Russia - threadbanned users in OP

You just have to think for a few seconds and you will realise there's no way back for the Russia-Germany relations (while current regime or similar is in power in Russia). So either you have not done that or argue in bad faith?

I mean how does your scenario of Germany going on bended knee to Putin + (I assume) promising to stop supporting Ukraine in exchange for an energy bail out happen without destroying the EU + wrecking relations with most of their allies?

Even if Germany did that it still leaves them open to yet more blackmail and bullying from Putin the next time he wants something. I mean he did it once over something as critical as war and peace/security of the EU, it worked well (in your scenario), why not again?

They (and rest of Europe) cannot rely on Russia as its main energy supplier any more after these events. That is the fact, and it doesn't matter how much pain it is going to cause to end dependence on them that was built up (or if Putin increases this with a full cut off of Russian gas supplies this Autumn/Winter, which seems likely to me anyway).

Perhaps Tom, but if Germany can make it through this winter, they've got their LNG terminal coming on stream next spring. This will replace 20% of their Russian shortfall and ease things slightly.

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/uniper-starts-construction-of-germanys-first-lng-terminal-in-wilhelmshaven/

Hopefully this will ease pressure on their energy system but they are still very dependent on natural gas going forward.

I assume that is the airbase used to hijack an Irish passenger jet 2 years ago.

IMO for the "sake of its own people (as well as the rest of us!)" it's actually imperative that this not happen, and I expect people will realise that, despite the pain. I just can't see it anyway, even if Putin cuts the gas supply fully.

For Germany you'd need some massive political upheval like AfD (or maybe some far left Putin-friends? - not versed enough on German politics) taking power. For the EU, it is impossible now as despite what people sometimes claim, Germany (or FrancoGermany) does not run the EU.

There are a large number of member states (at a guess all the accession states, bar Hungary & perhaps Bulgaria + the northern ones under most threat from Russia) who won't ever agree to unwinding the existing sanctions on Russia. They will suffer pain too, but want more sanctions, not less (e.g. see the push by Baltic states and Finland to try and lock Russian tourists/temporary visa holders out of Schengen) and want loop-holes removed and cracked down on. They want nothing to do with Russia in future and hope to see them crushed in Ukraine + forced to retreat.

I honestly can't see Germany buckling. Not because of any sudden growth of backbone in Olaf Scholz or his fellow SPD ministers but because walking back on the sanctions would cause a collapse of the coalitions. The Greens and in all likelihood the FDP would walk out of government if Scholz tried to push for that, and the social democrats would get absolutely annihilated at the next election! Scholz's limp-wristed policy on Russia, his foot-dragging on sanctions and heavy equipment, as well as numerous domestic issues that he has not really shown any leadership on have left him and his party at a low point that I've never seen before.

Also, the German population in general actually supports the sanctions, supports tougher sanctions than what is currently in place and is, according to recent opinion polls, willing to accept some hardships because of that. The opinion polls and reports I've seen from back in Germany indicate that people are more concerned about the "pain" being distributed equally and that supports are available for those that need them, rather than with the sanctions as such. What's more, parties that promise a hard line on Russia, primarily the Greens and the CDU under its new leader Friedrich Merz, are currently leading in the polls, whilst "Die Linke" and the AfD, parties that have traditionally been anti-western and friendly towards Moscow, are struggling, together with the SPD. Never thought I'd see those three parties in the same grouping, by the way...

The bottom line going forward is that energy dependency in any shape or form on Russia has to end, painful as that may be presently. That bullet has to be bitten. If Putin wins in Ukraine, do you think that will be the end of it??? Where will he attack next? Is it too far out to say Poland and after that maybe Enemy at the gates in reverse, with the Russian army on the German borders again? He has to be stopped, and the sooner the better. And the powers that be recognize that fully.

The Russian army can't even get out of the Donbass my guy and is growing weaker daily, Putin has already lost this war. He certainly won't be taken on NATO. But I do agree that Russia needs to lose and lose bad, there has to be a generational shift in their national culture similar to Germany and Japan post WW2 to insure future stability in Europe

The Russian Army maybe finished (or not) long term, but currently they are far from it. If they were Ukraine would have already chased them out of Ukraine and Crimea all the way back to the Red Square in Moscow. Best case so far from the Ukrainians is that by next march / spring they will have amassed enough troops and equipment to start a major pushback. So while we are seeing heartening good news about massive destruction of Russian military assets, we will need to see a whole lot more of it before we can start to even think that the Russians are defeated. I would definitely not be writing them off just yet. Down the road? Yes. But not just yet.

The 2+ years of COVID will also play a part in the mentality of people, there is a lot more resilience built in now that wasn't there before 2020.

That depends on how the EU pulls together and shares resources & pain insofar as possible. Even though we get gas supplies from UK and Norway, already talk that we may have to soak up some shortfalls as well. At least we tend to have milder winters than central Europe. Be interesting to see what happens here with carbon & other taxes on solid fuel heating like coal in the autumn. Despite Green's best intentions, may need to be a moratorium and campaign to use more coal for home heating where possible for expediency and to spread the energy sources.

The thing with Germany being stuck because their import infrastructure is pivoted to Russian oil and gas is that is also a two way street ..Russian export infrastructure is pivoted to Europe ...

Their pipelines are mainly to Europe .. and their tanker terminals are limited ..

You're ignoring that that the US and Joe Biden are effectively leading the war against Russia and shaping how it is being conducted, not Germany. Therefore the Germans will be in no position to push Zelensky to sue for peace, they are effectively only bit part players.

I wonder will the opinion poles change though as winter starts to take hold?

That’s good to know.

The sooner the better this all ends hopefully in a scenario that suits Ukraine.