Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

The Student · 19-08-2022 08:28AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119491775#Comment_119491775

Maybe that's what we need to see people emigrate again. But it appears the property crisis is occurring in a lot of countries. The Govt is and has forced alot of whats happening. Due to their own actions they are forcing landlords out of the market by making the environment toxic.

They stopped building social housing, they mismanage the stock of social housing, alot of what has been done is "smoke and mirrors" to shift the blame for their handling of the situation.

I am not political in anyway but I don't see what Sinn Fein can do. A post below from Timing Belt sums it up very well. We don't have an oversupply of properties and no political party no matter what they say will magically produce properties overnight.

19-08-2022 08:59AM

I've never met anyone paying 1000 for a roomshare, nevermind 1200.

Eclectic Econometrics · 19-08-2022 09:35AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119492315#Comment_119492315

I just looked on Daft and they're definitely there, worse even.

https://www.daft.ie/share/7-beech-hill-crescent-donnybrook-dublin-4/4029099

https://www.daft.ie/share/booterstown-ave-booterstown-co-dublin/4028437

https://www.daft.ie/share/31-the-green-hollystown-dublin-15/4028996

Jonnyc135 · 19-08-2022 09:40AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119492315#Comment_119492315

100% you'll pay that for a room share in an apartment or house in the city centre

Villa05 · 19-08-2022 11:05AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119492234#Comment_119492234

When you read between the lines, you understand why those affected would vote for something different

When the cost of social housing can be up to 750,000 per unit, you push up the price in all markets

Say you put 50 social tennants in this accomodation, your actions in pushing up price could put an extra 100 on the list, another 100 on HAP, more on increased rent way above inflation and more priced out of buying completely. Remember the mantra from the celtic tiger, when you price out ftb's, (new entrants) the whole house of cards come crashing down

Governments perceived actions in "solving" the issue is in fact creating doom loop that is growing exponentially. They will not change, they are wedded to this process that will bring down everything.

If you are affected negatively by this process (imo we all are) you either get out or you get them out.

To solve a problem, you first have to stop making it worse. We are where we are!!!!

awec · 19-08-2022 11:15AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119492904#Comment_119492904

Again, your entire premise is based on the idea that things couldn't be worse. I have no idea why you have this in your head.

You must surely see that a vote for SF is not a vote to "stop making things worse", it's a vote to try something different, which might make things better, or it could make things a lot worse. A market collapse for example would be very, very bad for people at the bottom of the ladder (i.e. the SF vote base).

Your notion that the property market is being driven high by the government on purpose and if they just stopped with their policies everything would be grand will either be validated or invalidated fairly quickly. 😊

The Student · 19-08-2022 11:30AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119492904#Comment_119492904

I am trying to not turn this into a political thread. I want to see Ireland succeed but people potentially could vote for parties who might destroy Ireland.

We are a small open economy who need FDI our corporation tax and associated income tax of those working in these corporations is critical to us. If you spook businesses they invest elsewhere so Sinn Fein are saying yes houses for all, higher wages etc but what they don't understand is that all of this has to be paid for. If we were a large country who had resources etc then yes we could dictate the terms of business to any FDI's and they would still come as they need us but we don't.

I am not saying the current govt is doing things right (I am a landlord for the record and a PAYE worker who left school at 16 and has worked ever since while obtaining a degree, masters and qualifying as an accountant) all while working full time. The current Govt has not made the hard decisions when it comes to the property sector.

I understand business and the impact of decisions but what I am fearful of is the damage that populist promises will have on Ireland over the long term. I am old enough to have seen family members leave Ireland in the 1980's because of the situation in Ireland then. I don't want to see it again but I fear if Sinn Fein are elected as some form of punishment for the existing Govt Ireland may be destroyed internationally and we all suffer.

To try bring this back on track yes we need to take a multi faceted approach to this situation but we need to have those in power willing to take the tough decisions and stand by them. We also need the public to play its part too.

