Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Personally, both Mark and Elon have bigger issues with their business slowing down and are looking to blame it on something else (in my opinion).

If you just take a look at Elon, Tesla was/is valued more than a bunch of the big car manufactures combined. While only shipping a fraction of what his competitors were shipping. A lot of the new products promised (cyber truck, Tesla semi, FSD) have all been delayed for years. Plus they invested billions in new giga factors just as their competitors are catching up.

As for Mark, people aren't using Facebook. Apple blocked third party AD tracking which will cost them over 10 billion this year alone. He is betting his company on the metaverse. Which has yet to be proven.

While sure we may see some slowdown, I would be wary of taking any hints or advice from them two chaps.

Yet we are about more people coming to live in this country year on year and they all need somewhere to live? Also the government and REITS / Vultures are still buying up housing stock both have very deep pockets. So you reckon any government in power can afford for house building to stop ? REALLY - housing is the number 1 issue in the country followed by inflation.

Yet we are about more people coming to live in this country year on year and they all need somewhere to live?

Unfortunately those people are getting fleeced. A three bedroom house in our estate went for rent at €2,700. About 4 eastern European family shares this house now and they have about 9 kids living in there. You can see all the mammys bring them to school in the morning. We are just creating slum landlords at this point !

Well let's just say the rental market isn't sustainable long term this way. Something will have to give eventually. But who knows when or how long it will take to happen.

Inflation is very hard one, the main cause of this we are told is because of increase in demand (which I agree with), but most companies are still making record profits. So their bottom line isn't hurting, consumers are paying the price and eventually the consumer will not have much in their pockets. If you look at the US, 70% of people have already dug into their savings and they expect their savings to be depleted by Nov/Dec if it continues at this rate.

The interest hike is supposed to slow down the economy and it is a balancing act, if things keep going up.. they are just going to continue to increase the interest rate. If they increase it too much, they can stall the entire economy. Private companies have to do their part too, price gouging has to stop. Most corporations again are making record profits.

While I agree with you, how many restaurants and hotels have increased their employee wages ? We are currently in peak tourist season too.. If they aren't handing out pay rises now, when will they do it ?

This is the same industry that whinges anytime the minimum wage increases.

so we are coming to a tipping point .. will the workers get the pay rises to sustain the high house prices....

I read an article today that social welfare, fuel allowance etc is to get a substantial bump in the next budget. For anyone under E15 an hour they are probably miles better off on welfare with rent allowance, no work travel costs, any bit of a nixer etc. I can't see small employers raising wages too compete. I think a lot of lads with lots of staff in restaurants will be pulling the plug n going with the coffee van, food truck etc.

It'll just leave more people relying on the government for housing imo.

The thinking is if a drop like that happens then there is probably a global recession which should cause the raw material commodities like timber, steel and cement to fall. Sad thing is I don't think Gas prices will fall as they are nearly 100% controlled by Russia. Cement especially requires serious amounts of Gas along with chemical fertilizer. Stagflation looks like the only possible outcome unless and absolute catastrophic sh!tstorm occurs.

The government was tasked with helping on housing affordability/availability over the last 6/7 years with warnings of an impending issue as early as 9 years ago.

Be careful what you wish for, those tasked with carrying out your wishes have a strong record of doing the opposite

Not if the amount of properties being made available is staying up with the increase in population and that is where Ireland in particular is severely lacking and just to add to the argument we have had a number of recessions and in general property prices along with all of the commodities you mention globally have gone up there have been some bounces. So logically I am right

Looks like now is a great time to get a house before banks get nervous about lending again.. Euro hits 20-year low against dollar on recession risk (rte)

"Today's PMI data from Europe have highlighted the risk of slowing growth at the end of the second quarter and raise the prospect of a contraction in activity in the coming months," she added.

"Growing fears of a recession are hammering the euro lower, whilst the dollar is soaring on bets that the Fed will keep hiking rates aggressively to tame inflation," City Index analyst Fiona Cincotta said.

"Oil is still struggling to break out from its current recessionary malaise as the market pivots away from inflation to economic despair," Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a note. (Reuters)

Less than I would have thought but id guess they have alot of negotiating power with their subbies.

House prices are only worth what people will pay.

Unless peoples wages increase, house prices will not. If demand collapses, supply will collapse too. Volume of sales will collapse, but prices will stay around the same/slightly lower as cost of construction has gone well up, which impacts all new builds.