Home heating oil prices

up here there's no carbon tax and vat on kero is 5%.

In the south you have 10.4c carbon, 2c NORA and 13.5% vat

So circa €1070 in the south at present if you did not have carbon, nora and vat was at 5%

I suspect it will fall as refineries are pumping it out as fast as they can and more refineries are coming on stream.

The carbon tax increase on a fill of oil is insignificant in comparison to the increases over the last few months. What are we talking €20 or so.

Whoever is charging £1000 is a rip off, £870 (€1020) is the cheapest I found with a quick search.

87ppl looks to be the going rate for larger quantities.

Cheapest pump price I can see is €1.15/l in Dandys.

Bargain of the century!!!

Yep, around 127cpl seems to be the cheapest at the moment for 1000l, worth keeping a close eye on if you need a pre-winter fill.

Substantial price drop across the border at the pumps. Its been €1.25 a litre for the last couple of months so I was pleasantly surprised earlier today when it had dropped to €1.03

Across the border as stated in my post.

I’m thinking of ordering a fill this weekend as I can’t see the price coming down much further and there is a good chance of a price spike in the next couple of months.

what do people think? Are the prices likely to continue falling?

Ireland is miniscule in terms of the oil market, so things that happen here will have zero effect.

On the negative side that could see higher prices

1 - dollar getting stronger

2 - Gas prices moving even higher casing a switch back to oil for electricity generation, this will lead to

3 - Refining margins. If there's a move back to electricity generation by oil, this will increase demand and refiner will take advantage

4 - Recession/slowdown doesn't happen, esp in China. This will see oil demand jump and oil prices jump

On the positive side that could see prices fall

1 - Dollar getting weaker

2 - Gas demand drops and gas continues to flow from Russia

3 - A ceasefire

4 - opec and other producing countries increasing supply

5 - refining margins dropping further - refineries are working flat out and there's the start of a glut in the far east.

The big question - of where prices will go. I don't think anyone can give and answer as its driven by so many different parameters at present. Personally i can't see it dropping below €1,000 per 1000L fill. If supplies become tight, it could go back to €1600. I'd be buying at anything under €1200 rather than trying to time it to perfection. But that's simply a layman's view

Donegal would be further from Dublin than Clare and the cheapest price for 500 litres here is 640 rising to 690. However most suppliers are charging around 650. Can't see distance being a factor.