with the Soviet Union" https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/05/25/intelligence-and-ideology-the-exaggeration-of-the-threat/

    Have you heard about the very serious issue of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

    The CIA factbook probably should be taken with several pinches of salt.

    Oh, and this tells you a lot about Russian military might:

    "Vladimir Putin offers one million rubles to Russian mothers with 10 children as the country battles a demographic crisis

    President Vladimir Putin is offering a one-off payment to Russian mothers who have given birth to 10 or more children as a way to address the country's demographic crisis. - August 19, 2022" https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/vladimir-putin-offers-one-million-rubles-to-russian-mothers-with-10-children-as-the-country-battles-a-demographic-crisis/news-story/062f502d80957b7d913a1ecd06df6d32



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,837 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    22 beats AK unsuited more then 50% of the time



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,361 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    The problem is you can only play that hand once, of the outcome is underwhelming, you might have left your self exposed to every state with a Russian gripe and there are lots waiting for their chance



This discussion has been closed.
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