Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Wibbs · 20-04-2022 07:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118952694#Comment_118952694

Yep. Plus on top of thinking the ruling classes of both nations were keen on giving up power, the big mistake the West made was to assume and arrogantly in many ways that both nations wanted to be liberal democracies like ours. It's a laudable if naive aim on the surface, but again it assumes other cultures want that and assume they think we have things better than them. Since WW2 and what that led to, the drive in Europe in particular has been to see any form of nationalism and social conservatism as very very bad, which is understandable, but many cultures beyond Europe; Russia, many nations in Africa, China, the Middle East, most of East Asia do not feel the same way to nearly the same degree and see much of it as either a bit mad or weakness in our "Western culture".

The American Dream has certainly lost its lustre for many onlookers. Their various wars for "freedom" when it was clear oil was a major factor in most of them, their ever increasing wealth gap, gun violence including mass shootings by nutters, a mad homeless problem(search youtube for living in a van/car and its almost entirely Americans), bugger all social support, where they need their army to go into some poor areas to set up field hospitals to give basic care to citizens because a headache pill or whatever costs a weeks wages(compare the cost of insulin for diabetics in the US and pretty much anywhere else), never mind the seemingly deepening divides politically and along ethnic lines. I personally wouldn't want a bar of living in the place myself, whereas if this was the 1960's I'd be on the next boat.

goldenmick · 20-04-2022 07:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118952849#Comment_118952849

You jest, but is Putin posturing, boasting, threatening or what?

God alone knows how many billions these enormous nuclear weapons have cost for Russia to develop and produce. And I believe Putin would be itching to try out his "new toys".

For all that certain posters on here shy away from confrontation with Putin because of the nuclear threat, I've said it before and I'll say it again.... HE NEEDS NO EXCUSE to use these weapons. The continuing supply of arms to Ukraine by the West. Failure to succeed in his war in Ukraine. Russia ultimately being reduced to a shambles on the world stage. Sanctions eventually totally crippling Russia. The loss of global trade and manufacturing devastation. The exclusion of Russians from an ever growing list of places, sports, etc. I could go on... Anything could set him off. Absolutely anything.

Apparently just a single one of these new massive nukes would completely destroy the UK and Ireland.

If the West has no intention of ever intervening, and is content to continue letting Putin do exactly as he pleases, then we had better hope that senior army figures or those close to or within his inner circle eventually decide that Putin himself is doing more to destroy Russia than anything the West could have come up with, and he gets taken out.

There are hit men, mercenaries, special ops and elite forces that would have had opportunities to terminate him previously. We've now let it get to the stage where he's likely untouchable unless it's done from within.

I catch up with the overnight news each morning with a genuine feeling of apprehension. It's quite chilling how Putin is increasingly threatening to use the nuclear option.

And for anyone who's thinking of replying alone the lines of: ...He's only bluffing, Putin's family would also die, Russia would be destroyed, etc... then please don't bother as we've heard it all before. The bottom line is that I don't believe Putin cares. He believes he's some kind of messiah or demigod on a crusade for the motherland, and if Russia goes down the pan he'll take as many of us with it as he can.

corkie · 20-04-2022 07:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118952976#Comment_118952976

I know your just been sarcastic of Russia's capabilities? But did you read any of the linked post's about it?

Russia has test-launched its new intercontinental ballistic missile - which Vladimir Putin has boasted can overcome any defence system.

The Sarmat missile was launched from Plesetsk in the country's northwest and hit targets in the Kamchatka Peninsula in the far east. ~~ Link

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-28_Sarmat

Wibbs · 20-04-2022 07:33PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118952792#Comment_118952792

They've already gained and kept far more real estate in the Donbas and the Crimea corridor than they have in their push for Kyiv. And 100kms is plenty far enough if your supply lines can't stretch that far in enough time. It quite clearly was and they've seen that(took their time) and have pivoted to an area of Ukraine they think and have more chance of winning, at least in the short term.

Russia unlike America has a military system far more based on defence than overseas attack. America is pretty much the complete opposite and they have incredible logistics and the ability to prosecute a war almost anywhere on the planet and in double quick time. In another dimension if America thousands of miles away wanted to take Ukraine and launched their attack at the same time as Russia did, most of Ukraine's military infrastructure would have been taken out within the first ten days, air superiority would be a given and anything bigger than a boxkite would be targetted, even before they put a boot or track on the ground and the country, or at least the centres that matter would almost certainly have fallen by now. If putin didn't have the nuclear threat I'd be willing to bet if the Americans said they were at war and were joining Ukraine, Russia after some posturing would sue for peace in double quick time.

