Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

My initial reply didn't explain. I didn't mean they would actually have one. jus they would ramp up the calls for one.

Throw that in the mix and suddenly the UK government are actively playing with the union. The Scots would demand one as well. That is pretty intense political pressure and no UK PM want to be the one that signs off on the end of the the union.

SF are not stupid, or short-sighted, enough to actually demand one. But if the Uk insist on ripping up the NIP, and thus meaning a border is required, I think SF will place the border (they have no choice if in government) with the line that a border poll is the only viable option at that stage.

With someone like Johnson in charge Sinn Fein will probably vigorously call for a border poll knowing he will never allow one which is win/win for them.

That's the usual twisty way brexiters and British nationalist types seem to frame all this.

It won't be the EU "imposing" this border (for goods flowing between NI-Ireland, paperwork and/or involving physical checks somewhere at some stage), it'll be the UK putting Ireland (and EU) in quite a tough place deliberately for its politicial purposes and basically the wider geopolitical goals (disrupting & weakening the EU), and Ireland then chosing the lesser evil (in my view).

If you think that's some kind of great achievement by the UK govt., well have at it. You can spin it all you want and sneer its the EU "imposing a border" etc etc but it won't make up down, or down up, and Irish people will see all this for what it is. I expect its going to make for some fairly poisonous relations with this country for a good while to come if it plays out that way. Not that this UK govt. or its deluded supporters will care I'm sure!

Of course the options are being considered, wouldn't it be irresponsible not to consider the options, there are only 2, impose a border RoI / NI or have risk assessed checks between RoI and mainland EU until the Brits can be encouraged to grow up and adhere to the agreement they made?

It's absolutely not clear that the EU won't end up in a trade war with UK, it certainly won't be their first step but it may be where things end up over time.

You are attributing "soothing tones" to a simple analysis of the options. Even if the EU went full metal jacket and dove straight into a trade war we would still have to decide between an RoI / NI border or risk assessing goods going from RoI to EU until that trade war was won.

If the UK Govt goes ahead and implements the NIPB the only two questions to be answered will be:-

1. Do we impose an RoI / NI border or accept risk assessed checks on goods flowing RoI to EU?
2. How long will the arrangement decided in #1 have to be in place before the Brits re-join the grown ups?

And "no", AFAIK there are no risk assessments for goods leaving any other EU state for another and perhaps, just perhaps, that would be because no other EU state has a land border with the UK which is subject to a very finely balanced peace agreement which the British decision to Brexit has put at risk?

A hard border on the island of Ireland isn’t going to happen, Bojo the clown needed to create yet another distraction from the complete and utter mess he’s making of everything he does. The UK is is a very weak negotiating position with the EU, this nonsense won’t change that.

But but but, just wait another two weeks, something something something……………

It's not correct that "Ireland& EU will not impose a border". Ireland has obligations EU EU & EU has obligations to its citizens and its trading partners to have borders.

If the position of Ireland & the EU were actually "never any border under any circumstances", then the UK could very easily blackmail Ireland & the EU - "give us everything we want or else we'll flood the single market with cheap illegal rubbish or you impose a border" - just like surrendering to Putin & his nuclear threats.

Instead Ireland & EU's position is no negotiated solution which includes accepting a hard border. Outside a negotiated solution - such as the UK reneging - a hard border is theoretically possible. Now the EU would of course revoke the TCA, the US would put pressure on the UK & the EU would likely have others (Australia, Canada, Japan) also put pressure on the UK - & the EU & Ireland would act slowly as the British economy collapsed into anarchy, so it is highly unlikely the UK would get to this point - but it is theoretically possible (& it is the only possible escalation path for Ireland).

Of note, it was Ireland that first imposed the customs border in 1920s and did so because the UK was attempting to take advantage of no border in order to destroy the independent Irish economy by flooding the country with subsidised goods, hence suffocating Irish independence at birth.

Ireland did & will always do anything - including cutting a part of itself off & installing a border to escape British control.

You misunderstand:

By reneging on its treaties, the UK can relatively simply if painfully & illegally, cause Ireland & the EU to have to put up a border somewhere on Irish/EU territory as Ireland & the EU have various obligations to install borders.

The precise location will be decided by Ireland - but it would eventually, after some foot-dragging to see if the UK economically survives, be on the border with NI.

The questions are:

Would UK ever go that far?

How long can it survive the resultant economic catastrophe?

It's good to see the realisation sinking in as to the situation.

Only firm EU action will stop this behaviour. That's the reality.

We have had words and some legal action so far after 6 years of destabilising harassment from our neighbour.

Not good enough.

The EU has been firm and will continue to be firm but they will be deliberate and calculated whereas you want them to rush in and do what exactly apart from feed the BoJo / ERG trolls? This is a long game where short term actions are of no consequence.

You don't play poker by any chance do you?

Gas stuff altogether pure and utter fantasy.

You only want the EU to act first because you know it's a bad move for the EU. And for same mad reason you think repeating it here every few weeks will make it happen.

Absolute BS. You hate the EU and the SM and are fooling no one.