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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Rents collapsed with prices so it was easy to hold.

    Yes there were plenty of warnings. Northern Rock Bank went bust a year before 08 collapse. Eyes turned to Anglo after that culminating in the Patrick's day share price collapse. There was a primetime docu warning of high risks in the system.

    Note there were warnings right through the noughties escalating on the introduction of 100% mortgages but they were more frequent in 07/08, leading to Berties suicide comment about people talking down.

    Daft and real estate alliance reports are amongst the better reports out there for a view of where the market is at but no substitute for your own leg work in the area you intend to buy



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,184 ✭✭✭JohnnyChimpo


    The only trick to holding out in 2008-2011 was to not get fired or be forced to take a massive paycut. I was a penniless PhD student so no chance of buying property regardless, but I appreciated the 30+% drop in my rent


    This time however I don't see the rents collapsing, certainly not to the same extent



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,525 ✭✭✭jj880


    Mortgage fraud is up in the States. I know the central bank have strict rules about lending but before a crash they usually go out the window. It'd be interesting to see fraud stats for here. I had a look but couldn't find any.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    2 job losses, (08 and 10) plus reduction in pay in subsequent jobs in our household. There was always a cloud over the jobs so we were prepared.

    Recessions can be scary but they can bring incredible opportunity.

    I feel this one could be very different to 08



  • Posts: 168 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Some people actually have a heart and would feel bad for having a property you cant pay for..... the next 12 months should be interesting.



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  • Posts: 168 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Are people who are currently renting looking to buy asap or holding tight? Interesting to hear peoples thoughts.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 221 ✭✭greensausage


    I was planning to buy in the next 12 months assuming i could find the right property of course but i think i'll be tolding tight for now.



  • Posts: 168 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Very different in what sense? I guess back then there was an over supply with rents fairly low.



  • Posts: 168 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Yes, my wife and I are in the same boat. Have both steady jobs, a decent deposit saved but just haven't seen a house we really want as of yet. I think the key is not to panic buy and buy a house you actually want to live in long term. We are happy to rent until that time comes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,560 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    What I don't understand with these new developments (and we're seeing the same thing out my way with the O' Deanvey Gardens redevelopment) is the sheer height and scale of the things. It's like there was no room for moderation at any stage of the planning.

    Yes, we need lots more homes, and fast. Yes, we need to go higher than we have been historically. But at what point do we say 'okay, that's high enough?' in regards to how something sits into its surroundings? Again, we need big developments to help solve the housing crisis, but at the same time I would assume folks want to have some kind of visual attractiveness to the developments and not just massive monstrosities everywhere?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,634 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Dense developments are badly needed in the cities, as the alternative is sprawl and more traffic.

    Attitudes against dense development is why we have endless housing estates as far as the eye can see, and chronic traffic issues.



  • Posts: 168 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Just reading through some of the comments on here dating back a few months. Its laughable, I never knew we had so many Economists on this thread. Half says the market is about to crash (mainly renters I would imagine), the other half (I'm guessing home owners) are saying there is no way the market will crash.... I guess time will tell. Economists world wide are saying the market has peaked, but the Economists on here dont seem to agree.



  • Posts: 168 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Increased pay is only temporary one would have to think...



  • Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    For better or worse, if that Dundrum development goes ahead its going to cause the mother of all traffic issues, on top of the mother of the mother of all traffic issues the mental hospital development is going to cause. I'm yet to see any plans as to how the roads or the luas is going to deal with either?

    Beyond NIMBYism, some of these developments do have genuine issues..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭combat14


    interesting to note that prices here are now generally 40pc higher than the average across the European Union

    Combined housing costs such as rents, mortgage rates, gas and electricity, are again the most expensive at 89pc above the EU average


    has to be food for thought for anyone thinking of coming to holiday, do business or live here .. we are going to eventually price ourselves out of certain markets





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 768 ✭✭✭dontmindme




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 311 ✭✭SmokyMo


    if you follow economists especially academic ones, long enough, you realize most of them are charlatans.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 736 ✭✭✭al87987


    Wow, some startling figures in there. Rip off Republic at its finest. Where's the outrage? How long more can this continue?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    some kind of visual attractiveness

    Agree, many of the apartments being built look appalling. It's a shame there isn't some sort of aesthetic requirement.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,734 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Ridiculous regulation like MUP certainly and unnecessarily add to it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,560 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    I do agree we need dense developments, but this need seems to have given developers a kind of carte blanche to build the densest, highest, ugliest things they can and anyone who objects is branded a NIMBY and told to shut up.

