BoJo banished - Liz Truss down. Is Rishi next for the toaster? **threadbans in OP**

The almost definite Wakefield by-election in late May/June, which will almost definitely go back to Labour, could be a point for the knives to come back out.

Ultimately whether Johnson - or any other PM - has to resign is not up to them. It's up to the party.

As has been much discussed, the Tory party has a formal process for removing party leaders. So far as I know it has never been operated to remove a party leader. And yet party leaders have frequently been removed, by having senior figures point out to them the necessity for resignation in terms which they could not ignore. That's how Margaret Thatcher was removed and, if such a system can work to remove her, it can work to remove anyone. Other party leaders who were persuaded to resign when they didn't want to, with a formal vote being necessary to force them out, include Theresa May.

So, Johnson can't simply decide not to resign. He has to continually persuade his party to stomach that decision. The fact that he has been able to do so up to now does not necessarily mean that he can continue to do so indefinitely.

He's build such a reputation as a gobshyte, and the opposition portray him as such a gobshyte, they he's just going to play the gobshyte and genuinely stand up and stick to the story that he didn't know he was at a party. Nobody will believe it, but he's built up enough deny ability through being portrayed as a gobshyte for so long, that his peoppel will go along with it. The time between all the elements means the impact is softened. The emergence of the news at first, the Sue Gray report being neutered by the police investigation, the Sue Gray report being neutered again by purdah before the local elections. It all drags it out and spreads the anger instead of it coming in one big spike.

The Lebedev issue might be a bigger stor and I think they have ot release thst by the end of April which is a week before the local elections. And coupled with a poor showing in the local elections, he could be in trouble.

It's not as simple as him resigning out of honour or the party pushing him. It's an interplay between him and the party. There was a time when it would be a given that the PM would resign, but Johnson lowers the bar everywhere he goes. He lowers the bar for himself and for those around him.

Listening to Rory Stewart on being invited to Lebedev's Castle in Lake Como, was instructive on how Johnson lowers the bar. Stewart was a foreign minister under Johnson as Secretary of State and Stewart presumed it was a joke that anyone would accept an invitation to the castle of a son of a KGB agent. But Johnson went, and he was fine with other ministers going.

So it's not as simple as jumping or being pushed. There's a negotiation between the pumper and the pushers. Johnson's appeal to his people (both in cabinet and on the street) is that he never asks them to be better. That's massive unspoken appeal to him. Another PM would be gone already. Cameron resigned because he lost Brexit. Johnson survives.

BJ is also due to address the House at 4:30 today. Presumably trying to get it out of the way before PMQs tomorrow.

Id say as well the people of Wakefield are thinking that the first time in 90 years that they vote in a Tory MP he turns out to be a paedo, its back to Labour for us. The latest is the Tories are trying to get Lord Frost to run in the by election which would really give them an opportunity to give a senior Tory a bloody nose, especially as the Brexit he sold them was a pup.

Does anyone know when the Sue Gray report is due to be released? It doesnt look like it is going to arrive before the local elections on May 5th. I think the contents of that report could be what throws a huge douse of petrol on the fire and sparks calls for his resignation again, especially if even more details of the parties come out. We already know staff in no.10 were so drunk that they slept underneath their desks and that they were filling up suitcases with bottles of wine in Waitrose and thats just two details from 16 different parties. Boris was basically running a drinking den during the pandemic, if more of the same details come out in the Gray report the tabloids will have a field day and he will come under huge pressure from the public again.

Starmer really destroyed Bojo in the PMQ's today. Possibly the most amusing PMQ's to date; everytime Johnson paused, someone would shout out "liar!" or "resign!"

Fabricant getting some heat from Starmer, too, about his equivalence of nurses having a snort in a staff room and Bojo's behaviours.

God it was so good to see BJ being destroyed. It was great tv

IMO the Gray report would do most damage if it featured some juicy photos or videos of the PM in mid carouse.

Long enough for what?

It's long enough to mean that a Privileges Committee finding that Johnson has lied won't be published before the local elections, but I think at this stage most voters don't need the Privileges Committee to tell them whether Johnson lied. The division is not between voters who think he lies and those who think he tells the truth; it's between voters who care that he lies and voters who don't.

So I don't think deferring the Privileges Committee investigation will necessarily do very much to shield the Tory party from the consequences of maintaining this bastard in office. What it will do is prolong the agony. The 5 May election results will be what they will be (and my guess is that they will be pretty torrid for the Tories) and the party will still have to face the Privileges Committee investigation, hearings, findings and report, and the debate on this in the House. And the further police fines that are expected. And the publication of the Grey report. And after all that Tory MPs will still be facing Owen Paterson moments where the party leadership is bullying them to ritually humiliate and debase themselves to save the tatters and shreds of Johnson's miserable career. But Johnson will have suffered even further damage than he has already, and have even less political capital to call on.

Johnson isn't trying to delay the vote on whether to investigate because it's a clever wheeze. He's try to delay the vote because he recognises that, poor at that is, at this stage its pretty much all he can do.

For Tory MPs, they need to realise that this is how it's always going to be, now. Johnson is who he is. He has behaved like this all his life. His behaviour is not going to change. His overweening sense of entitlement, his disdain for others, his moral incontinence - none of them are going to change. His future promises of reform will be as meaningless as his past promises of reform. If he survives partygate, some other manifestation of his gross character flaws will be along before much longer. They either commit to spending the whole of the rest of their political careers debasing themselves to protect him, or they show some respect for themselves and find a new leader. If not before 5 May, then after 5 May.

If the vote is won and it goes to an investigation by the Privileges committee then I think he could be toast, not immediately but when they release their findings. What is really missing here is photographic evidence of these parties which he keeps describing as work events when they sound like they were major late night sessions with staff so drunk that they were sleeping under their desks. This is all juxtaposed against these same staff supposed to be running No.10s pandemic response while thousands were dying of Covid.

There exists over 300 photos of these 16 parties which the Privileges committee can expose. If that happens that could be what tips him over the edge, it would be heavy photographic evidence that No.10 was party central during the pandemic all the while Boris was giving Covid briefings to the media at 3pm every day and telling people to stay at home and wash your hands over and over again. Its all these photos that could really expose his hypocrisy. Bonus points if there are photos of staff dancing on office tables in no.10 during a pandemic, it wouldnt surprise me if there is. Out of the 300 photos there is bound to be some in there that the tabloids will have a field day with and they will whip the public into a rage again over the whole sorry mess.