Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Based on the current Daft.ie rentals available, they may have problems hiring 250 people.

2 rentals available in Athlone and surrounds today.

Did ericsson announce that they would be building housing for these workers as well? Because they'll need to build themselves if they want to bring workers in who aren't already living around Athlone.

The word is that they are buying a set of new builds and renting them to their workers. Very dissapointing if true, just more of the same, big money chasing private builds and pushing the ordinary Joe soap out.

The world is crying out for a recession

German and Spanish inflation hit new highs

German inflation hitting a 60 year high, further eroding the savings of the more prudent Germans; putting more pressure on the ECB to raise rates and more than just a half/one percent. For a time it will cost more for a mortgage in Ireland, before demand destruction kicks in (as it has already done in the rental market).

40k work permits, 30 odd thousand Ukrainians so far( could be double that by the end of the year) plus 10s of thousands other immigrants.

Not an issue pussyhands as the housing minister met builders representatives recently to get them to work longer hours!! From today's times, a mere 122k social houses required now!--

Housing & Planning

Number needing social housing ‘may be double’ estimates, at 122,000

Yes - with new build to rent developments seeking €2k+ pm for 1 beds and €2.5k+ pm for 2 beds etc. it is clear that only the housing bodies and charities are engaging with new builds. I have not seen many new developments in Daft the last few months advertised for rent, but see the older ads for new build rentals that are not shifting (Quayside Quarter, Capital Dock, Opus etc.). Similar with student accommodation; we are aware there is a chronic student accommodation shortage, yet there are dozens of ads for whole blocks of student accommodation - however, they are seeking €1k+ pm for a bed in a dorm.

By the way, all new BTR cannot be described as being for the top end of the market when it seeks €2k for a 1 bed etc. and this is where we have gotten to the last couple of years. This trend will reverse fairly quickly when it gets going but the State is doing its absolute best to prop the whole thing up; it is borderline criminal because it involves borrowing from future generations to prop up the property portfolios of the current generation; and to claim that these rents are sustainable it to live in cuckoo, magic money tree land.

Hopefully the Irish public are more clued in then our English neighbours. Because this is within our sovereign control and is a choice our elected officials are making. Nothing to do with EU free movement etc.

I did not in any way insult peoples jobs or lives, can you please point out where I did that?

What I am pointing out is the 'train of thought' that, a house has to be in a 'million euro area' to be a nice home. Are you saying anyone that has a home outside of that area, cannot be a nice home? really? take a good look at both of your statements. They are not necessary, and a 'dream home' implies that it's a 'dram' a 'fantasy', but a realistic home is one withing your scale of affordability, regardless of it being 200k or 900k, so please, do not tell me my house is not nice, just because it isnt selling for a million. take a step back, think about why you feel this particular house/area not being in someones affordability range, means their lives are ruined.

Regarding the market going mad, houses have gone up in the last 3 years everywhere in the world, as can be seen on every economic and accommodation forum, however, inflation and the price of materials has skyrocketed, and the price to build a house, including labor as well as materials has skyrocketed. One thing that we may have to look at this is, this is the new normal, housing is, and always has been , one of the best hedges against inflation. While the market may soften, even drop, it does not mean that the current price of a house is not right. Wages are going up all over the world, they have to, to be able to support the rising cost of living, this will support the rising cost of everything, and it will balance out.

A company was selling at 15 p/e, then it stops selling as many items, but as inflation hits, the value of the stock is now worth more on a dollar/euro value, but not necessarily producing or selling more.

While you may take offence, I did not call you an imbecile, but, that way of thinking that you've described cannot be described in any positive way, maybe I'll rephrase it, and call it 'foolish/silly thinking'.

If it's out of ones budget, and they are stretching to pay for it, can you really encourage that as a way to having a good quality of life?

I'm baffled, I actually have a headache thinking that this is the way people think, after seeing what was happening only 10 years ago.🚫🤷‍♂️

Small landlords forced out of the game in California. Same story as here, tenant protections make it disadvantageous to stay in business. Institutionals scoop up the housing stock, they can scale the risks.

I think there is a contradiction in what you're saying.

In theory these large corporations are stable but they allowed to get away with bad behaviour.

If they are allowed to push small competitors out of the market and gobble up their assets with state help now (I don't accept that this is only a series of coincidences) then what will they be like after massive consolidation of wealth and power?

These institutionals could be the faceless slumlords of the future.

What I've found from experience is that large corporations tend to have impersonal mechanisms in place which make wiggle room impossible. At least with a small landlord you can argue the toss.

The other issue is that landlordism will no longer be a business prospect for ordinary people. Only big business can profit off this real estate gold rush.

Interesting that this is happening in several 'blue states' simultaneously: California, New York, New Jersey, Ireland.

FG and FF definietly are not going to do anything to help the housing crisis now. Last thing they want is for SF to get in and reap the rewards of anything they set in motion.

They are more likely happy to make it worse now to set it up for the next government to fail.

I know a few people working in Ericsson. They are 100% wfh and people can work from wherever they like in Ireland.

Also they have a strategy now to poach staffr from other companies on the basis of their WFH policy. I think that will work too. Many people would be very happy to quit a job where they couldnt wfh 5 days a week to one where they could. all other things being equal.

Exactly that; this corporate tax windfall is not going to exist very soon so what will be there to pick up the slack? More State borrowing? Unlikely, when we are already ridiculously indebted following the bank bailout and recovery (including covid) phases. The State will quite simply have to cut back significantly on its spending and raise taxes.

But workers will rightly protest and get onto the streets when this increase in taxes comes as they will be saying "hey, why not make more aggressive public spending cuts, than raising taxes on us as we did not benefit from any meaningful tax cuts when the going was good?". There will be no accountability for the waste in public spending and failure to invest in a more sustainable economy, which would have included ensuring the property market functioned properly (i.e. it did not increase to Celtic Tiger levels again and consisted of adequate sized homes, reasonably priced and had a lot of supply where it was needed), as property is typically one of, if not the, largest expenditures people have. Knowing the Irish electorate however, they will not call for the heads of politicians that squandered the low interest borrowing and corporate/income tax windfall of the last decade; instead they will suck it up and grumble. Then, and only then after everything is gone, will there be a change in how we go forward with less of a focus on a few MNCs and working to ensuring more of a diversified and sustainable economy.

This is the tragedy when we should, the last few years, have borrowed massively to fund infrastructure projects on a large scale as well as investing in huge home building projects which would ensure that the property market is not in a bubble once again, with the borrowing (from future generations, as with the bailout) being used to re-inflate the market rather than expanding it and ensuring that housing costs did not increase materially from their 2012-2015 levels after the economy got out of recession (2013 was when we said goodbye to a recession and should not have been so pathetic with our cap in hand going out to international investors to carve up the wealth of the country for themselves and also ensuring that the housing costs did not keep soaring). In the same way I was pulling my hair out then, I am pulling my hair out now to say that we still have time to, not avoid a hard landing, but at least invest in the period that will come after the economic slump.