A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Pussyhands · 06-08-2022 10:57PM

Another thing about interest rates, as people question why you make things like mortgages more expensive during high inflation. A country/currency increasing interest rates mean investors outside the country/currency will be more likely to buy say, sterling and then buy bonds in that currency.

Very simple overview of course but if you're say French getting 0% on your money, you can sell your euros, buy sterling and then buy bonds and take in a higher interest rate. This selling of euros and buying of sterling increases the value of the sterling (higher demand = higher value). This means imports into the UK from the EU will be cheaper and it's then hoped those savings are passed onto the consumer.

06-08-2022 11:52PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119439188#Comment_119439188

Bringing those questions up we see era of individual currencies coming.

You see,the ECB Can't bring rates up because there is PIIGS countries with huge debts on account.The bigger the ECB rates the more expensive PIIGS debts will be.When at same time BOE or FED doesn't have this problems ! Each time when you are talking about ECB must bring rates up you ignoring this problems ! ECB can't bring rates up because Portugal,Ireland, Italy,Greece,Spain will finish with Defaults and Austerity what will bring euro to grave !

So here we have options.ECB brings rate up but Portugal,Ireland ,Italy ,Greece and Spain will have come back to own currencies and worry about them debts them self without hitting euro down.

But all this inflation and euro problem can be avoided ! Simply waiting for finish of war on Ukraine and when gas and oil prices will go down and it looks like ECB waiting for it .

You have to understand that ECB doesn't have mechanism to bring rates up without tighten rope on EU neck !

Wolf359f · 07-08-2022 01:10AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119439339#Comment_119439339

But the ECB has already increased interest rates.... so have Portugal,Ireland, Italy,Greece,Spain all introduced their own currency now?

Whats the Irish 10 year bond yield vs say the UK? The current inflation is not being caused by too much money, people chasing products etc... an interest rate rise will not stop people paying over the odds for fuel and food. It's not like standard inflation (consumers driving up in demand products), it's people chasing necessities (fuel & food). That's why it's phrased as a 'Cost of living' crisis.

Oil prices are already down to pre-war levels.

Darth Putin · 07-08-2022 04:48AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119438540#Comment_119438540

Most people here have 20-30 year FIXED mortgage and most fixed in low single digits

Like I said if it wasn’t for inflation this is what a boom looks like

anyways

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/european-gas-prices-slip-as-us-production-offsets-russia-supply-cuts-2022-8?utm_source=reddit.com

07-08-2022 06:51AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119439483#Comment_119439483

By how much ? From negative to 0 ? This is nothing at the moment.

Bringing rates up they will bring economy down what will reduce energy consumption.Bringing energy consumption down they hopping bring inflation down.Less demand of energy=smaller energy prices.

Nobody care about ordinary people and never was ! If people want survive they has to learn how to worry about them self , not hopping that somebody will do this for them.

07-08-2022 06:59AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119439588#Comment_119439588

Fixed rates with banks but not with ECB.

Gas prices down by how much ? By 200 from 2100 price ? When price before all this mess was 360 ?

NSAman · 07-08-2022 07:50AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119438424#Comment_119438424

Ahh gas prices still double what they were two years ago. Prices in store doubled. Shopping malls closed save for one store. Shops closed everywhere. For rent signs everywhere. Increasing wages and people working harder to cover staff shortages. Food bank lines increasing daily.

seems like a boom is definitely happening in the states.

brickster69 · 07-08-2022 10:34AM

FT reporting that the West are not happy with Turkey strengthening trade with Russia. There will be a few boomerangs launched at them soon enough.

https://www.ft.com/content/00badf9e-f0d9-417f-9aec-9ac1c2207835#comments-anchor

07-08-2022 12:50PM

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/owner-of-supervalu-and-centra-calls-for-urgent-action-on-energy-41891998.html

The two from most expensive shops as Super Value and Centra complaining about high energy costs.At same time another two of cheapest on market as Lidl and Aldi doesn't complaining about!

https://westobserver.com/news/europe/german-pensioners-have-found-a-way-not-to-pay-for-heating-in-winter/

Germany pensioners found the way how get trough this Winter.

brickster69 · 07-08-2022 02:09PM

Turkey is very important now for the supply of pipeline gas. The most gas supplied is from Turkstream and also the Azerbaijan line goes straight through Turkey as well.

https://twitter.com/DrOguzhnCalisir/status/1555562276685594624

08-08-2022 08:51AM

The parliament and president elections in Turkey next year so pressure from West on Turkey will be rising trying get rid of Erdogan.Turkey is huge trade center between West and East so Erdogan will have play very hard trying avoid sanctions and trying stay in power.