20-04-2022 07:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118953041#Comment_118953041

There is ZERO proof Putin "NEEDS NO EXCUSE".

All evidence points to him never using a nuclear weapon in attack. There is plenty of evidence of him using conventional weapons.

eire4 · 20-04-2022 07:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118952694#Comment_118952694

Excellent article. Thanks for posting that. Tend to agree with that too.

Strazdas · 20-04-2022 07:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118952997#Comment_118952997

Every neutral observer is of the opinion that Russian casualties are much higher than those of Ukraine.

Zelensky admitted to CNN that about 3000 Ukrainian troops have been killed and perhaps 10,000 injured, which sounds very plausible.

The US reckons that at least 10,000 Russian troops have died, but many observers suspect the real number could be a lot higher (perhaps 15k or 20k or even more).

swiwi_ · 20-04-2022 07:38PM

Hmmm. I see Ukraine doesn’t recognise Kosovo as an independent state.

Say my name · 20-04-2022 07:40PM

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1516457338722471949?t=cXVpeCuXXq88tqLmIF3f5w&s=19

Some of the Agricultural machinery stolen by the Russian military in Ukraine has been located in Chechnya.

goldenmick · 20-04-2022 07:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118953096#Comment_118953096

There's a first time for absolutely anything.

All evidence points to him never using a nuclear weapon in attack

And that is for the simple reason that he has never previously needed to. But in the nuclear age, Russia has never previously dug itself into such a big hole as the one it's in now.

20-04-2022 07:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118953041#Comment_118953041

Do you know how much its cost to maintain a nuclear arsenal?

If you look at US figures,and also at the russian economy,you will understand that its impossible for Russia to keep their nuclear arsenal operational and maintained.

The Congressional Budget Office is required by law to project the 10-year costs of nuclear forces every two years. This report contains CBO’s projections for the period from 2021 to 2030.

If carried out, the plans for nuclear forces delineated in the Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) and the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) fiscal year 2021 budget requests, submitted in February 2020, would cost a total of $634 billion over the 2021–2030 period, for an average of just over $60 billion a year, CBO estimates.
Almost two-thirds of those costs would be incurred by DoD; its largest costs would be for ballistic missile submarines and intercontinental ballistic missiles. DOE’s costs would be primarily for nuclear weapons laboratories and supporting activities.
The current 10-year total is 28 percent higher than CBO’s most recent previous estimate of the 10-year costs of nuclear forces, $494 billion over the 2019–2028 period.
Almost half (about 49 percent) of the $140 billion increase in that total arises because the 10-year period covered by the current estimate begins and ends two years later than the period covered by the 2019 estimate. Thus, the period now includes two later (and more expensive) years of development in nuclear modernization programs. Also, costs in those two later years reflect 10 years of economywide inflation relative to the two years that drop out of the 10-year projection; that factor (in the absence of other changes to programs) accounts for about one-fourth of the 49 percent increase.
About 36 percent of the $140 billion increase is projected to occur from 2021 to 2028—the years included in both this estimate and the 2019 estimate. That increase stems mainly from new plans for modernizing DOE’s production facilities and from DoD’s modernization programs moving more fully into production

And looking at the state of the Russian army and Navy i doubt Putins arsenal is as great as he wants us to believe.

However i do agree that he is well capable lf using one if he feels threatened,all it takes is one warhead,but does Putin have enough to counter a retaliation strike from NATO is the question i would like to ask.

Thats where he is bluffing i think

shillyshilly · 20-04-2022 07:47PM

I still reckon he's dying.... given he was anticipating everything to be done by now, with a huge May victory parade, I wouldn't say he has too long....

I think when the doctor eventually tells him there's nothing more they can do (possibly the second or third doctor, as the other will have had heart attacks out a 10th floor window)... he'll think "f it" and push the nuke button...

where, I don't know. Even tactical nukes don't make sense in Ukraine, and area he is trying to take, unless he is going with an area denial approach...