    There's definitely a space in between developers throwing up cheap ugly housing and NIMBY-ism objecting to everything. Good design is (you'd think anyway) a staple of architecture and building. With this push for accelerated building we've actual been given an amazing opportunity to create great spaces for people to live in but I'd imagine the simplest solution for developers is what we're going to see more and more of.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,634 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Good design vs ugly design has nothing to do with density for the most part. If the density requirements weren't there, then we would be seeing horrendously ugly housing estates of semi Ds going up instead.

    Just have a look at what new build housing estates look like these days either, its all about glass, corner full height windows, no gardens, no fascia/soffit. Council estates from the 60s had more visual appeal than the crap they churn out today - and even they were denser! (council terraces vs private semi Ds)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,560 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    We're kind of agreeing here though, I've no issue with density as long as it's done right visually. A lot of objections I see are coming from folks saying that they've no problem with new developments in their area, just to please make them look visually appealing and not just a huge mass of concrete and glass with no consideration given to the area around it.

    I suppose the problem is, visual flair and consideration costs more money. Why would developers bother spending more when they can just pack in as many apartments as possible?

    Its just starting to give me shades of all the corpo flats that were thrown up as a matter of urgency to replace the falling down tenement buildings. They served their purpose and housed people, but ultimately now are ugly as sin and being torn down in a lot of cases.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Why are we still on the 2021 thread when we are half way through 2022 already? 🤣



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,248 ✭✭✭wassie


    How is yer wan at the end with her objection essay letter..climate change, mental health, removal of trees for the bridge, biodiversity

    ....and she still she could write more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,634 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    I know what you mean, however until there is some legal requirement to make aesthetic buildings its not grounds enough for the public to get stuff refused planning permission is it? Most planners dont really care about the look unless they actually live nearby themselves, in which case they are biased and shouldnt get a say.

    New boards has no need for separate threads anymore, everything is a neverending megathread



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,248 ✭✭✭wassie


    Town planners per se are not qualified to make these judgements any more than the lay person. AFAIK they have no formal training in design other than maybe a couple of urban design units which is more about master planning rather than individual built form.

    Typically aesthetics can be addressed through 'Design guidelines' incorporated as part of planning policy. But when an application needs assessment for compliance with any design guidelines, the application could be referred to a specialist design review panel to review and make reccomendations. The panel would typically be made up of qualified persons such as highly experienced Architects.

    But it does add another layer of red tape into the development approval process and design is always going to be subjective and potentially controversial. Thats when politics enters into the mix and it can get messy.

    Edit: this may already occur in some form - I have not looked into the planning process in DCC specifically.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Hard to call, could be a very mild recession up to world war 3 (non-nuclear, we hope)

    The current conditions have been caused by governments and central banks. This time its countries that will fail, could they pull banks down with them? Share prices are way out of whack with historic norms so I'd expect much more losses there. Crypto has lost 2 trillion of its 3 trillion valuation last year. What potential contagion could all these correction unleash. Chinese property and banks, a bubble twice as big as the 08 collapse?

    Multiple known unknowns each one with the potential to be devastating to the world economy. Could central banks krank up the money printers, of course, but where does that take us. Zimbabwe? Turkey. Alot of denial out there

    It is concerning that opec is not raising production to any great degree, could there be collaboration between the big players to keep prices extremely high to counteract esg. Renewable power is a great threat to them scarce resources and high energy costs make renewable energy less likely. The last sting of a dying wasp or a changing world order?

    Destabilisation in Africa, food crisis, ethnic tensions stoked and funded by The usual subjects. What your family is hungry! Come join our military and we will feed your family with food plundered from our neighbours. Syria for example

    Ireland industry wise is strong with agri, pharma, med tech, Risks and opportunities from potential deglobalisation, would need house prices to drop significantly to maximise opportunities restore competitivenes

    Govt debt atrocious and huge risk



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The irl v EU figures on cost of living show yet again just like housing Government are the main cause of the disparity going by the sectors involved

    Sectors with excessive govt meddling/regulation are the big hitters while on cloths, consumer electronics we have cheaper prices



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,587 ✭✭✭Underground


    That nimby video is hilarious, I actually think the guy making the videos does more harm than good to the nimby cause, it really shines a light on how ridiculous and selfish their views are.

    Screenshot_20220621-105346_Twitter.jpg




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