FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

I remember you telling us the same about domestic water charges, and that under E.U directives it was a done deal.

How has that worked out ?

Opinion polls and history. (I think it was a recent RedC poll) They were showing that FFers were more likely to transfer to FG and vice versa. Basically what is happening is a long term merging of FF and FG because FF has moved away from its centrist and Left of centre roots. It was a political movement to some extent and the cumman system meant that it was effectively plugged into all aspects of Irish society. When Ahern and his gang got into power, they destroyed it and Cowen effectively finished it. Rather than locally selected candidates, FFHQ selected/approved candidates became the norm. The double jobbing councillor/TD link was also broken under Ahern. While this was a good thing it also disconnected the Dail's spawning grounds from the Dail. All that's left now for the wannabes and never-weres is the Seanad. Making the leap from council to Dail is much more difficult now.

Ireland used to have a 2.5 party model with Labour being the half party. There were some fringe parties like the PDs and the Greens who were useful to make up the numbers on occasion. In 2013, the political model started to change to a Big Three model and Labour's position begain to collapse. This largely went unnoticed by the political correspondents in the media because none of them have any background in analysis of data and models. The Big Three model is the most complicated because no two of the Big Three parties have enough seats to form a government.

Even as Labour support started to collapse, FG shills on various fora were claiming that Labour's support was around 10%. (FG needed Labour as its half party.) It wasn't. I called the spread on the Big Three parties for the 2016 on another forum. What a lot of people don't seem to understand is that the electorate changes.

Almost half a generation has passed since the bursting of the property bubble. Many of those who grew up in the aftermath of that FF/FG/PD caused economic disaster are now eligible to vote. They aren't voting FF/FG. The FF demographics are older and SF is better supported in the younger demographics. Would you still vote for the incompetent morons (Varadkar, Harris and FG) responsible for the Children's Hospital mess? Would you vote for the morons who nearly destroyed the economy and bailed out their bankster buddies? That's the History that is destroying the FFG vote. People who can't buy a house or find it too expensive to rent in cities like Dublin blame FFG. That's why SF is solidly around 30% in the opinion polls. FF and FG are two Right of centre parties fishing in the same puddle for votes. SF, having effectively taken much of the Left of centre has now moved to the centre and is very much the old style FF. As for "Labour", it is just another YATSE party (Yet Another School Teacher Seeking Election) adored by the Irish Times and RTE and despised by voters. On its current polling figures, it will be lucky to return two TDs after the upcoming GE.

Regards...jmcc

Pure Karma. :) There were some moves among backbenchers a while ago with virtual rubber chicken meetings being held on Zoom. The firing of the Calleary and Cowen to appease FG didn't go down well among the FF backbenchers and Jim O'Callaghan was being considered as a replacement. That wsa before FF polled 5% in the Dublin Bay South bye-election with Deirdre of the Sorrows. I think, from reading various reports, that Martin is becoming increasingly isolated in FF. A few good opinion polls for FF could see it all kicking off again as FFers regain their confidence.

Regards...jmcc

Did Roderick just blurt this out or did he think about what he was saying???

Apart from FF voters, Labour voters. There was a floating vote that used to move between FF and Labour but Labour became too close to FG. The Labour vote was a kind of trickle down vote where its TDs depended mainly on transfers to get elected. When those transfers disappeared (2016) the party effectively disappeared too. As it has been out of power for so long, most voters consider it just another fringe party and are concentrating their preferences on parties that may be in government with a sufficient number of seats. The fear of SF is also going to drive some older FF or FG voters into voting for the devils they know. The most logical thing for FF and FG to do would be to announce an electoral pact and have a joint candidate strategy. Without them, SF could get close to enough seats to form a government with only a few non-SF TDs because FF and FG candidates would fratricide (nightmare scenario for FF/FG) each other with only the poll-topper FF/FG candidates getting elected. The next GE is going to be a rural battle and it would be better for FG to have Coveney as leader (or even Donohoe).

Regards...jmcc

O'Callaghan is an establishment candidate and, more importantly, a Dublin candidate. He was smart enough not to take a junior minister job while he was more suited to the Justice portfolio. Instead, FG gave it to McEntee (not a good move). DBS was a very tricky election because it would have been an easy FG win had Varadkar and his clique of mediocrities not engaged in that fight with Kate O'Connell. I don't tink it was winnable for FF and it was one time where the opinion polls were accurate. The propaganda from RTE and the IT for Bacik helped but the real reason why she won was simply because FG and FF screwed up. That will not happen in the GE. It was wise of FF not to waste too much money on the election.

Calleary always seems to be a follower rather than a leader (much like Martin). Cowen, I think, wants to be the kingmaker and he's a fighter. Eamon O'Cuiv would have been an interesting leader of FF and might well have expanded the FF vote. He was removed as deputy leader by Martin. He had campaigned with an SDLP candidate in an election in the North and the neo-Unionist Martin didn't like that. Willy O'Dea wold have been great for soundbites and arguments. There's something inherently creepy about Martin when he is put under pressure during interviews. He keeps doing his ratman clawing actions. The backroom FF people have tried to coach him but he keeps doing it.

McGrath might be a good leader and, apart from the MILFman incident, seems quite good choice. However, with is background, he might be better in Finance. O'Callaghan is smart and would appeal more to the Dublin element of the FF vote (it lost a lot of votes there).

Regards...jmcc

What's left of their support, which combined has fallen from the heady heights of 86% to just over 40% at the last GE. Poll trends suggest this is still in decline.

Tell us, what data are you basing the supposition that they 'won't' vote for other parties on?

Extraordinary comment, I've long thought this chap completely out of his depth on this particular issue.

Correction- ALL issues

Do they? All I ever hear from real people is complaints about the crippling cost of energy and how the likes of the Green policies are actively making them much much poorer. All stemming from the climate alarmists and their chicken licken narrative of doom. Next election anyhow we will mercifully see a Green wipe out. It can’t come soon enough.

As for the other parties they’ve all bought into this woke green rubbish as they think it’s some kind of vote getter and box tick exercise to look all caring and down with the Grettas with their made in China I phones on Instagram

I've a particular interest, not quite adoption but connected, one of many issues he and his department are supposed to be dealing with so to speak.