With N.Korea's posturing, wouldn't surprise me if he go them to do it and gave Kimmy a nice cushy bunker

Wibbs · 20-04-2022 07:53PM

rogber · 20-04-2022 07:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118952796#Comment_118952796

In other words you've no evidence

Furze99 · 20-04-2022 08:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118953169#Comment_118953169

Yourself and Goldenmick have this idea that Putin can just press a button and launch a nuclear missile. From anything I've heard/ read on such matters, it don't work like that thankfully in that there is a chain of command. Others have to take, presumably agree with and follow his orders. None of that is a given if there is no immediate threat to Russian territory from a nuclear attack. Big difference between using nuclear weapons in defence and using them as an offensive weapon.

rogber · 20-04-2022 08:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118953169#Comment_118953169

You could the next James Patterson if you just turn that into a novel

goldenmick · 20-04-2022 08:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118953142#Comment_118953142

I get where you're coming from.

But Putin's Russia doesn't operate within any rules and regulations. Putin himself is alleged to be worth over $20 billion. Most of his oligarchs and cronies are probably not that far behind. And the majority of Russians are impoverished and living in the Stone Age.

Russia is not far behind China in the secrecy league table, and putting aside the Russian nuclear arsenal (which I didn't refer to), these RS-28 Sarmat missiles they've developed have obviously been completed by using money from budgetary cuts everywhere and a great deal of illicit funding.

As you say, one nuke is all it takes. But unlike you I don't think he is bluffing. I think he has a certain level of humiliation that he (and Russia by association) are prepared to descend to. After that, well...

shillyshilly · 20-04-2022 08:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118953235#Comment_118953235

I don't think that... I mean push the button as a figure of speech...

He has enough yes men around him that it could be as easy as just giving the order, you would hope more than likely not though...

Hence the N.Korea approach..

Putin is a very small man with a very big ego, he'll want to be remembered for something before he pops his clogs, and it won't be the shitstorm he left his country in and his advance in Ukraine... with so many losses, even if he took Donbas and Luhansk, it'll be very hard to justify that the losses were worth it

Integritate · 20-04-2022 08:14PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118952753#Comment_118952753

It really boggles the mind that western democracies is the primary reason why China and Russia are now so powerful. Our appetite for cheap plastic products and cheap fossil fuels has caused irreparable damage. What genius thought it would be a good idea to allow a despotic Russian leader the decision on whether or not our lights stay on? I will come back to that question.

What can we do about China? Maybe if we collectively stop buying their landfill products then maybe they will not be the Number 1 economic superpower in 6 years (largest economy by 2028). While I’m just an ant in all of this, I deliberately make an effort not to buy Chinese products. While I understand that some core components can originate in China, my hope is that it would be Taiwanese rather than from the Chinese mainland. If we all do something similar, then it would be impactful.

Going back to Russian oil, gas, coal, and other minerals from that country; I look at Germany and point a sizeable finger at them. Their behaviour during and prior to the invasion of Ukraine is appalling. There is something inherently wrong as I look at the stock markets all around the world today only to see that the German DAX the best performer of all the major indices. Something really stinks about that, and no doubt there is a correlation to Russian oil and gas imports.

goldenmick · 20-04-2022 08:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118953235#Comment_118953235

Seeing as you've mentioned me...

I'm fully aware of nuclear launch protocol but you're forgetting one important thing - Putin rules Russia with an iron fist and has done for 20 years. He's surrounded himself with "yes" men, and they, as well as everyone else, are absolutely terrified of him.

The chain of command in Russia for nuclear launch is likely peopled by those he trusts most. If you can get 15 years for waving a placard in a street then I would imagine death by a thousand cuts, or something similar, awaits anyone daring to refuse his direct order. It's a scary situation that's for sure.

Ash.J.Williams · 20-04-2022 08:16PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118952883#Comment_118952883

Not even maidens playing harps ?

Ash.J.Williams · 20-04-2022 08:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118953241#Comment_118953241

Nuclear annihilation is probably one of his ways out without humiliation

cnocbui · 20-04-2022 08:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118953203#Comment_118953203

Lol: https://lansinginstitute.org/2021/02/18/russia-enhances-its-spy-hub-in-ireland/

Ash.J.Williams · 20-04-2022 08:21PM

Germany are preparing for the collapse of the ICE car market and probably need Russian raw materials to evolve into the next generation of motor

jmreire · 20-04-2022 08:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118952657#Comment_118952657

.

Donald Trump · 20-04-2022 08:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118953311#Comment_118953311

Too politically charged. They were going to suggest it but the Ukrainian fella misheard and thought they were talking about Maidan. (The square where they had the protests/revolution)