BoJo banished - Liz Truss down. Is Rishi next for the toaster? **threadbans in OP**

Surely the writing has to be on the wall now? If they couldnt whip enough MPs to not abstain on the vote then how does he expect to survive potentially 3 more fines, the parliamentary inquiry and the grey report along with a high likelihood of any incriminating photos leaking once the privileges committee gets their hands on them.

I honestly think if the local elections go as badly as expected he will resign before the inquiry even happens.

The irony is that I think he probably could have drawn a line under the whole thing if he had fessed up immediately, admitted an error of judgement, apologised, and blamed it on the stress of the time. It would have been embarrassing, but it would have been survivable, and it would have been old news long before now.

Instead he doubled down by lying and by sacrificing others, prolonged the whole thing endlessly, brought multiple investigations on himself and burned all his political capital.

It's a graphic illustration of the validity of Kennedy's Chappaquiddick Theorem - "The sooner, and in more detail, you give the bad news, the better."

[Younger readers may wish to google "Chappaquiddick".]

Maybe it would. But that's just not his brand. His whole shtick is to tell be big lie with a smirk and his people know its a lie, but they like that he's their guy. If he told the truth he would nver have made it this far in politics because he's not a details guy who reads and understands the issues in minute detail.

He's a buffer. His only real option is to bluff and he bluffed in this situation like he bluffed in every other situation. He couldn't really change tack and tell the truth at the beginning of THIS potential scandal and not do likewise in any other situation.

So I guess the answer to the OP's question is yes then...

Wondering is it Sue Gray's judgements or the actual evidence she cites that is so devastating for Bojo...

Is there a date for the report to be published?

The cynic in me thinks this reporting is to Johnsons advantage. They're preparing the public for how terrible the reprot will be, but then when they actually see the reprot, it probably won't be that bad. Civil service gargon will probably be very tame compared to the media narrative preceeding it. So they will be ready to say "there's nothing new in the report, nothing we didn't already know so let's put it behind us and move on... Ukraine, migrants, cost of living, NI Protocol and Brexit etc.".

Building up expectations of how terrible the reprt will be, weeks in advance of the report, can only serve to dull the impact of the actual report when it finally lands. It might still be too much and Johnson may have to go, but this reporting isn't all bad news for Johnson

I'm sure this has been pointed out before (haven't gone back and read much of the thread), but a huge amount will depend on what happens in the local elections in May. If, as predicted in some quarters, the Tories lose more than 500 seats it will be difficult for him to hang on seeing as he is clearly the cause of the "disquiet in the shires".

Good riddance to the queynt. I have a couple of friends who were at school with him and their stories are exactly what you would expect - lying, bullying and refusal to take responsibility.

Of course he might just brazen it out like he always does.

As I say, exactly what you'd expect. A bully mainly, particularly to one of my friends. He was a senior prefect and one of the last to continue the "fagging" that allowed them to get younger boys to do pretty much anything. Weirdly he was known to be really smart.

The Times piece says the Gray report is 500 pages and 300 photographs, quite a substantial report.

Separately a Daily Mail opinion writer has claimed there are 46 letters of no confidence ready to be submitted after the local elections on May 5th. Not sure how credible that is but if it is true then its just 8 letters short of triggering a vote of no confidence and you'd imagine they will meet that threshold.

Other than that Boris is going to be fined for at least one other party but possibly up to five more.

Kind of like the reverse of this...

It staggers me that not a whisper of this got into the public domain until the Mirror broke the story late last year. Some of these photos/videos must have been circulating on Whatsapp groups and the like. If not one of the Downing Street staffers themselves, would not one of their partners/kids/whoever caught a glimpse of the PM in a comporomising position, took a screengrab and sent it to one of the tabloids or posted it on Instagram to make a few quid or just cause mischief?

Seems to give the lie to the idea that social media makes it much harder to cover up damaging info...

Might be an opening for him in Ukranian politics if the Tories defenestrate him. Already got a plausible Christian name. Boris Ivanovych has a certain ring to it...

Last time I checked the oligarchs got their ivory towers in London under Johnson. Most Russian donations to UK politics goes to the Tories and Johnson was caught at the parties of top Russian politicians.