EOQRTL · 08-08-2022 08:55AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119440008#Comment_119440008

Turkey are just ahead of the curve. The west will be dropping more and more sanctions against Russia in the coming months as Europe freezes.

enricoh · 08-08-2022 09:12AM

Pretty stark numbers from the north on chippers closing, spending drying up. I think there is more disposable income down here so we may be less affected. Last time I went to the chipper I didn't think it was good value at all n am less inclined to go back.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2022/08/08/more-than-50-takeaways-in-north-close-in-a-month/

Akrasia · 08-08-2022 09:21AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119438540#Comment_119438540

The current inflation is caused by profiteering and greed. Prices are going up more than the costs are increasing as supply is low so they can jack up the prices.

This means the rich are getting making supernormal profits and the poor are seeing devastating cuts to their incomes.

There needs to be redistribution. Higher taxes on the rich and increases in transfer payments to the poor and increases in the minimum wage

brickster69 · 08-08-2022 09:57AM

Looks like the new ECB tool has come into operation. Basically instead of printing money they are selling the maturing less risky bonds and reinvesting it back into more PIGS ****. Must be bordering on outright state aid now either that or market manipulation.

UsBus · 08-08-2022 10:08AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119443668#Comment_119443668

Not surprised at this. Will be the same with chippers down here soon enough. Got fleeced for a chipper takeaway a couple of months back, haven't gone near it since. Cost wasn't far off a restaurant meal.

Noticed the cost on a few menus while out and about yesterday. Main courses for €25+. One fancy eaterie had this one, cafe latte for €4.95....country will be in bits this time next year. Will it be cocaine or coffee that ruins us..?

Darth Putin · 08-08-2022 01:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119439668#Comment_119439668

Do you get your news from RT?

I am actually here visited half dozen states with as many to go in next month, meeting friends and colleagues who are quick to complain as we Irish do

I’ve seen multiple recessions here, this ain’t one, it’s boom times, hiring posters everywhere, haven’t seen a single boarded up shop, even homelessness which was always jarring is hard to find, cruise ships and theme parks full, new cars everywhere, regular commercial rocket launches including first moon mission (Artemis 1) in couple of weeks

Imho this will be remembered as fondly as 60s are, an era with record unemployment yet inflation at 6-20%

08-08-2022 03:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119444738#Comment_119444738

https://www.carscoops.com/2022/06/new-car-prices-hit-new-high-but-sales-projected-to-drop-by-18-7-so-far-this-year/

New cars sales in USA down in double digits.

https://www.latimes.com/california/newsletter/2022-06-22/silicon-valley-layoffs-netflix-coinbase-hiring-freeze-essential-california

Did you speak with your friends about lay offs in Silicon valley?

Darth Putin · 08-08-2022 05:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119445428#Comment_119445428

There are like 20 jobs open for every software engineer, like I said, impossible to find people

and plenty of recession proof software companies with open positions especially in energy

08-08-2022 05:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119446059#Comment_119446059

By my own knowledge the jobs advertised doesn't mean that employers and mostly agencies looking for workers.

Agencies do fake adverts seeking for candidates CVs just to keep them in data bases until employers will call them for suitable candidate.Once they getting employer call then they could offer him a candidate.Most employers wouldn't like wait until agencies will find candidates,they need candidates asap.So agencies without data base are useless waste of time .

Same employers do just to keep candidates CVs in own data bases for the future hiring or emergency.

So if you see jobs advertised it doesn't mean they are hiring.

Also look at average hours per week stats in USA .At the time when half million jobs are created,for unknown reason working hours per week average are falling.

jackboy · 08-08-2022 05:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119444738#Comment_119444738

It is boom times, when the price of coffee and chips are rapidly increasing that is a symptom of a boom. People rapidly trying to offload property now. Those that saved during covid are rightly enjoying themselves, which is boosting the economy. That is a temporary lift though. I suspect the crash is pretty close now, my best guess is winter or early next spring.

