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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭ronivek


    I mean it's possible it was a Russian chemical attack but we also have to remember these guys are holed up in what is a massive steel production plant which has been known for high levels of pollution and lax safety protocols.

    The fact they seem to be talking about three victims who are in "satisfactory" condition suggests it might be more likely they inhaled a bunch of steel dust or asbestos or coke dust or something similar.

    It also should be said that the West isn't going to move on claims of chemical weapons use without significant amounts of corroboration; I just don't see how that happens in Mariupol unless Russians deploy large chemical units and start widespread attacks.

    And even more depressing is the fact that I suspect the West's reaction to chemical attacks will be... yet more ineffective sanctions. They'll probably sanction chemical companies in Russia "associated with Russian arms industry" or some other nonsense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭ronivek


    Why should you need to be convinced? I mean if anything it should be easier to justify giving Ukraine equipment which isn't battle ready; no? I bet they would take them even just to start getting their mechanics/trainers familiar with them as compared to Soviet gear.

    Also German industry has stated they have some 50 tanks and 60 IFVs they can recommission and start providing to Ukraine within weeks; but Germany won't authorise these transactions. Granted Ukraine needs help sooner than 6 weeks but they also need to assume Russia is still going to be squatting in their country for the foreseeable future.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭ronivek


    A well-known British soldier ("Johnny", former YPG and current Ukrainian Marine) fighting in Mariupol got word out that his unit has been forced to surrender due to no food and no ammunition:




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    They will be facing certain death at the hands of the Russians , disappeared to face sham trials in Russia for crimes committed against Russia



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,553 ✭✭✭Fiery mutant


    I don't see a good ending for jonny. As a brit who volunteered to fight for Ukraine, I can see the Russians looking to torture and make an example of him.

    I hope he makes it out alive.

    We should defend our way of life to an extent that any attempt on it is crushed, so that any adversary will never make such an attempt in the future.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,475 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    It's horrific but probably true. Surrender is a death sentence. But what choice, no relief, no supplies, no hope of a breakthrough. Its just a sh1tty situation all round.

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Of course there will. What do you think is going to happen here, unconditional surrender?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,337 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Getting into armchair general territory here when I'm not even one and should leave it to others, but that does seem a waste of their military's time and resources (messing with some old Western weapons that they don't know how to maintain and that may/may not work for them in battle, just to learn about them?). Assuming this could drag on, would seem more logical to send some reservists/new people if they can be spared (possibly? Ukraine has basically called up the entire fighting age male population?) out to Europe or US to do military training using some of these bigger, more complex Western weapons [kind of things people here say should be sent "now" - tanks, artillery systems, large air defence systems, maybe even some aircraft], or get the training to become part of the big infrastructure that is no doubt needed in the background away from fighting to keep them fueled up/armed and working well. Then such weapons could be supplied and make a difference.

    There does (according to the media) seem to be disagreements about feasibility between the German govt. and arms makers over some of those heavier weapons like old tanks/tracked fighting vehicles (what needs to be done to actually get the equipment ready + how long it will take, the actual ability of Ukrainians to use and maintain it etc. without a lot of training). Don't know who to believe there really.

    The Marder example may sound good, but it also isn’t without problems. Despite its advanced age, the system is quite complex. How would the Ukrainians get the necessary training? How would spare parts be delivered? Who would take care of maintenance?

    Not only that, but it would likely take months to get them ready for deployment. If Ukrainian soldiers were to end up dying because the Germans delivered junk, it wouldn't likely be Rheinmetall's problem. The government in Berlin would have to bear responsibility.

    The message from the Chancellery is clear: "Why the rush?" After all, the 100 tanks in question are not decisive for the outcome of the war. They say the inquiry about the Marders first came in last Friday and that they are carefully reviewing it now. But it is already foreseeable how this review will likely end, and it doesn’t look good for Papperger.

    Some of the posting here about Germany gets ridiculous and hyperbolic + leaves a bad taste. Someone just tuning in from Mars reading along would think they were allied with Putin/Russia and invading Ukraine, or responsible for Russia's decision to do this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭ronivek


    Reports that a railway link in Russia near Belgorod has been "damaged". From that description you might imagine a bit of vandalism or something but this picture suggests it might have been done by military or paramilitary and be fairly substantial:




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,692 ✭✭✭Rawr


    I'm also thinking back to US strategy when they armed the Taliban back in the 80's to fight the Soviets. They had the option to arm them with M16s and the load of other US gear, but instead they opted to give them a load of AK47s and other Soviet-specific gear. The thinking was that if the Taliban succeeded, they would end up capturing Soviet ammo, which would be compatible with the gear they were carrying.

