Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Because they have not been forced to disconnect from Russian oil

Hungary and Czechias hardships have not happened yet - thats the point. If they were to be cut off Russian oil pipelines they would suffer a state of emergency. Hungary has no ports to import oil en mass, nor do they even have the refineries to deal with oil from other sources. Czechia and Croatia would have similar issues with sourcing and refining respectively.

Kasparov understands the Russian mentality very well.

BERLIN, June 1 (Reuters) - Germany will supply Ukraine with the IRIS-T air defence system, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, following pleas from Kyiv and German opposition parties to step up heavy weapons deliveries.

Scholz feeling the pressure.The big question in When?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-send-iris-t-air-defence-system-ukraine-scholz-2022-06-01/

I'll believe it when I see it. At this point, I wouldn't trust Scholz nor anyone else in the SPD to give me the time of day! That bastard has done more damage to Germanys reputation in three months than I thought a single person would be able to do in a decade. For the first time in my 40 years on this planet, I'm actually ashamed of my nationality.

The Swiss need a kick in the hole.SWITZERLAND has banned Denmark from supplying Piranha III armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine, as reported on Wednesday, June 1

‘they do not want to supply weapons to conflict zones itself’ and would prefer to ‘stay neutral’.

The Swiss Federal Council is expected to make a decision on Friday, June 3

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/06/01/switzerland-denmark-piranha-iii-ukraine/

Do people expect the cutting off of Russia to be cost-free? That is not going to happen.

The sanctions aren't or shouldn't be expected to get Russia to change course in my own opinion, or if people expect that from the sanctions they are hoping in vain given how determined Putin + the regime seem to be on pursuing this.

They will reduce our dependence on Russia and hopefully slowly strangle Russia's economy, cripple it's ability to build up its military, and make sure it can't go "on tour" once again in a Baltic state or Poland some years down the road.

The only thing that's gong to stop them in my view is combination of everything blowing up and getting too much: Ukraine's resistance/the help it gets from abroad, the economic sanctions + international pressure on Russia, and perhaps an outburst of serious Russian public anger if Putin is forced to try and put the population/economy on more of a "total war" footing to just to keep on going in Ukraine. In summary making the price to carry on with this just too high for Putin.

Is Craggy Island a NATO member?

It's not that. For me, this whole thing goes a lot deeper. Germany and its population occupy a special place in history, due to the horrendous crimes committed and due to the fact that we were still invited back into the global community. I was raised in the spirit that we as a nation have a special responsibility not to let the horrible events of 33-45 repeat themselves. That means using every means possible to prevent another war, but at the same time standing up to those countries that use military force to redraw the borders in Europe and not standing idly by when concentration camps are set up again, entire districts depopulated and deported. This is where we're failing big time at the moment.

Germany, in its post-war constitution, is prohibited from using military force in anything other than self defense or treaty obligations, so I get that a direct involvement in Ukraine would not only be problematic from a political point of view, but possibly illegal. I also get that the state of the Bundeswehr is atrocious, to put it mildly, and that a lot of weapons are needed just to get that force to something approaching an acceptable state of readiness. However, Germany has a very capable defense industry, and at the very least, Germany should be expediting delivery of their products to Ukraine. The very fact that not just the Chancellor, but the minister of defense and senior officials within the Ministry of Defense, need to be publicly shamed into doing so is just infuriating for me. We should know better and do better!

Deutschland unterstützt die Ukraine- Germany back Ukraine

The Germans have been the bulk funders of the EU for decades now, yet retain strong support for it.

Which would knock your theory into a cocked hat....

Bit of an update regarding the IRIS-T system. German military blog "Augen geradeaus" reports that these will be brand-new units fresh from the manufacturer. It looks like Germany is planning to redirect a battery (3 octuple launchers, 1 radar vehicle, 1 command post) currently being assembled for Egypt to Ukraine at short notice.

The manufacturer, Diehl Defence, currently has the capacity to produce two batteries a year but is apparently looking to double this capacity. If this goes through, and given we're talking about Scholz who's announcing that, it is a BIG if, Ukraine might see a steady supply of these systems even beyond the first battery. As I said, loads of "Ifs" still surrounding that, but this has the potential to be a game changer, especially since Ukraine seems to be running low on S-300 missiles.

Edit - Here's the link to the source: Deutschland will Flugabwehrsystem an die Ukraine liefern – Iris-T SLM aus deutscher Produktion – Augen geradeaus! (German, obviously)

I think the only game-changer in Ukraine will be something that can target the Russian artillery safely. ie. when Ukraiinian howitzers can chuck shells at the Russian howitzers while remaining out of range. I thought the 777s were supposed to bring that about, maybe I've misunderstood something.