Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

No it wouldn't be like 2008 as it's a different type of disaster. I meant rather that it one were to imagine the unemployment levels of 2008 and add in the current inflation, that it could serve as an example of where we're going.

There's a whiff of SSIAs in 05/06 about it.

Lane and Lagarde will be saluting in their ships of high house prices and pensions as they sink, having convinced themselves that what they believe and the actions they did were for the good of society. It would be an almighty state of affairs for the ECB to turn around and raise rates this year after all their statements less than a year ago about transitory inflation. Truly this would be a career-ending, heads should roll type of reversal in policy approach from the ECB.

What is funny is that the Russia Ukraine crisis only began at the end of February so it can't even be blamed for the crazy rise in the cost of living we have been experiencing the last 12 months, but it will be used by them (being the chancers and spoofers they are) to explain and justify their humiliating and dramatic change in policy approach.

Price stability is the mandate of the ECB which applies to mean that they must take action to try to influence and ensure price stability, typically with QE and interest rates, but it is evident that raising interest rates will cool markets and house prices which, if they decline, would indicate a type of paper recession and therefore the ECB would have caused a "recession" by raising interest rates. But that is where this is going; higher rates and more appropriate valuations - the post-mortem, in due course, will seek to determine whether the delay in taking action was ignorant and/or intentional. Perhaps the delay was to enable the big players in the markets to recalibrate and reposition, where necessary, to hedge from the impending "recession".

Not much to argue with their except that the oversupply filtered in during 06/07

And the "recovery" was aided by removing and drip feeding that supply back to market.

What if scenario?

Suppose we ramped up construction to accommodate refugees. I heard the minister talking about emergency measures that could be available to him ( he did not detail what they were)

Build loads of houses with materials at hyperinflated prices, suppose there is an end to the war and materials reset to normal valuations. What happens then. Stock of overpriced houses with the market able to build at the lower rates that undercut the glut built for refugees. End of war most refugees would return home

From what I'm hearing most are eager to work, They will be housed in clusters I'd imagine. Organise childcare within there own community or through existing infrastructure and let those who wish to work do so

We already discussed the ageing demographics of the EU. The influx of children and teenagers would be a shot in the arm exactly where the EU needs it from a population that aspire to be EU citizens

Being eager to work, and the jobs actually being available are two very different things. Hopefully they can find work, but until they do I will be sceptical

Its irrelevant wherever they get it from, because social housing is not intended for resale. Obviously cheaper acquisition is better from state budget standpoint, but once its been built/bought the valuation of that house is irrelevant as it is no longer state policy to sell on social houses.

These houses will not reappear on the market because they are social houses

Their is a lot of work out there especially in lower paid jobs where every drive thru you go through apologises for delays due to labour shortages, where shops are thinking about changing opening times as they can't get staff etc...

That's not saying that this is the only work that would be available to the refugees as I am sure that a % will be skilled that could help fill jobs in other areas.

What it will do is remove upward pressure on wage growth and as a result will help cool inflation.

Whether the removal of pressure on wages slows down house price increases or not will all depend on the level of skills etc..... If they had IT skills that were transferable then it would put downward pressure on wage increases in the IT sector. Without it you will see wage increases and as a result house prices will increase because people will be able to borrow more due to higher wages.

I spoke to an agent about selling an apartment we used to live in but now let out and he said the market reminds him very much of that with all the pent up Covid savings pushing up prices.

Europe can't afford to let them turn off the gas. If they did follow through, we would also be sunk with, quote frankly, socially and economically devastating consequences. This stand off really needs to end.

The markets don’t think it will happen. Gas hasn’t jumped through the roof today

Are there many men around today that would survive a few days in the bog cutting turf by hand 😁

The finest cup of tea, and a sneaky bottle of porter is after a long day in the bog with the sun setting over vews to die for