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How can we integrate Unionism into a possible United Ireland?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,863 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    UK is 11th least corrupt country in the world out of 180 so it would seem that Transparency International, the leading commentator on this doesn't agree with that perspective on the UK as a whole. Probably off-topic for this thread.

    As for NI, if judged on its own, it would be very far down the list, well below most EU countries, thanks mainly to the actions of the two main parties up there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,011 ✭✭✭growleaves


    Yes you beat me to it but I was going to say that London would fare badly on an internal corruption index of the UK.

    Least corrupt maybe the Hebrides?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,686 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,863 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Corruption is endemic in Northern Ireland, the RHI scandal, the Covid-19 funding siphoned off to Sinn Fein, the corrupt appointments of party lackeys to postions like the Policing Boards, some of which corruption is actually legislated for!!! Imagine that, putting into legislation corrupt practices in order to make them legal!!

    Don't need statistics to see all that. All of it the responsibility of the two biggest parties.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,686 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I can match each of those with similar scale issues here in the south and in the UK.

    What I asked for, which you don't have is data for your contention, not the feeling in your waters.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    This report only relates to the public sector in the countries identified and as the report highlights -

    Many high-scoring countries with relatively “clean” public sectors continue to enable transnational corruption – with consequences for their own societies.

    I think everyone knows what that means (London Laundromat is an example). As there is another report on the website about the export of corruption, I thought I'd look into that. To say I am surprised is an understatement. The UK (excluding Overseas territories and dependencies) actually fares quite well in this report. Now everyone knows about the London Laundromat so it does raise the question of how bad other countries are with exporting corruption.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 514 ✭✭✭FraserburghFreddie


    So where would that place Ireland in the league if you counted all the preferential tax deals to attract multinationals which is frowned upon by brussels ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,011 ✭✭✭growleaves




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    If you don't look for exported corruption, you obviously won't find any

    Screenshot 2022-04-05 at 18.39.33.png




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,116 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    The UK bribed its way up that ranking.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,680 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    I think the op question is growing more hypothetical by the day.

    the penny seems to be dropping even for sf. They have thrown massive money and energy at the UI push over the last months , with the wind of brexit and the protocol in their back. But Michelle knows it’s not happening in her lifetime. It feels strange to be agreeing 100% with Michelle 😂

    OWC, inwards and upwards

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/Sam-mcbride/michelle-oneills-priority-shifting-from-a-border-poll-is-highly-revealing-41523619.html



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,686 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    lol lol.

    Once again Unionism showing how inept it is at strategy.

    Quite clear O'Neill and SF are just making the DUP and belligerent Unionists look silly scaremongering about the 'Union subjugating Protocol' and concentrating on issues confronting people here and now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 514 ✭✭✭FraserburghFreddie


    It`s probably all in your disgruntled republican head that O`Neil has "a cunning plan"to get one over those dastardly Unionists.😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,680 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Do tell us more!

    are you suggesting that sf are pretending to be more interested in living costs than a UI just to garner some votes? Or do you mean they are savvy to only back winners and they see UI as a loser?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,686 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    😁 There's an election coming downcow - 'politicians will say more than their prayers' as they say here.

    Belligerent Unionism will try to make it about the Protocol and the end of de Union, the Shinners are not gonna play ball with that. Excellent strategy in my view.

    I can see Jim Allister going apoplectic red here as his scaremongering about an imminent border poll will fall on fallow ground.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,863 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I can see why she is backing away.

    A 70:30 result against unification would end the debate for 70-80 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 514 ✭✭✭FraserburghFreddie


    Francie,your post has more plot twists and intrigue than a Shakespearean classic.😲



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,686 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You go ahead and swallow it Frazer. No skin off my nose.

    😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,011 ✭✭✭growleaves


    They may as well wait for a good time.

    Though right after 2008 there were people saying unification was now dead forever because of the ROI's economic situation and that had become a non-issue by 2013-2015.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,116 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    Down to 45% who'd vote to retain UK jurisdiction. Brexit impacts yet to bed in, census on the way which will show lots of very elderly unionists and lots more young nationalists/others. Likely to be a pro-United Ireland first minister after the next election.

