Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

The following is the volume retail sales index for bars going back to 2015..... If they are hopping they are selling a lot less products just maybe people are unwilling to pay the higher prices..

source: CSO - RSM05 Retail Sales Index (NACE Rev 2) (Base 2015=100)

I have skin in the game if there is a financial market slowdown as you mention the area I work in. The booming asset management industry is where I earn my crust, which is why I am making hay while the sun shines and protecting myself now from a slowdown or jobs crash. I have worked through the post-08 crash years so I know a slowdown, unlike a lot of young people today or even a lot of those who got burned in the crash and seemed to have forgotten what the cause was. But my concern is to do with my friends, family, colleagues and those who share my world view; the current housing market model is doing them no favours. For me, from what I see in Germany, having much cheaper housing is the bedrock for a stable and satisfied society. Giving people of all or no incomes a stake in the market creates happier and fulfilled individuals which is good for society and social issues. We have no functioning rental market whatsoever and FG have conned us into claiming the last few years that we should become more of a renting country when they really only cared about letting the institutionals feast on the carcass of the rental market rather than building something sustainable. We will pay for this with populists and of the loopy lefty variety. The ramifications politically and economically from this will be shocking in the coming years if you have only ever known FG and FF (ie all of us).

Being in breach of the EU cap on debt is thrown out as a reason but you have given no timeline of when the cap will apply; it won't kick in until we borrow the post-covid cash we need from them to restart the economy which is now slowing, with our growth forecasts slashed for 2022 from only a few months ago. Do you think somehow the country will go back to what it was like pre-covid? Because I can tell you with good certainty that it won't; big MNCs and tech companies growing their headcount as quickly in Ireland is now over and tourists won't be back en masse for at least another year, particularly American tourists. We need to invest in the country and in its infrastructure before the crash happens or we'll be left with little signs of prosperity from the last 20 years, having squandered the Celtic Tiger cash in our property market with little education, health or infrastructure investments to show for the boom years.

D’ya remember in September, deep into the housing crisis, when it was getting worse and worse every month (still is), when Leo Varadkar, leader of Fine Gael, said “You have to think- one person’s rent is another person’s income”- that sums them up completely and is why I will never vote for them again.

If SF do nothing but build social housing, at the very least prices stay near stable, as councils will no longer be buying/renting private homes to house social tenants, instead using the built stock dedicated for that purpose.

The only actual upside to this approach, is that in case of a downturn there would still be construction work going and the industry would not collapse like in the fallout of 08.

Realistically, they will not be able to "fix" housing - electing them is more of a hail mary attempt to do something after the previous tries have failed (FF FG GP)

Currency devaluations are desirable though as it makes exports more attractive. Countries devalue their currencies all the time, infact in the last decade there has been somewhat of a "currency war" whereby everyone is trying to devalue to be more competitive than the guy next door.

IF the EU fiscal rules come back then no more borrowing for us,. however given the aftermath of covid and now soon the energy crisis (deadline for switching Russian gas/oil payments to gold/roubles is April 1), who knows what the EU will do. The rules could go totally out the window - between Ukrainian refugee crisis and the big energy squeeze, EU members are in need of big capital spending now more than ever. I wouldnt count on fiscal rule reintroduction as being a certainty just yet.

...theres no other way out of our current situation than increasing public borrowing/debt, i suspect more eu rules are gonna be going out the window soon, as it ll be the only way to manage our economies, theres no harm anyway, many eu rules are beyond ridiculous at this stage, some extremely dangerous, such as euro deficit rules.....

...it was excess private debt that lead us to 08, increasing deficit borrowing/spending is the only way to counteract this outcome again, but to make sure this money is not used to further inflate prices!

strangely enough, the right decision to open our doors, might just increase eu support to help solve our property problems, lets see what happens....

What exactly is wrong with this? The refugees will be safe here from the threat of death due to conflict, and when the conflict ceases (which will hopefully be soon), they can return home and get to work rebuilding. If I were displaced due to war, I would be happy to have safe shelter and food, and I would be extremely grateful to the people who provided it.  Soldiers on duty overseas spend months at a time in tents, so I see nothing wrong with housing refugees in this manner, nor would I expect anything better were I in their position.

Further update on this:

1. Made a an over this morning €15k over original bid (bringing over to €55k over asking price.)
2. Was immediately counter offered by under bidder by an additional €15k (bringing current bid to €70k over asking price)
3. Still competing against elderly couple downsizing who clearly have the cash

Cards folded 🥺

Have they? I certainly hope not or things will absolutely get worse

Tá Broin orm.

The ruble is almost back to where it was before the invasion despite 70% of their currency reserves rendered worthless.

“Trust takes decades to build, but only a week to lose” - somehow for the western currencies this week is now.

None of us could have afforded college pre free fees so those that came to college going age when it was in play availed of it and as a result attained much better jobs contribute far more in tax and Less state supports

The greatest equalisation policy of modern times, mind you, it does need to be balanced better apprenticeship programs

A lefty policy that benefits everyone not least a massive factor in the level of FDI inflows into the country

For clarity and balance. This was in answer to what he would do with existing new builds in the pipeline, rather than their long term approach.

Remember the state was entering inflation linked leases with the building to be handed back in original condition for these properties which was of far greater cost to the taxpayer. If SF policies shock you, fg's are stroke enducing

Yeah, you kind of have to stop the people making the problem worse before you even attempt a solution and that is where we are right now