French Pres thread -2022

Rjd2 · 24-04-2022 7:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118968649#Comment_118968649

Macron won as easy as the polls suggested, about 58% give or take.

Slightly better for LePen but she would have been hoping to have got 45+ which is highly unlikely.

swiwi_ · 24-04-2022 7:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118957516#Comment_118957516

58 vs 42 roughly. Not close. A leopard doesn’t change its spots and a lot of French just don’t trust Le Pen rather than fully support Macron.

Rjd2 · 24-04-2022 7:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118970854#Comment_118970854

Looks like so-so turnout which is perfect for Macron as the most solid voting base the boomers love Macron and loathe Le Pen.

breezy1985 · 24-04-2022 7:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118970854#Comment_118970854

Both far left and far right candidates are anti EU. It would be interesting to see a radical pro EU candidate in the final round. Personally I still think Hollande got a rough deal and he was about as close to what I am describing.

Rjd2 · 24-04-2022 7:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118970868#Comment_118970868

Melenchon v Macron would have been much more interesting, I reckon their is about 30% of the voting public who will never vote LePen which makes a win near impossible, Melenchon has his critics but I don't think their is as much resistance towards him.

breezy1985 · 24-04-2022 7:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118970885#Comment_118970885

It would just be the opposite of today where all the right and centre right line up to stop Melenchon.

I'm left and I wouldn't get behind Melenchon vs Macron. Too many populist BS policies in with the good ones

pixelburp · 24-04-2022 7:35pm

I do not support Macrons politics but if that exit poll is true this is a huge relief. Did I read right that this is the first consecutive term in the history of the French Presidency?

The family of LePen is a total stain on french and European politics, the sooner they're made extinct the better. If there's any justice the Russian links will sink her - but then she hardly got nuked in the polls either. I still worry she'll eventually come good - she has time.

breezy1985 · 24-04-2022 7:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118970981#Comment_118970981

No Mitterrand and Chiraz both did it too but he is the first to also have a parliamentary majority whereas the other 2 lads blamed their problems on a legislative block.

Heraclius · 24-04-2022 7:43pm

The politics nerd in me wishes french elections were like the Irish/US and UK ones where we could be watching results for hours.

Nody · 24-04-2022 7:46pm

Le Pen has conceded the election.

breezy1985 · 24-04-2022 7:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118971019#Comment_118971019

I'm the same. Would have loved a night of Le Pen fans circle jerking about"the bookies" like the US election night

Itssoeasy · 24-04-2022 8:28pm

Just watching France 24 and a national rally MEP compared Le Pen to general De Gaulle. That’s a big claim.

breezy1985 · 24-04-2022 8:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118971236#Comment_118971236

Both were gobshtes in fairness. De Gaulle much like Churchill wasnt all that great when you take the war out of the equation.

Heraclius · 24-04-2022 8:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118971273#Comment_118971273

I think he deserves some credit for helping bring the French war in Algeria to an end without a coup in France by the right wing officers in the army.

breezy1985 · 24-04-2022 8:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118971294#Comment_118971294

Ya but he done it by stepping in as the president they wanted. The reason it was him and no one else is because it suited the right wing. He was essentially appointed by coup.

quokula · 24-04-2022 8:52pm

I wasn’t following this very closely, I assumed Macron was going to win comfortably and the media were playing up Le Pen’s chances like they always do, seems like that is what’s happened again.

Fr Tod Umptious · 24-04-2022 8:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118971337#Comment_118971337

Same as that, it seems to happen every French election.

A Le Pen does well the first day, and is well beaten by the establishment candidate in the runoff

breezy1985 · 24-04-2022 8:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118971348#Comment_118971348

Its a stupid system in fairness. I understand why the old parliamentary system didn't work in a batsht political landscape like France but surely a straight up single vote is better than this 2 round thing

Rjd2 · 24-04-2022 8:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118971337#Comment_118971337

Aye after Trump/Brexit all the attention was on Le Pen so it was so easy to churn out articles about how supposedly close she was to winning back in 2017 even though it was incredibly unlikely, somewhat similar this time round even though bar a nice week of polls in the lead up to the first round her chances were minimal.

If the niece runs next time expect her to get all the column inches as for an international audience like how Marion was she will be the candidate most people will want to read about.

