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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    "I dont think our Western leaders response , sanctions etc are doing much, other than raising the cost of a loaf of bread for the man in the street."

    Sanctions and embargoes will work long term to hugely contract the Russian economy. But you're right, in the short term, a coalition of 'friends of Ukraine' may yet choose a more direct form of action and enter the war to drive Russian forces back across the borders. A 'Special Military Operation' if you like.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,161 ✭✭✭relax carry on


    Wars use up a lot of material? It's not the movies where the gun never needs to be reloaded or maintained.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,041 ✭✭✭jmreire


    For some I'd say, compared to Russian prison life, they will be prepared to take the chance.....



  • Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I’m only surprised they’d not done it before now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,964 ✭✭✭threeball


    Unlikely to end well. These people are not the type to follow orders or structure. They will have quite a number of unhinged individuals in their ranks too. The type that would take exception to being asked if they'd like their vodka topped up. So they're just as likely to kill their own as Ukrainians.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,964 ✭✭✭threeball


    One of the best things they could do at the moment is get "winter ready". Proper winter attire and boots. Mobile Heaters to make whatever refuge they take more comfortable. High quality rations. The Russians will have none of this and its going to be a long hard winter after spending months dodging artillery fire. To sit there wet, cold and starving will break most men.



  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Consistent with views in Sunday papers and interview I heard this morning on times radio with a former special advisor to the US president on Russia and ambassador to Kazakhstan and Georgia. Saying US has given 1/3 of its stock of stinger and other missiles to Ukraine, will be 1/2 at end of year, and may not be willing to provide much more than that. Western cohesion and appetite showing signs of weakening. Little to no chance of pushing Russia back in any meaningful way this year, and after that is all very uncertain.

    All western nations continue to hold the line that any settlement must be acceptable to zelensky, but likelihood is that talks are going on behind the scenes between EU, UK, US and Zelensky about what that peace might look like

    that’s the somewhat pessimistic message from people who know what they’re talking about



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,449 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    The weapons are been delivered at a deliberate/managed pace. if too much is sent into the Ukraine at the same time, Russia will just send in an airstrike and blow it all up. It's hard to hide heavy weapons due to their size and the need to transport them by rail or road. Air superiority would be a mega bonus for Ukraine but they don't have that hence why the Ukraine badly wanted a no-fly zone at the start of the invasion. Those static howitzers are an easy target for counter-battery fire which is why so many of them are constantly in need of repair. Even an old-school RPG7 can knock out a big static gun. Mobile units like those supplied by Europe are much better as they can change location every 10- 15 minutes or so making them very hard for Russia to counter. I still feel it was a mistake for President Joe Biden to be so slow at supplying long-range weapons as now most of the est is certainly lost to Russia for the short term. How to retake it is a very big question. It would take an army of 300000 Ukraine soldiers and some very serious hardware support to drive out Russia. Toppling Putin and a regime change in Russia would be a better option as I cant see Russian power brokers continuing to tolerate all these sanctions long-term .

    Dan.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,521 ✭✭✭zv2


    The Americans burned out two M777s in Iraq so a lot of Russian stuff must be well toasted by now.

    They could use them to walk across mine fields at gun point, like in WW2.


    Amazing Javelin shot-


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,449 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    Very disturbing indeed. There must surely be someone in Moscow who is shaking their head as to what their president is doing.

    Dan.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,288 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    It's already contracted Russia's economy. The strength of the Rouble for all the wrong reasons shows that most clearly. Their finance ministry has made three interest rate cuts in as many months to try and cool that off. And they bought into the Rouble with whatever foreign reserves they had left, which of course depleted those ever further. They had to cut interest rates because(very basically) high interest rates are bad because it makes it expensive to borrow and better to save, which in turn means less investment and they're effectively cut off from foreign investment.

    But away from the battlefield in reality and on twitter and even the current Russian economy, it's the medium and long term effect on wider Russia herself that's their biggest problem. There is much talked on both sides, though to differing ends and spin, about their oil and gas exports, which account for nearly 60% of all Russia's exports. And for good reason. A goodly chunk of the West was and is reliant upon them, not least economies like Germany. So we have the crazy setup where Germany's economy and others are helping pay for the bombs dropping on Ukraine.

    However and it's a huge however, Russia became reliant on all the other Western stuff that keeps her going and that's far more serious. A small seemingly minor example is the recent problem Russia's new banknotes have with their ATMs. They can't use them, because their ATMs were made in the West or with Western tech, Western tech that is now cut off from them and that Russia quite simply can't produce and are many years away from being able to. Oh the Chinese will save them!!. Nope, they won't as the vast majority of Chinese tech involved in such things is Western in origin and licence and Russia's economy on its best day is worth about one of the smaller EU nations to China. And other IT production nations like Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Germany, Malaysia and the US aren't going to help them are they?

    Look at their aerospace industry. Never mind the Boeing/Airbus fleet that are now worthless dead planes taxiing. Unlike in the USSR days where they were essentially self sufficient(but with a much larger population) their internal industry has become heaviliy reliant upon foreign tech in design, engines, avionics etc. So that's buggered too. Even their big sticks of oil and gas need Western tech to prospect, extract and transport. Western tech that is again now cut off from them and will take years to develop and build internally.

    Now extend that to everything that has a Western "silicon chip" in it. Computers, booking systems, transport, banking, phone networks etc. All on the clock and all taking years of major investment and cash to replace with an internal industry of their own. Never mind all the other Western stuff they've now lost access to. And that's just the basic overview of their woes. That's before we consider being cut out of the political and economic circle of economies that matter - and no China and India don't count nearly so much as their supporters believe and pray for. International borrowing and leasing and insurance are now closed to them for the foreseeable.

