Sophie: A Murder in West Cork - Netflix.

Winter - cold conditions - would preserve evidence.

Either way, remarkable luck. Or awareness.

God yeah....nothing worse than bleach stained clothes....well blood stained is worse. But anyway, what would you do with them when you destroy them with bleach? Sure they`d only be fit for burning.

I think the only person who said she had mental health problems (which is neither a crime nor discredits her, although I think this “evidence” is sketchy too) was Ian Bailey on an indo podcast a day or two ago.

like he’s got room to judge anyone ffs

Jim Sheridan makes this claim about stabbing. On what basis? The post mortem showed no evidence of this. The Italian student may have been fearful of Bailey and may have witnessed his abusive behaviour toward Jules or been told about this by the daughter (her friend) so she may have thought it better not to say anything at the time. If she has been living in the USA ever since the subject might not have entered her head again until the publicity surrounding the Netflix and Sheridan documentaries. I think it's unfair to dismiss her as some kind of fruitcake.

Yeah I know

Thought about it long ago. The bleach would have been the initial plan. It wouldn`t have went as well as expected as Mr Crimeguy succinctly suggests so the only out becomes a good old bonfire. Two similar coats is perfectly possible. But then if he did go over there, who says he was wearing the long dark coat at all? Oh yeah....crazy Marie.

And what else could the buttons have come from.

I would like to see the specific quote on what was found. In the online chinese whispers... Buttons becomes buttons that could be from a coat and ends up as coat buttons.

I think you could be right on both counts. There is a very real chance evidence which could have been gathered thru the latest tech has been destroyed or compromised through poor storage and elapsed time

Who is the 'former British soldier'?

I don't think Bailey did it. For such a small place there were a lot of 'strange people' in the area at the time. Many of whom have gone under the radar as there was such intense focus on Bailey.

There were 2 other young men staying in the Thomas house on the night in question...neither of them noticed the bloody clothes soaking in the bucket (as described by the Italian lady). It seems crazy to think that the overcoat of a man of Bailey's height would even fit into a bucket? And Bailey was clearly seen wearing his long black coat on a video of a Christmas Day swim in Schull two days later.

On the day of her murder Sophie had called to her friends , the Ungerers, and had seem 'spooked'...I think there was something going on in her life that we don't know anything about. Her ex boyfriend (Carbonnet?) had previously assaulted her and her husband Daniel did not even bother to make the trip to Ireland at the time of the murder...these 2 are far more likely suspects to my mind than Bailey. There are other plausible suspects too...it is a fascinating case - I welcome the review and would love closure for her family.

Probabilities are multiplicative, not additive. therefore 30% X 25% X 25% = 1.875% Less than 1 in 50.

That's before we even start on the entire 'logic' of your argument and where you pulled the percentages from.

If I have 100 people who think there's a 1% chance a horse will win a race does that make it 100% certain the horse will win?

The Gard interviewed in West Cork podcast explained how they searched the remains of the fire with a spoon,

They found among other things, lace eyelets from boots and "clothing buttons", no mention of overcoat or whether buttons were plastic or metal.

Buttons need not necessarily come from clothing.

If you would like to see the quote it's in podcast someplace.