Pussyhands · 19-08-2022 11:39AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119488491#Comment_119488491

Nah I don't buy that. Single people have it very tough, unless they want to use a massive deposit.

But couples it's very achievable for them to buy.

I'm on other sites where I'll see things like a couple who both earn 50k+ who are in their early 30's and they'll say they are now starting to save for a deposit on a house or they'll say they have 4k saved. I just think wtf have you been doing all these years? They obviously didn't come out of college and earn 50k right away so what were they spending their wages on exactly?

Pussyhands · 19-08-2022 11:42AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119491747#Comment_119491747

Go look at any queues for rentals and most of them will be foreigners. If there's a recession with big job losses, these foreigners will be out of work and won't be able pay rent so they'll go home.

There's an under supply until there's not. There was an undersupply of smartphone chips...that's flipped and now companies are cancelling their orders because they have too many.

19-08-2022 12:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493090#Comment_119493090

I’m not sure which is worse, the xenophobia or the lack of understanding.

There was an article in most news sources about a house in Dublin where 150 queued to view it, the were reported to be students, working people, families etc, not one reported they were “mainly foreigners”.

Pussyhands · 19-08-2022 12:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493229#Comment_119493229

Considering I have rented out rooms in the place I live as recently as a few months ago, I can tell you that 85% of demand is from foreigners.

Bass Reeves · 19-08-2022 12:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493090#Comment_119493090

Presumption is the mother of all f@@kups. You presume that it will be younger foreign works that will be laid off.

From the history of tech and large companies two things happen. One is they close completely and everyone gets laid off. However if they downsize a plant they generally target older employees with any redundancy package. It's generally more attractive to these employees. They generally try to hold onto younger cheaper staff

Jonnyc135 · 19-08-2022 01:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493383#Comment_119493383

A lot of the young foreign people employed like stated could also be on contact employment and if there new to ireland they will be on probation and will be the cheapest (cost nothing) and first to be dropped before any talk of redundancies even start. Funny enough all the older guys where i work praying for a recession so they can get the bag of money because that what they seen happen in the tiger crash. They don't realise that our direct employee head count is 60% lower than it was back then and the other 40% is contract labour/hire/machines/ drilling. Company since the crash has gone down the route of contractors as opposed to direct employees. They are pulling far higher wages than the employees but they will get the chop first.

Bass Reeves · 19-08-2022 01:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493460#Comment_119493460

Companies will often hold onto contracted employees. They are younger, cheaper, more flexible. It can be harder to get older employees to change habits or work practices.

As well companies tend to contract out complete functions so it can be impossible to reduce these functions completely. I know of one factory that used to have electricians employed directly. They were on shift etc. However a few of the older lads were doing nothing for them. The company bought in a contractor and gave staff the option of moving to them or taking a package. However not that is a contract function that cannot be done without .

I took a redundancy package off a company 3+ years ago. They left 5-8% of there staff go. I was one of the youngest to go and I was nearly 57 at the time.

They ceased no contracts just reduced directly employed headcount

Jonnyc135 · 19-08-2022 01:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493702#Comment_119493702

Nearly all the people who work in tech sector in Dublin are young people. Contractor as a project manager on 150000 grand working for a multinational for example will get chopped straight away. They are definitely not cheaper and if the dark days come they will be chopped and some employees that will be 'lucky to still have a job' will have to do the job. This will be the case for any multinational American company that has no union.

19-08-2022 02:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493272#Comment_119493272

In fairness I'd say that's somewhat biased, in the same way Daft's numbers on rentals aren't accurate at all. Irish people are far more likely to roomshare through people they know than foreigners, which never hits a daft rental ad. So if you're putting up a roomshare ad online I'd bet you'll get a disproportionate amount of foreign interest as locals will be trying to find a room through their mates firstly.

Timing belt · 19-08-2022 02:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493758#Comment_119493758

Contractors will always be the first to go when cutting costs unless they are working on a critical project. That is why they on the books as contractors and not permanent staff. And as you say they then ask permanent employees to try and take on the important workload and shelf projects.

