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Inflation

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,452 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    I work in an area where I can see the effects that the current situation is having on families. It's not so much monetary but the lack of services that are available to children and the lifelong impact this will have on them. It's scandalous what's going on. But for the most part it's being brushed under the carpet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,768 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yup, i personally believe we re currently experiencing ideological collapse, and nobody really knows what to do about it, but there are some really good ideas out there in how to approach it, but most of these ideas arent making it into our politics at all, its very disturbing to watch unfold...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,146 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Ino the definition of a recession is 2 negative quaters, but I think its already hear in principle and like you I would be of the impression that when recession talk is being thrown around so much in the last 2 months then we are already in one. Google trend recession and within another month we will be up near 2008.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,768 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yea, i can understand why theres debates over these terms, but we must be adults now, and accept, something is going catastrophically wrong, and we better do something about it quickly, or else....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,258 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    Where is this nonsense that the tech sector is about to implode. I heard similar on the david mc Williams podcast. I think people are not getting the difference between non profitable trash tech and the big tech monopolies.

    When we start hearing that apple google facebook etc are laying people off then it's time to start worrying but we haven't seen anything like that yet.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,768 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...the arguments by dmcw is related to credit, as in, its starting to dry up, typically this is the beginning stages of a recession, as the creation of new credit is a critical component of maintaining economic activities, when its starts to dry up, sh1t generally happens, so.....

    again, most are actually employed by sme's, not the bigger companies, but theres far more protective measures in place for these bigger companies than the sme's, so....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,321 ✭✭✭jackboy


    The worst may not come to pass but each household would be prudent to put a plan in place now for next winter. Excessive spending and luxuries could be curtailed now. If a household commonly uses certain long life foods it would be a good idea to say buy a years worth now before the prices explode in the autumn. No downside once a household has suitable storage space.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    They are only a part of the picture, there is a myriad of companies in the tech sector, providing well paid jobs etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,768 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...but what if you require most if not all of your current income to simply survive, week to week!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,568 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    There has been lay offs and talks about lay offs in some of the big names I thought?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,768 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,452 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    Well to me the success of an economy should somehow depend on how we treat our.children and our old people and we are currently failing many in both of these groups. Pensioners on fixed incomes have little to no wriggle room to protect themselves against rising prices. Children's services are pretty much non existent and if you can't afford to pay for them (which a huge percentage of families cannot) you have little to no hope.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,146 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    I wouldn't be worried about are big tech in terms of mass jobs losses, I'd be more worried about their revenue dropping which in most cases defiantly will if we enter a recession where and inflation is high and consumer spending is down, alot of those big tech bar probably Google rely alot on advertising for consumer spending items that are descritionary.

    If this happens and Ireland corporate tax take is down due to this then we are up **** creek because without that this country is nothing as our indigenous industry is cripled already.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,321 ✭✭✭jackboy


    People in that situation will be in trouble and will be looking to the government to step in. Problem is, if too many are looking for government support then the government may need to decide who to help and who to let sink. This is worst case I think, but a realistic scenario.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Consumers are starting to change tact, definitely a tightening of belts starting.


    People are also getting electricity bills that are frightening the tar out of them.


    People will be acting like a recession long before it is declared.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,768 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    completely agree, we have completely failed, we ve been codding ourselves for years, if not decades, that everything is fine, but its clearly disintegrating, and quickly to! for example, the esri have said everything is looking hunky dory, i.e. theres clearly something that adding up here, its clearly obvious their models virtually have nothing to do with the reality of many, if not most!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,768 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    so, maybe it would be a good idea to implement polices right now, to reduce the severity of such an outcome, just an idea!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,146 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Want to see how flawed those ERSI clowns models are look up there new model on owner occupied housing inflation, data took from 2013 and 2014 baring in mind this was made end 2019 and 2020. Its even more so flawed now as they weighted it to validate it by giving higher weight to long term rent vs new rentals, no more people are entering the new rental side that ever as small landlords selling up and moving back to dublin after covid lockdowns. There a shambles and only make models that suit certain agendas



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,146 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,768 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    jesus, i must do so, thank you

    to be fair to them, i suspect is the fact their models are primarily neoclassically based, i.e. equilibrium based, dsge etc



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,452 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    I have seen the ersi reports and I know for many people they couldn't be further from the truth. As you say something clearly isn't adding up. They're obviously using some extra elements to totally distorte the figures. These elements have no benefit to the vast majority of us.

    I see things on social media of people already getting electricity bills of 4/5/600 euro. It's supposed to be the cheapest time of year for those. How will these people manage when the winter comes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,321 ✭✭✭jackboy


    They should. There is a lot that they could do. There is no motivation for them to do that though, as they are getting almost no pressure from the public, so they will enjoy their summer and wait till the budget.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,038 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    Contract for my electricity is up soon priced around and the cheapest is double what I am paying now



  • Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    These people must be leaving every appliance on 24 hours a day, showeing 4 times a day, running the tumble dryer non stop and plugging 10 electric cars in. I cannot figure out how that much electricity is being used by a standard household.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,146 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Housing inflation figure that gets baked into our CPI should be way higher that it is due to this idiot model. They use or 'spin' the reason they used 2013 2014 figures is due to RENT Pressure Zones being introduced, the dog on the street knows the RPZ didn't do **** all for rent prices



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,452 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    I don't understand it myself either to be honest. But on some of the posts, I've seen numerous people with what I would consider massive bills. They also could have arrears that they are not disclosing. As its social media you'd have to take it all with a pinch of salt.

    But they are getting them. I've seen the pics of the bill amounts.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,768 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ah its really due to the fundamental failures of neoclassical economics, this school of thought is still refusing to accept the true function of money, debt and banks etc etc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,258 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    It's all about a few multinationals with ireland.18bn corporate tax in last 12 months with likely 2/3 of this from MNCs. Half of all corporate tax from 10 large firms. Corporate tax make up quarter of all tax etc.

    Then we have all the direct jobs these guys are providing nevermind the indirect jobs construction cafes etc.i don't see many small tech companies based out of Dublin, its all the big players...also pharma would unlikely to be hit that hard in a downturn. These guys are monopolies that are cash generating machines. I just think layoffs are unlikely.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,568 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    A lot of the discretionary non essential spending is going to be eaten alive- not happening so much yet as the job cuts haven’t really kicked in yet and there is still a bit of covid cash around. Like of fancy hairdressers etc going to be quiet.



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  • Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Well I'd almost bet they haven't switched their provider in the last 12 months, aren't submitting meter readings, and are blaming the government and everyone else instead of acting like an adult and fixing the problem themselves.



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