AMKC · 24-04-2022 10:40pm

Absolutely delighted the Emmaneul MC Cron is back in and that wicked witch Le pen did not get into power. We have all been through enough the last decade with that other idiot who was in Power in America who's names I shall not mention as he does not deserve his name mentioned but basically he was a Clown with a Capital C. She would have took Franch out of the Euro and made all out futures very uncertain but thankfully she did not get into Power so good news good to hear and see.

Brussels Sprout · 25-04-2022 12:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118971363#Comment_118971363

A single vote would be a terrible system. In a crowded field you could have a candidate winning with less than a third of the vote. That is a sure fire way to end up with an extremist candidate eventually.

The second round acts as a way to moderate the electorate as people who voted for the eliminated candidates in the first round get to vote against extremist candidates.

Donald Trump was able to win the Republican nomination in 2016 due to those primaries not having this kind of system in place. It was a massively crowded field and the combination of his name recognition and his populist demagoguery was enough to win loads of states with less than 40% of the vote.

L1011 · 25-04-2022 12:50pm

...or you do your single vote the way we do it, which would probably deliver the same outcome (but could also have let Mechelon in; or more people would have voted for Hidalgo/Pecresse to begin with, or any other range of outcomes - but almost definitely not Le Pen)

pixelburp · 25-04-2022 1:00pm

Isn't debating the system also avoiding the discussion about why LePen has got increasingly closer to the Presidency in the first place? She's only 53 so would have a few more elections within her and it didn't seem like the Russian Connection cratered her chances. Clearly there's some discontentment going on in regional France and has kept her relevant - and more popular than the last time. Is it just 'cos she's promising Jam Tomorrow or is France truly indulging in the right-wing, prejudicial politics she's pretending to be no part of?

Brussels Sprout · 25-04-2022 1:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118973577#Comment_118973577

We don't do a single vote. All our elections are PR-STV so anyone winning single seat elections (Presidential or by-election) needs to get over 50% of the vote or be the last person standing. That is a big moderating factor.

ambro25 · 25-04-2022 1:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118973630#Comment_118973630

Bit of both (jam tomoz + ‘masqued FN tropes’), I think, aided and abetted by the sentiment expressed overleaf by swiwi_ in post #97.

And probably more complex still, e.g. there’s just as much disinformation peddled by ultras at both ends of the political spectrum in France, as in many other countries (US, UK, Poland, …), all lapped up by the same angry-at-everything mob and echoed in the MSM for ratings.

That’s the demand-creation side of LePen’s (and similar assorted others’) political market, and a fundamental issue -still- in modern day democracies, for the effect which it inevitably returns at ballot boxes.

breezy1985 · 25-04-2022 2:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118973630#Comment_118973630

She barely made it to the second round so I would say it's the jam thing. Only Macron couldn't go down that route

L1011 · 25-04-2022 5:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118973714#Comment_118973714

The S in that stands for Single, remember.

For a one seat outcome it's more often referred to as Instant Runoff, designed to give the same results as this type of runoff but on a single ballot.

Rjd2 · 25-04-2022 5:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118974035#Comment_118974035

I think she has done well last two times to get to the final 2, Macron and Melenchon no matter your views on them are formidable.

She clearly has skills as a politician as she has increased her vote share last few times, but sadly for her she seems yet again after reaching the final 2 to have finished poorly, her absurd Nato comments ..... and obviously the 2017 "debate " performance.

Fascinating to see how she progresses, their has to be an element of her base who want some fresh blood, but she doesn't seem keen on going anywhere.

ancapailldorcha · 25-04-2022 5:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118975298#Comment_118975298

As is clear from the example of the UK, being a good campaigner does not equate to being a good politician or a good leader.

Le Pen seems to have a decent nose for what she can and can not get away with but her clear fascist sympathies have been her undoing though not by much. I can't see her ever winning. Someone like her sans baggage, sure but not her. She's tainted by her past just like her father.

Rjd2 · 25-04-2022 5:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118975393#Comment_118975393

Yeah if she runs again I think that would be her 4th time in a row ffs.

The appeal of Trump for many he was new and anti establishment. Le Pen may say otherwise but she is an establishment politician who has been around for what seems like forever and has lost way to much previously. They don't share policies but for me her running next time would feel a bit like Hilary in 2024, even the devout would want something newer.

French Pres thread -2022

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