Pussyhands · 19-08-2022 03:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493830#Comment_119493830

Foreigners do the same. A lot of Brazilians for example source accommodation through other Brazilians and Brazilian facebook groups.

Bass Reeves · 19-08-2022 03:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493758#Comment_119493758

Are they directly contracted into the company or are they subcontracted in by another company.

timmyntc · 19-08-2022 04:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119494427#Comment_119494427

It doesnt matter in the end - in both cases contractors (staff or services) are first to be cut, because its easy to do so.

While most solo contractors tend to be older, contract/service companies who have their own staff tend to have younger folks employed. So if the work dries up these could still be some of the first to go.

In the case of any slowdown there will absolutely be demand reduction for new homes from all those younger staff being laid off.

Villa05 · 19-08-2022 04:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119492952#Comment_119492952

There is a party in government that knows how to get houses built, there is another with a strong green agenda. We have umpteen empties that could save us significantly on carbon emissions. Between the 2 of them could they bang heads together and do something

You think the ladder is tough, what do you think of the rental snake.

If we/you/ are so concerned about the economy, why is it so difficult to build a few homes for the people that drive it and generate those taxes the government are squandering

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119488491#Comment_119488491

awec · 19-08-2022 05:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119494694#Comment_119494694

Why is it difficult to build homes? It's as if you have been living under a rock for the past 5 years?

We are building homes. We are building loads of them. It's hard to drive anywhere in any urban area without passing multiple developments. We have a finite amount of labour and a finite amount of materials, and right now no developer or tradesman is sitting at home twiddling their thumbs, they all have a book of work as long as your arm.

Here's the thing, they are building houses for those that generate the taxes drive the economy. Middle-income families are the ones buying the houses that are popping up. It's the lower earners who are struggling.

If you want to build more social and affordable housing, you need to build less private developments. The government does not have a magic wand, you are taking resources from column A and putting it in column B.

I have zero sympathy for landlords, let's be clear, but the rental market is a **** show because of populist policies adopted to make being a landlord unattractive. The longer this goes on, the worse it's going to get for renters. As a renter, you want more landlords, not less. So long as the number of landlords trends down, your rent is going to trend up. And let's be absolutely clear, these populist rental policies are a weaker version of what the current opposition want.

People need to realise the government does not run the property market, they are just another player in it. They do not have a magic button. There is no way to please everyone in housing, somebody has to lose out.

ittakestwo · 19-08-2022 05:14PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119484247#Comment_119484247

I agree but would go further and say it is not just people directly affected by the housing crises that will go SF. I am not affected but still will go SF as I think the inequality now regarding housing is too unjust and FF/FG combination are making it worse.

Housing one of two basic needs to live and we aren't providing it but are supose to believe this country is a success because of GDP figures. The emperor's new cloths.

Bring on SF with policys that are bad for FDI. Exactly what th.e country needs now

Bass Reeves · 19-08-2022 05:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119494574#Comment_119494574

It dose. RTE are already in trouble using contracts rather than directly employing staff.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/rte-offers-staff-contracts-to-81-freelancers-and-self-employed-contractors-after-revenue-raised-concerns-40155710.html

It's something revenue are clamping down on. If contractors are directly contracted in you may find that they will take cases to be treated as employees if there was a sudden move to cease a large amount of there contracts.

This could open a can of worms then as if there work remained and they were considered employees by any of Revenue, the WRC or the labour court you could not necessarily just cease there contracts.

Neither is the presumption that permanent workers will automatically have the skillsets to take over from contractor's

Timing belt · 19-08-2022 08:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119494574#Comment_119494574

Not all recessions are as severe as 08… for a recession to occur all you need is a slow down for 2 Qtrs. A stop to overtime and a hiring freeze would be enough to generate a recession.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119494940#Comment_119494940

the contractors are on zero hour contracts so yes they can be let go without any trouble. The debate about revenue is different as it’s a tax dodge so as not to pay employers prsi