Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Do not mention ze war!

And I responded that your observations are very odd to say the least and absolutely not typical for Germany. That's my experience and that others on this thread. You're trying to project an image of Germans that wouldn't cross the road to piss on you if you were on fire because there's a red light and it's utter nonsense. We actually have laws that permit you to break a red light in an emergency. 😉 That's what I can say from living in Germany from 1970 to 1994 and working in a bakery for a few years. The second part, people being a little bit more pushy in Ireland, stems from me living in Ennis, Limerick and Dublin between 1994 and 2016. I even did work in a bakery for a brief time, but that was in Bewley's manufacturing and not in the shop. I was on the road as an printer tech from 2000 to 2009 so I can write books about the crazy sh*t I saw then.

Sure, I get it, there's anti-German sentiment at the moment and people feel compelled to post scutter like Germany being a vassal state to Russia, etc, but let's have a look at the facts:

Germany has rendered €1.83 bn in financial aid since 2014, so for quite some time now. Certainly before this subject became a hot topic of deabte in Irish pubs. The EU has mad €17 bn in aid and credit available, €4 bn came from Germany. There has been more aid made available since this crisis unfolded, to the tune of €1.2 bn, 240 m came from Germany. Keeping in mind this artice is from February.

I don't agree with Scholtz on not sending weapons. No-one does. I completely agree with any criticism of that and the only Germans that agree with this decision are Reichsbürger, Neonazis and crazy people. But the recent development of several people on this thread trying very hard to paint Germany as some kind of Russian agent is nothing short of utter scutter. And they pretty much use the posting style reserved for Putin bots, Trump supporters, QAnon nutbags and other such human debris.

Also, don't forget Switzerland, who manufacture the ammo for the requested German tanks, have made it very clear that they don't want their product to be exported for the purpose of attacking Russia and this does bear further scrutiny:

Wasn't going to reply, given I hadn't logged in for a while when I saw your reply earlier and thread moved on but may as well since people are still rabbiting on about (evils of) Germany (this is almost the Germany thread)...

Yes, I think I understand your point and Russia have something to lose (this applies to all of Russia's oil and gas trade in Europe, all of it is funneling money to Russia, it is one of the biggest trade sanctions left and Germany is the biggest piece of that - so key).

Putting Germany into same category as China and India is misleading at best.

Germany is in the EU. It agreed to, and imposes the EU sanctions on Russia. Germany agreed to and as largest contributor state provides a huge chunk of the EU aid fund to Ukraine. Germany ships weapons to Ukraine (even if one agrees it is not enough). Germany has voted against Russia at the UN.

Now do we need to compare with behaviour of China (neutral, but completely cynical and on side of Russia the so called "no limits" partner + now watching carefully what way the wind blows) or India (plain old self interested neutral)?

Have no problem with fair criticism (Germany == China/India is not this).

I haven't had a chance to read that paper I think you posted. I probably don't have expertise to dispute it anyway (not an economist) but my understanding is it is disputed.

So at the moment I only have my "feelings" to go on that Germanys energy supply is maybe not quite as elastic as they think it is in event Russia is shut out as a supplier immediately. That they are not considering all the secondary impacts of potential shortage of oil and gas (on Germany, and then rippling outward into the rest of the EU + not to mention effects on economies of other Russia dependent countries if this is an EU level embargo on oil and gas). Economic models are not (hard) science as such, economics is still a social science no matter how good they are at maths.

That's not to say maybe it should be done anyway (?for kinds of reasons you give) but let's not take it so lightly or assume the pain will be small. It's not like a Covid shutdown either in that it is (or must be assumed to be) permanent (assuming no politicial changes in Russia).

edit: Repeating myself (so boring...) but I don't think a European energy embargo will end the war either given what seems to be Putin's current committment to it in the face of everything. Putin has loads of old soviet weapons that still kill people and can pay his troops in globally worthless Russian currency and send them to the gulag or give them a bullet if they don't like it.

Someone's getting a bit antsy

I am largely in agreement with you. I disagree slightly on the 1% drop in GDP, I regard that figure as a bit extractum ex asino. Many analysts are of a very different opinion. I find that assertion fancyfull to say the least.

I do, however agree that oil, gas and coal from Russia must be boycotted NOW or even better 2 months ago. Yes, German energy policies have contributet to this mess. And I absolutely criticise the German government, they really dropped the ball and German standing has been damaged in the world. It's very sad and disappointing.

Logging out so I'll have a read of it later thanks. I think "Europe" (the East of it) has gotten big supplies of oil and gas from Russia back into the Soviet times. It's not something that began with Putin's regime, even if Germany's dependence got worse.

I assume & hope getting Germany and all the others off the Russian energy and other Russian natural resources is being worked on hard by those governments (it is maybe dependent on what the Western suppliers or their allies in ME can do).

I just think it is not going to be instant or as simple as you paint it or want it to be (and as added to post in an edit, I am doubtful it would end the war immediately given Putin's determination despite the damage being done to Russia). We all want this to stop now, and wish there was something that could do it.

I wonder how difficult that would be to sabotage. There are a few countries there who would shed no tears to see that gas pipeline disabled so the war gets shortened.

There's nothing mysterious. They slipped on the stairs, fell out the window, and their neck got caught in a rope that happened to be hanging on an apple tree in the garden.

The main issues for me with Poland and even more so Hungary are their unacceptable democratic backsliding. The EU has to and I am sure will make sure cast iron guarantees and clauses against that happening are part of any future accession treaties for any country coming into the EU be it Ukraine or otherwise.

Do the eastern European countries currently in the EU have many economic and structural issues including Poland absolutely they do. But that is to be expected after they were occupied by the former Russian Empire/USSR for 50 odd years. It is going to take them time. Look at us economically and structurally when we got into the EU. We were getting massive hand outs from Brussels for many years and now have progressed and are actually a net contributor to the EU budget.

I just went to the Express.co.uk link, holy f*

What an absolute scarefest of a rag, its actually Jarring to read. Each headline is Disaster, Horror, nightmare, Man kicked to death, food shortage crisis, death, illness, disease, rage, fear, crime, paedophile.

Jaysus if you were reading that every day you wouldnt leave the house.

No wonder they voted for Brexit.

Sorry about the sources, I just used two handy links to confirm the story, other sources have the same story.

https://www.google.com/search?q=Druzhba+oil+depot

None of which are credible.

Well it took us 40 odd years of being an EU member to become a net contributor so I am sure it will take a fair while yet. I would disagree with you as regards to the opinions of other eastern European EU member states opinions about Ukraine. The Eastern European EU countries have largely supported Ukraine getting membership quickly. Now that is not going to happen but a normal lengthy accession process seems reasonable to me and I think that is what we will see. It will probably be about 10 years or so as it was with Poland after they applied before Ukraine officially becomes part of the EU but I do think that is what we will see.

As for the whole "with us or against us mentality" I think there is some justification for that in the here and now in the sense that IMHO what we are seeing is an existential threat not just to Ukraine but to democracy and free and open societies in general IMHO.