    War is not just a tactical and strategic affair, in the end it boils down to an economic and political one. No matter how Russia does tactically and strategically, even if they take the whole of Ukraine(they won't), they've already lost the economic and political war and badly*.




    *Very early on I felt their biggest fuk up in all of this was their failed run to Kyiv. Sorry "tactical feint". If they had just invaded the so called "independent" states" and had gone whinging to the UN about Ukrainian massacres of separatists and they were peacekeepers and want the UN's help I do think they could have gotten away with it, and certainly gotten away with far less of a crippling hit to their future than they're facing now.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,754 ✭✭✭Rawr


    An excellent point, and I agree. I fully expect all of this to last past the end of this year and possibly longer. The Russian forces could barely manage the basic field rations or gear for a spring / summer campaign, you can only imagine how they’ll cope without enough thermal layers or fortifying meals. If Ukraine can keep their lads warm and properly fed, they can outlast them while the unfortunate Russian lads conscripted into this as cannon fodder, will possibly freeze to death in their trenches.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,521 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Curious_Case


    How about a flotilla of tethered hydrogen filled balloons over important cities. Designed to explode if a missile either hits them or passes close by.

    The idea being to either pre-detonate the incoming missiles or knock them off target.

    Smaller ones could be employed over military positions.

    Perhaps mix with helium or nitrogen if more cost-effective and still effective enough.

    Could micro drones be used (too small to detect) to fly into artillery gun barrels and release a jamming substance?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,288 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Helium is inert and won't explode, nitrogen is about the same "weight" as air so won't float and barrage balloons were in play in WW1 and WW2. They've never enjoyed a comeback as they weren't particularly effective if at all. So no.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,748 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    Starting to look quite pessimistic for Ukrainian forces in the east now.

    Unfortunately I dont see how Ukraine will ever be able to retake the eastern Donbas regions again, not unless western nations/ NATO decide to back Ukraine to the hilt and start sending far more advanced weaponry.

    I think their probably was a lot of unfounded optimism here in regards to Ukraine winning and being able to push the Russians back, I was hoping this would be the case, but unfortunately the reality is looking different now.

    As much as Zelensky, Ukraine and others say that Ukraine should never give up any of its territory to the Russians (And they are fully justified to feel this way IMO) , reality will dictate that they may not have any other option unfortunately. I just hope that if they come to some sort of peace agreement to this end that it comes with some sort of security guarantee with it, i'm just not sure how that could happen though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Curious_Case


    I wasn't suggesting helium or nitrogen alone. Consider a 50:50 mix of either H:He or H:N if hydrogen alone is too costly or more explosive than required.

    I take your point that weight is an interplay between mass and gravity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 800 ✭✭✭Stewball


    So how are we all coping with the fall of Lisichansk and the entire Lugansk People's Republic?

    I must admit, I was surprised at how easy Lisichansk was taken - I'm now expecting similar to occur in the cities of the Donetsk People's Republic in the coming weeks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,847 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    In all of history has Russia ever been the “good guys” ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,739 ✭✭✭20silkcut




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,646 ✭✭✭rogber


    Yes, all the objective reports are pretty pessimistic right now, but the military experts of boards (their numbers have dropped notably in recent weeks) will keep insisting that the big counter offensive to drive Russia all the way back to Moscow is just around the corner and will keep posting the occasional video of a Russian tank being blown up to prove that Ukraine is actually on the way to victory. Ukraine has no choice but to fight, but it looks increasingly like a doomed effort, at least as far as the East is concerned: what land Russia doesn't take it will simply destroy. Ukraine needs a game-changer, and very quickly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,646 ✭✭✭rogber


    Depressing, but not surprising. Expect one of the slava Ukraine group here to say it's all part of the Ukraine strategy for imminent victory. More realistic, sadly, is the opinion of the ex-British army hief who's said that now that Russia has a large chunk of the east under its control the stage could be set for negotiations for a settlement, which presumably means: Ukraine gives up the east of the country for security guarantees for the rest of the country. A horrible compromise but probably as good as is realistic right now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,847 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    a big feature of russia’s WW2 campaign was rape… so though in that particular battle they were marginally the lesser of two evils… I don’t think they can be considered the good guys during that time period…Stalin had just engineered a famine causing the death of millions



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,711 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Helped defeat Nazism of course which is hugely to their credit, but by summer 1945 it was still evident to anyone that it was a horrible oppressive dictatorship. East Germany and subsequently the Berlin Wall should never happened and their occupation or 'control' over Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, the Baltics etc for four decades were mostly completely illegal.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,646 ✭✭✭rogber


    The lesser of 2 evils in WW2. Yes, Stalin was an absolute monster and colonised half of Europe after the war, but the countless millions of Russians who fought and died against the Nazis were facing an existential threat even worse than what Ukraine faces now and many were true heroes who gave up their lives for a war none of them chose.



  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I would guess gust this would happen this year. I don’t think anyone wants this to drag on through a winter. And over coming weeks I would imagine that the US will start to question whether further depletion of its weapons stocks is worth it, if the writing is on the wall. Let alone the expense



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Why is it some posters seem incapable of presenting their views without a need for petty digs?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,072 ✭✭✭jackboy


    I would assume weaponry would need to be replaced anyway on a periodic basis and disposal of old weaponry is very expensive. Depleting stocks by handing it over to Ukraine may not be economically bad, depending on how long they plan to replace these stocks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so



    So they will do what instead? Seem to recall that there are 40 odd countries involved, not just the US. Quite a lot of what is being delivered is not in a press release.



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  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I think because since this started anyone who suggested that a settlement was an inevitability has been portrayed by certain posters as as pro-Russia or a putin-bot



This discussion has been closed.
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