    Even if they win the first unification referendum, the pain of going through it will demoralise an entire generation of what remains of the Unionist population as they'll have to endure how the entire world, including most of Britain, supports unification of our country.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,680 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    This is quite enlightening, if a tad amusing.

    our No1 optimistic United irlander on the board perceives 30% for UI (and 33% in 15 years) as a positive result and a step forwards?

    he also suggests a clear win for unionists would be demoralising for unionists and good news for republicans - are you for real?

    and he reckons unionists will be concerned what rest of the world would vote for, when we have the gfa guarantee, secured by the ira campaign, of self-determination for Northern Ireland



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,686 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Nope Unionists are not a bit worried...not one bit. 😁😁😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 93 ✭✭Firminos


    Tough question , no idea



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,692 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    I'm never even remotely perturbed by low numbers on the, 'would you vote for a United Ireland tomorrow' question, considering that I would answer no to that question.

    The, 'In fifteen to twenty years' question is more concerning....but doesn't seem to align with other recent polls like the most recent Ashcroft one.

    I'd like to see the polling data itself though, because the numbers don't pass the smell test for me compared with other recent polls.

    Edit: I've looked it up, as expected it's not quite the doom and gloom being lauded in here. Don't knows are included in the totals. Asked if they'd vote for Unification tomorrow, 30% in favour, 45.3% against. So the devastating 30% is actually 40% of those with their minds made up.

    A quarter of the electorate undecided, stronger support for Unification among younger generations. With no plan in place and no campaigning done, I'd say 60/40 against Unification is a relatively healthy place to be myself.


    This is absolute nonsense though; how the bejaysus you think an opinion held now should put anything to bed for 70-80 years I have no idea. Well I do have an idea, you're fantasising.

    Following your logic, homosexuality would still be a criminal offence here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,686 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It's 'good polls/bad polls' syndrome again.

    These polls are irrelevant until a plan/white paper for a UI is presented. Support for a UI is higher than it was for Scottish independence when their referendum was granted. And support for the union much lower too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 93 ✭✭Firminos




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,686 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    5-10 years.

    And it will come when an Irish government indicates to Britain that it is ready to proceed with a proposal/white paper(it will not be based on polls or anything else).

    And if SF or a FF party (returning to it's natural roots, which is the only way to properly revive itself) get into government then I think that will be one of the programme for government items. It will be key to SF's coalition demands anyhow I would imagine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,692 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    Aye, I looked up the actual polling data. While not being entirely dishonest by saying, only '30% would vote for Unification tomorrow', without providing the context of, '45% would vote against it, 25% are undecided' it certainly betrays the attempt to present in a biased manner.

    The reality is that if we exclude don't knows (as is standard for polls like this when comparing yes/no responses), it is actually a 60/40 split, much more in line with what I expected.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,524 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Under the GFA it's for the NI SoS to call a border poll.

    They can call a border poll whenever they like, but I can't think of any reason why an NI SoS would want to, if they could possibly avoid it. It will be hugely controversial, destabilising, etc. So the issue we should be looking at is not when a border poll can be called, but when it must be.

    The GFA requires the SoS to call a border poll if it seems to them that it is likely to result in a majority for reunification. While it's up to the SoS to make this assessment, I think the pressure will be on them if the facts and circumstances point strongly to the conclusion that, yes, a border poll will likely pass - so strongly that it is not really credible for the SoS to say, no, they don't think it will.

    What kind of facts and circumstances would suggest that a border poll is likely to pass? A mere statement of intent by an IRL government that it is "ready to proceed" with producing a white paper would certainly not be enough, not least because we have no idea what the white paper, when produced, would actually say. On the other hand, I think opinion polls would be an important factor. Opinion polls will be conducted, and I don't think the SoS can be compelled to acknowledge that a border poll is likely to pass if opinion polls at the time are showing a majority for the union.

    That's not to say that planning by the IRL government, the production of white papers, etc, would be irrelevant. But I think their relevance would be in influencing public opinion - making reunification appear more politically realistic or imminent that it currently appears; influencing the (large, and growing) segment of public opinion in NI that is undecided, or open to persuasion, on the question; refuting the argument that reunification should not be supported because IRL is unprepared for it or not prepared to take the steps or make the changes that would make it feasible, etc. But none of the effects will be produced simply by a statement of intent to do some planning and produce a white paper; the planning will have to be done, and the white paper produced, before they have any effect. Then we'll have to see if that effect is a rise in support for, or openness to, reunification in the NI electorate.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,863 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You also have to consider that the White Paper could drive sentiment the other way.



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