Recession predictions

The fateful inverted yield curve…

Is it just Netflix or is it the start of wider trend as earnings drop due to a reduction in disposable income due to higher costs thanks to inflation/rate rises

Is that not just down to supply finally hitting the market. Maybe a coincidence but waiting since oct for new car and will only be delivered June/July as there was no stock available anywhere.

Really???

Ah here in fairness it is well known that car manufacturers have/had supply chain issues/part shortages and were not able to keep up. Plenty of articles on it.

Also From ford Q1 report

"In Europe, first quarter 2022 wholesales decreased 9% from a year ago, primarily reflecting the impact of supply constraints on production, including semiconductors."

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000037996/000003799622000024/f-20220331.htm

Britain is claiming full employment, more vacancies than there are on the dole.

Question is how many jobs are gig economy, low grade now. How many vacancies are because the wage can't provide a living with inflation of 8% raging.

Headline numbers are one thing, standards of living have fallen for a lot of folk.

Ok not financial services or tech but correlates to Tech. To change plans from tripling headcount to a headcount freeze is a big change in direction on the hiring front. Admittedly they took a hammering last week so may be an outlier but interesting all the same

The biggest concern I would have...our current economic system and the drive to safe the environment don't fit together...

Looking at shopping centre the country over, 50% clothes, 1 big super market, a few coffee shops and smoothie places, a "health"store, 1 or 2 jewelry stores and a pennies...

Genuinely believe the majority of the cloths are poor quality and the ones that are good quality are "too expensive"... jewelry weather expensive or costume seems to go in phases and waves, like my wife has 11 Alex & Ani but I haven't seen her wear any in nearly 3 years, unlike her Dr Martens which she wears whenever she's able to...

My BIL is the same, he has shoes made in sweet shops in Asia that his paid over €500 for, but sure after 1 year they are starting to fall apart...I have a leather pair of shoes/booth(€100) that I have over 8 years and typically wear on a Saturday & Sunday every week still good as new, got the sole replaced last year for €30, good quality and great value in fairness

The whole fashion industry and marketing of that industry is detrimental to the environment as there is a significant level of transport and waste...

But the economy needs these things to generate jobs and tax/rents/rates...

If governments want to reduce carbon and pollution, they need to have a proper look at the current model, also the amount of tat in places like Tiger-Tiger, Deals and Lidl, stuff that is literally just rubbish or a novelty...

Pennies pays well, but most other retail jobs pay very poorly with conditions varying for horrific to good...many people in their mid 20's have had their eyes opened during Covid, and we see Hospitality struggling for staff, I wonder how long before retail starts to suffer...and I hear many people saying, sure they will work if they need the the money...

Well with house prices climbing, I personally know of 3 people who have stopped saving for a mortgage and decided to go on a few holidays and remain living at home, can see this becoming the norm in many parts of the country...

When the recession hits, the recovery could be very very slow, maybe we need industry to build things that actually last and offer after purchase care, unlike the current model of build it cheap, sell it high and know that it'll last 2-3 years and then there back for the newer model(Apple)