    So, my guess is that giving Ukraine Soviet design weapons & tanks will give them the option to use any ammo stores or equipment that they can capture on the field while fighting.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    That might be a secondary benefit but surely the primary one is that these are the weapons the Ukrainian troops actually know how to operate?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,692 ✭✭✭Rawr


    Oh that too for sure! You want them to just jump into these newly supplied tanks and drive them off from day one. The ammo thing is a secondary benefit, but a substantial one since ammo supply is a challenge, and grabbing abandoned / captured Russian gear is a handy and quick source if compatible with what you're using.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭deise08




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭ronivek


    It would make sense sure; but your suggestion would require a political decision to supply particular systems in sufficient quantities. That doesn't seem to be forthcoming. My point was in lieu of such political decisions surely some initial familiarisation could take place; even if only on small numbers of non-combat ready vehicles or systems.

    I mean if you're Ukraine with a relatively large defence industry who has had most of its infrastructure destroyed; you probably have a bunch of engineers and technicians who could be spared to work on new/different projects. Especially if they could do so outside of Ukraine and in relative safety.

    And furthermore if nobody will supply Ukraine with combat-ready and working heavy equipment; I suspect they would take non-combat ready heavy equipment if it was possible. Worst case scenario it's left sitting in storage somewhere; but it could make a difference if the conflict drags.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,547 ✭✭✭✭Alun




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,337 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    It (my suggestion & some ideas in your post) doesn't seem to require a political decision the Western media or hence a joe soap like me would know of at the moment.

    Ideally let Russia find out about it when this heavier + more difficult to use western stuff starts shipping (probably could not keep it secret that long I suppose).

    i.e When the weapons appear in Ukraine with soldiers able to deploy them, use them well in battle and maintain them etc. (Ukrainians, not Western soldiers/"advisors" about which there does seem to be a definite political decision made not to use here, for reasons there's been much arguing about on thread + I won't start going on about!).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    james heappey- all options are on the table if chemical weapons have been used in Mariupol, what does this mean really as all options are never on the table when dealing with Russia?

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,822 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    Listening to Ukrainecast and there is big internal debate within NATO about wether to give “big” anti ship missiles because it might provoke the Russians… they think small anti ship missiles should only be given…… crimes against humanity happening a few miles away and they are worried about giving the Ukraine missiles that are too big and effective



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Hopefully it means offensive weapons they can use. Although, I would consider Anti ship missiles as offensive as you can get which they seem to be supplying. But, can you imagine what would happen if Ukraine knocked out a Kirov-class battlecruiser or the like !



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45 tigerbalm_eu


    "all options are on the table" when uttered by a nuclear power – is diplomatic speak for: "the potential for a nuclear response". It is a nuclear threat.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    They didn't arm the Taliban and no the Taliban didn't exist during and after the Russian invasion and occupation of Afghanistan,

    They gave them AKs because they were cheap and the easy to aquire through Pakistan and the ak has superior range to the m16 which suits the afghans and terrority better ,



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yeah - lots of news outlets running with it in the last half hour or so. It can be taken as you say - Putin will have to respond to that with his own bellicose rhetoric.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,575 ✭✭✭rogber


    Me too. Grim. Especially with the UK supplying weapons to Ukraine



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,575 ✭✭✭rogber


    In theory it means what the other posters have said. In reality means a few more sanctions, a few more defensive weapons, and a few more thoughts and prayers



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,325 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    IF chemical weapons have been used. The defenders of Mariupol are fighting from a massive industrial steel plant with all sorts of chemicals laying around with shells flying. I wouldn't put it past the Russians using chemical weapons, but it seems a bit late in the day when at this stage it's just a waiting game until the cut off defenders run out of supplies. Russian propaganda is obvious because they're used to dealing with a gullible population, but Ukraine is fighting for her life and they're using propaganda too. They'd be stupid not to and they're not stupid. They want/need the West to up our game and supply more weapons and an escalation like chemical warfare would surely up the ante.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The odds would be bleak given the geography/position, but I think I'd rather do a, 'it's every chap for themselves' and make a run for it rather than surrender to the Russians.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 665 ✭✭✭goldenmick


    I'm not knowledgeable on the technical side of weapons of war but it's fairly obvious that the game changers for Ukraine would be long range missile systems, of the kind or better than Russia are currently pounding them with, and attack aircraft - any kind at all that they could operate, and plenty of them.

    For the life of me I simply cannot understand the reluctance of the West to provide the exact weapons that could reduce this war from being bloody, drawn out and potentially millions losing their lives. It's not for monetary or technical reasons so you have to put it solely down to fear of what Putin may do. But then even that makes no sense as he already knows we are arming Ukraine to the teeth. There is no real cohesion or impetus within Nato which is a cobbled together mishmash of nations that clearly lacks any worthwhile or definitive central guidance and leadership. It's a sort of dog's already up the road situation before you remember to bolt your garden gate.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Looks like the jig is up for the marines in Mariupol, out of food and ammo so no choice but to surrender



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,837 ✭✭✭Nermal


    If you insist on viewing the conflict as a morality play, you're never going to understand.

    https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1513465634511761410



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,416 ✭✭✭sjb25


    Means we will give them as little as possible so we dont piss putin of to much but enough not to let putin win either



This discussion has been closed.
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