Darth Putin · 08-08-2022 06:20PM

Something for the doom merchants

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2022/07/29/ireland-in-top-10-countries-for-wealth-and-work-life-balance/

brickster69 · 08-08-2022 06:23PM

Some good news for Latvia after being cut off for refusing to pay in roubles 8 days ago. European GTS operators confirm that gas has been flowing again since Friday.👍️

Tonesjones · 08-08-2022 06:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119446268#Comment_119446268

"However, Irish people on average work more hours than people in any other country in the top 10 apart from those living in the United States"

Hustle culture. Apologies for not celebrating its arrival

jackboy · 08-08-2022 06:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119446268#Comment_119446268

Hmmm, almost sounds like the fabled tiger economy. How robust is the Irish economy to shocks? I would say not at all. A small handful of multinationals are keeping the country going while we are intentionally destroying some of our other industries such as tourism and farming.

We put all our eggs in the construction industry the last time, we are doing the same now with the multinationals.

Get Real · 08-08-2022 06:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119443876#Comment_119443876

I don't personally think a 5quid coffee means recession next year. (agree 5 quid for a coffee is madness however)

But the employment figures don't show things slowing down soon.

Take 2013. Unemployment was at 15%. Londis were doing a 1.49 chicken roll, fosters was 2.50 a pint. This was in Dublin. These prices could be found handily enough. Just to get people's feet in the door and keep ticking over.

Now there's a surplus of jobs. Not enough people to fill the vacancies. 0% unemployment will never be achieved in any society.

Its true to say, that in 2007,prices were going mad, and then a recession followed. But the cause of that was a person on average wages being able to get several mortgages.

This time, a recession will come. Its cyclical. But I don't know when. I don't know how you can say this time next year we'll be in the poorhouse without specifying a cause.

What you're pointing at are merely symptoms, not causes. Symptoms of full employment and domestic demand. You might have cut out your chipper, but businesses aren't charging that money for nothing. People are paying although you may not be. Bars and restaurants are rammed every weekend.

The start of Covid everyone was predicting a recession 2 years ago. People are adding 1+1 and getting 7. I'm more than willing to listen to causes of recession, as one will happen as they always do. But not using your methods that don't necessarily give a reason.

08-08-2022 07:16PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119446268#Comment_119446268

Please finally decide what country you are talking about,USA or Ireland.I mentioned USA.

Tonesjones · 08-08-2022 07:24PM

"In 2016–17, foreign firms paid 80% of Irish corporate tax, employed 25% of the Irish labour force (paid 50% of Irish salary tax), and created 57% of Irish OECD non-farm value-add. As of 2017, 25 of the top 50 Irish firms were U.S.–controlled businesses, representing 70% of the revenue of the top 50 Irish firms. By 2018, Ireland had received the most U.S. § Corporate tax inversions in history, and Apple was over one–fifth of Irish GDP. Academics rank Ireland as the largest tax haven; larger than the Caribbean tax haven system"

08-08-2022 08:39PM

That how it's works and that how recession will hit Ireland.

For example Meta ( Facebook)

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/meta-reality-labs-lost-2point8-billion-in-q2-2022.html

Meta losing money

https://www.bisnow.com/dublin/news/office/meta-pauses-giant-dublin-office-fitout-as-tech-bear-market-bites-europe-114034

And pauses Dublin office Fit-Out.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/02/02/paypal-stock-crash-wipes-out-over-50-billion-in-market-value-after-company-lowers-profit-outlook/

PayPal stock crash ?

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/job-losses-paypal-ireland-307-27050878

Minus 307 jobs in Ireland straight after !

Most tech companies shares overvalued.Once they will start losing value due with higher FED rates and slowing world economy this will hit Ireland immediately.

Once stock markets will start fall this Autumn,recession will kick Ireland door.

The difference between 2008 and this recession will be :

The value of tech companies since 2008 was rising,for that reason multinational business was supporting Ireland growth when building sector was falling down.

In this recession the both sectors will falling,because both are bubbles.

The other thing,how bad it was in 2008 but take a aways wasn't closing down.When now they are closing ( 50 chippies closed on North last month )

In last recession we had Deflation,in this recession we will have Inflation.

This recession will be monster against 2008 !

1001 per cent EU will fall apart untill 2030 !

When all EU countries will start suffering from energy and financial crisis,they will start fight against each other! Nobody will want sink on one boat !

Tonesjones · 08-08-2022 08:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119446758#Comment_119446758

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40923119.html

Iassume this was posted a couple of weeks ago

A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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